Who won this trade? How about both teams

Who won this trade? How about both teams

April 13th, 2023

While it’s too early to definitively say who won the offseason trade between the Twins and Marlins, both teams have reason to celebrate right now.

The deal, which was consummated in January, sent right-hander from Miami to Minnesota with prospects and for reigning American League batting champion . It was a rare instance of teams swapping controllable, productive veterans in an effort to get better.

So far, both clubs can be thrilled with their end of the trade. Here’s a look at what Arraez and López have done for their new teams in 2023. (Stats below are through Tuesday.)

What Arraez is doing for Marlins

Arraez is doing what he always does: making contact, putting the ball in play and racking up base hits.

Entering Wednesday, the second baseman led the Majors in hits (22), batting average (.537) and on-base percentage (.596), and he ranked in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate (6.4%) and the 99th percentile in whiff rate (9.1%).

Arraez’s .537 batting average is among the highest in the live ball era (since 1920) for a player in his first 12 games of a season.

Highest batting average in first 12 games, since 1920
Min. 40 plate appearances

  1. Frank Catalanotto, 2000: .588
  2. Bob Hazle, 1957: .556
  3. Stan Musial, 1958: .551
  4. Harry Heilmann, 1923: .543
  5. Bob Fothergill, 1927: .542
  6. Dave Chalk, 1975: .541
  7. Luis Arraez, 2023: .537

While he hasn't worn a Miami uniform long, he’s already managed to carve out a special place in Marlins history, notching the franchise’s first cycle on Tuesday night. Before Arraez came along, the Marlins were the only MLB team without a cycle.

Arraez has reached base safely in each of his 11 starts, and hit safely in all but one.

He has single-handedly raised the Marlins’ wRC+ by 21 points, their batting average by 34 points and their on-base percentage by 36 points.

The first reigning batting champion to be traded since (also dealt by the Twins) following the 1978 campaign, Arraez could become the second player in the modern era (since 1900) to win batting titles in both leagues. The Yankees’ became the first when he won the AL batting crown during the shortened 2020 campaign, four years after leading the NL in batting average as a member of the Rockies.

What López is doing for Twins

López established himself as a viable mid-rotation starter for the Marlins from 2020-22, posting a 3.52 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 119 ERA+ and a 3.59 K/BB ratio over 63 starts.

Entering his sixth MLB season, there was little reason to think he’d be more than that for Minnesota.

However, López has pitched like an ace in his first three starts, recording a 1.35 ERA, a 2.36 FIP and a 5.2 K/BB ratio over 20 innings. The right-hander has yielded just eight hits and owns a 36.6% strikeout rate, well north of his previous career high (27.5% in 2021).

López has faced a soft schedule -- his first two starts were against the Royals and Marlins, who rank 30th and 28th in MLB in runs per game, respectively -- but the level of competition isn’t the only reason for his dominance thus far.

Rather, his arsenal looks markedly different than it did in previous seasons.

López’s four-seam fastball velocity is up 1.7 mph from last season, and his whiff rate on four-seamers has skyrocketed to 34.2% after sitting around 22% previously. It’s an elite figure among starting pitchers.

Highest four-seam fastball whiff rate, SP, 2023
Min. 25 swings on four-seamers

  1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 41.8%
  2. Jacob deGrom (TEX): 36%
  3. Michael Kopech (CWS): 34.8%
  4. Pablo López (MIN): 34.2%
  5. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 33.3%

López also has successfully introduced a new pitch -- the sweeper, a type of slider characterized by horizontal movement.

From 2020-22, more than 90% of the pitches López threw were either fastballs (four-seamers, sinkers and cutters) or changeups. Adding a sweeper has not only brought more variety to his repertoire but also given him a weapon that has been largely untouchable.

In 14 plate appearances ending on sweepers this season, López has allowed just one hit and collected nine strikeouts. Batters have swung and missed on 20 of their 33 swings against his sweeper -- his 60.6% whiff rate on the pitch is one of the highest any pitcher has recorded with any individual pitch type.

Highest whiff rate on single pitch type, 2023
Min. 25 swings against that pitch type

  • 1. Ronel Blanco (HOU), slider: 61.3%
  • 2. Pablo López (MIN), sweeper: 60.6%
  • 3-T. Trevor Richards (TOR), changeup: 57.7%
  • 3-T. Spencer Strider (ATL), slider: 57.7%
  • 5. Ian Hamilton (NYY), slider: 55.2%

López's overall whiff rate has spiked to 37.1%, putting him in the 91st percentile, and his chase rate is one of the highest in MLB at 42%, reflecting the effectiveness of his sweeper.

Runs have been hard to come by for the Twins so far, but the club is leading the AL Central thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has been one of the best in baseball, holding opponents to fewer than three runs per game. López, who started on Opening Day, has helped to set the tone at the top of Minnesota's rotation.