NEW YORK -- To understand one worrying start by Kevin Gausman, let’s flip the calendar back exactly one year to last April 6.

That day in Kansas City, Gausman’s velocity dropped enough to raise some eyebrows, but those numbers weren’t canaries in the coal mine warning of something worse to come. That’s why there’s nothing alarming about Gausman’s velocities dipping down to nearly identical levels in Saturday night’s 9-8 loss at Yankee Stadium.

The only difference? It didn’t work this time.

Gausman lasted just 1 1/3 innings, allowing six runs (five earned) as he battled through the Yankees’ lineup with pitches that barely resembled his best stuff. A year ago on this day, Gausman masterfully danced through the Royals for six scoreless innings, but this shows how little margin for error Gausman has when his pitches aren’t doing what they need to.

“I threw bad pitches to good hitters,” Gausman said. “I’ve made that mistake of throwing that pitch to [Aaron] Judge many times before, and it’s usually never a good thing. I wasn’t surprised by the outcome. He’s a great hitter. I could never get in a rhythm tonight, walking guys, just not my usual self getting behind guys. A rough night for me.”

Gausman’s Saturday velocities (compared to 2023 season)
Fastball (29): 91.4 mph (down 3.3 mph)
Splitter (21): 82.3 mph (down 4.0 mph)
Slider (1): 78.3 mph (down 5.7 mph)

Gausman doesn’t look at his velocity numbers much during a start. He either has it or he doesn’t, so there’s no sense cluttering his brain with the exact decimal points. He can feel it out there on the mound.

“That’s kind of the running joke, I’m 88 to 98,” Gausman said. “They don’t know what they’re going to get. I don’t know what I’m going to get, either. I think it was just cold weather more than anything. My first two innings, if you’re going to get to me, that’s when you’re going to get to me. Unfortunately, that was obviously the case tonight.”

The two home runs Gausman allowed in the first inning to Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were both on pitches in this range, first on an 83.7 mph splitter and then on a 91.3 mph fastball. A pitcher can still survive with those numbers in 2024, but only if he’s doing everything else perfectly.

“It’s just about locating a little bit better,” said manager John Schneider. “He had Judge 0-2 on two heaters and then threw a splitter that was just down and in. When he doesn’t really have that velocity, he does a really good job of executing, but tonight just made a couple of bad pitches.”

Looking back to 2023 again, Gausman’s average velocities bounced up and down dramatically through the early months of the season. His velocity would be there one day -- just like he was in his opening start in St. Petersburg on March 31 -- then drop back down the next. This cycle repeated itself for nearly two months. After last season’s April 6 start, where his fastball averaged just 91.3 mph (nearly identical to Saturday), it jumped to an average of 95 mph in his very next start. There’s no reason that won’t happen again.

The Blue Jays nearly bailed Gausman out with a late rally, scoring six runs over the final three innings and falling just short in the ninth. Given everything Gausman has done for this organization as its ace for the past two seasons, he deserves to get bailed out every once in a while, but the 9-2 deficit the Blue Jays fell into early was just too deep.

Gausman called this his “first start out of Florida,” and after months spent in the heat and humidity, the cold and wind in the Bronx on Saturday had to be jarring. In Gausman’s own dry, humorous way, he often mentions that he’s not getting any younger, and we’ve seen similar situations with other veteran pitchers on this roster who are looking for those final few ticks on their velocity coming out of camp.

The numbers look a little more pronounced for Gausman, which is why it’s scary at first glance, but he has been here before. He has done it on the exact same date, just a year ago. Gausman’s next start will come in that climate-controlled dome up in Toronto against the Rockies, and if last year’s lessons carry over, the radar gun will look a little more familiar.