After 'tough day,' Aguiar still making case for '25 rotation
CINCINNATI – Already eliminated from the postseason, the Reds can still use the remaining games in 2024 to take stock of what they have and what they might need for 2025.
When it comes to Cincinnati's rotation, there's both certainty and fluidity.
Julian Aguiar wants to be included in those plans, but the rookie showed he still has work to do during a 15-3 Reds loss to the Braves on Thursday at Great American Ball Park. Over four-plus innings, Aguiar allowed a career-high seven earned runs with six hits, two walks, four strikeouts and two home runs.
“What’s going to make Aggie good is his command, and it was off a tick today. He wasn’t perfect with it," Reds manager David Bell said. "The Braves were able to put good swings on the ball, and they were able to take advantage of that.”
Ranked by MLB Pipeline as Cincinnati's No. 11 prospect, Aguiar was given an opportunity he might not have received without injuries challenging the rotation. He opened the year with Double-A Chattanooga and worked his way to Triple-A Louisville before being summoned to the big leagues on Aug. 19.
Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott appear locked into next season's rotation. However, all are currently on the injured list and all have durability issues to overcome. Greene has been on the IL in each of his three MLB seasons and Lodolo has made four trips to the IL in 2024 after being limited to seven starts in '23.
Nick Martinez can opt out of his two-year contract after this season. Graham Ashcraft has been out since July and struggled before his right elbow injury. Reds No. 2 prospect (No. 32 overall) Rhett Lowder has made a good case with a 1.74 ERA through his four starts.
One other contender was removed from the mix when Brandon Williamson tore his ulnar collateral ligament on Tuesday. Williamson will need Tommy John surgery on his left elbow that all but wipes out his chances at returning in 2025.
Then there is Aguiar. Entering Thursday, the Reds had won all six of the 23-year-old's starts in the big leagues – including the last three against playoff contenders in the Astros, Mets and Twins.
“He’s been really good," Bell said. "He stepped in, and we felt that he was ready. He’s done more than his part to show he is. It wasn’t as easy today, not that it ever is. It was just a tough day for him."
On Thursday, Aguiar was tasked with keeping Cincinnati in the game as his lineup faced National League Cy Young Award favorite Chris Sale.
“[Aguiar] is a competitor," said rookie center fielder Blake Dunn, who hit his first Major League homer off of Sale to open the fifth inning. "I played with him last year. I played with him this year. He goes out there and competes. He attacks the zone. He fills it up. He misses the barrel a lot, gets guys to ground out, or lazy fly balls and stuff like that. Obviously today, he just didn’t have it."
Following a 1-2-3 first inning, Aguiar elevated a 2-2 sinker to Matt Olson, who led off the top of the second with the first of his two home runs in the game. There was then a one-out walk followed by a single, but Aguiar stopped the rally from building by getting a lineout and strikeout.
In the third inning, with two outs and a runner on first base, Aguiar issued a four-pitch walk to Olson before the next batter, Ramón Laureano, lifted a first-pitch sinker the opposite way for a three-run homer to right field and a 4-0 lead.
Aguiar didn't get an out in the fifth inning. He hit the first two batters – Michael Harris II and Jorge Soler – before Marcell Ozuna hit an RBI ground-rule double. Reliever Yosver Zulueta took over and surrendered Olson's three-run homer that blew the game open.
“Those are going to happen," Bell said of the fifth-inning miscues. "It’s not good for today’s game, but Aggie needs to experience all of this. What’s going to make him good is he throws strikes and attacks hitters. He’ll learn from it. He’s got another start to go back out there.”
Aguiar is now 2-1 with a 6.25 ERA through his seven starts.
“The big thing to learn is to not try and be perfect and continue to just try and make pitches and stay aggressive and stay on the attack," Bell said. "Everything about Aggie, he’ll be able to do that. That’s who he is.”