Juan Soto is headed for one of the largest contracts in baseball history, perhaps even approaching the $700 million in guaranteed money that Shohei Ohtani got from the Dodgers last offseason, if some projections are to be believed.

Ohtani, you might remember, is both a hitter and a pitcher. Soto just hits. But hitters this young and this good simply don’t hit the open market very often, if ever. In fact, there haven’t been many hitters with this statistical résumé through the age of 25, period.

Here are some of Soto’s key offensive stats during his seven-year career, which has included four All-Star selections, five Silver Sluggers, a World Series championship, a batting title and four top-six finishes in his league’s MVP voting:

936 games
4,088 plate appearances
.285/.421/.532 slash
160 OPS+
201 HR
769 BB

• Latest Soto free agency rumors

Even having that much big-league experience through an age-25 season is a rarity. Only 16 players have amassed at least 4,000 PAs by that point. When you actually factor in his performance, the list of comps gets even smaller.

Just nine players have reached the 200 homer plateau by the end of their age-25 season. Five of those players did so with an OPS+ of 160 or higher: Soto, Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Jimmie Foxx and Albert Pujols. The number of players with at least 200 homers and 700 walks through the age of 25? Just one. Soto.

In other words, direct comps for a hitter of this age and caliber are hard to come by. However, if we loosen the criteria just a bit, we can find some hints that might help in determining how Soto’s bat will age.

THE PLAYER POOL

We wanted to find players with a similar statistical profile to Soto who also achieved success at a young age, prioritizing power (HR), patience (BB) and overall performance at the plate (OPS+). It’s not an exact science, but it’s not meant to be. The point here is to look to the past for some rough context about what the future might hold for Soto.

To that end, we turned to Baseball-Reference’s Stathead for a list of retired hitters who debuted after integration (1947) and reached each of the following thresholds through their age-25 seasons:

100 HR
200 BB
140 OPS+

Given those parameters, there are 18 potential comps, and the stature of the players on this list lets us know we’re on the right track.

Of the 18 players, nine are in the Hall of Fame: Mantle, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Eddie Mathews and Orlando Cepeda.

Two others -- Pujols and Miguel Cabrera -- are likely to be first-ballot inductees when they’re eligible. Another, Dick Allen, has a chance to make it on this year’s Classic Era Ballot. And three more would be surefire Hall of Famers if not for their connection to PEDs: Alex Rodriguez, Mark McGwire and Manny Ramirez. Rounding out the group are Prince Fielder, Darryl Strawberry and Rocky Colavito, each of whom earned at least six All-Star selections.

Every one of these 18 players continued to perform at a high level through their age-29 season. All but one had an OPS+ of 143 or higher from the ages of 26-29, and the lone exception still posted a 130 OPS+. Looking at the group’s median value, here is how these players fared on a per-season basis in that span: 664 PA, 37 HR, 155 OPS+, 6.6 WAR

Unsurprisingly, there was some level of decline as these players moved into their 30s. Overall, though, the group’s performance remained strong from the ages of 30-33. Its median performance per season in that span looked like this: 620 PA, 29 HR, 153 OPS+, 5.1 WAR

The ages of 33-35 is where we begin to see a steeper dropoff, not just in performance but also availability. Only seven of our 18 players averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season from the ages of 33-35. Five averaged fewer than 400 PAs, and one didn’t play after his age-32 campaign due to injury. Here’s how the group performed on a per-season basis in that span, once again looking at its median value: 507 PA, 25 HR, 131 OPS+, 3.1 WAR

Of course, there’s a lot of variation here. Below, we’ll break up these 18 hitters into four general categories, based on how they performed from the ages of 26-35. Soto’s new contract is expected to be longer than 10 years, but we’re focusing on that timeframe. If Soto’s next 10 years look anything like his first seven, any value he provides beyond his age-35 season will be an added bonus.

The dream scenario: Mays (390 HR, 166 OPS+ from ages 26-35), Aaron (375 HR, 162 OPS+), Robinson (301 HR, 163 OPS+), Ramirez (381 HR, 160 OPS+)

The first two names in this group speak for themselves, with Mays and Aaron undoubtedly deserving mention in any conversation about the top five players in MLB history, thanks to their incredible combination of skill, consistency and longevity.

As a contemporary of Mays and Aaron, Robinson tends to fly under the radar a bit among the legends of the sport, but he had a remarkable career in his own right. The right-handed slugger was the first player to win an MVP Award in both leagues, with the second of those coming after he earned the AL Triple Crown at age 30 in 1966. That was one of five top-four finishes Robinson logged in his league’s MVP voting during the timeframe in question, doing so in his age-26, -28, -30, -33 and -35 seasons.

While Mays, Aaron and Robinson all made the Hall of Fame on their first ballot, Cooperstown has thus far eluded Ramirez due to a pair of positive PED tests late in his career. On a statistical level, though, he ranks among greatest right-handed hitters ever. Ramirez recorded at least 33 homers, 102 RBIs and a .976 OPS in every season from the ages of 26-34.

The very good scenario: Mantle (311 HR, 173 OPS+ from ages 26-35), McGwire (405 HR, 173 OPS+), Cabrera (290 HR, 158 OPS+), Thomas (314 HR, 156 OPS+), Pujols (359 HR, 155 OPS+), Jackson (293 HR, 151 OPS+), Rodriguez (388 HR, 147 OPS+)

On a rate-stats basis, Mantle remained one of the most productive hitters in the game as he aged, posting a 165 OPS+ in his final seven seasons. However, he missed a lot of time due to injuries once he hit his 30s, averaging just 118 games played with 24 homers per season from 30-35 and retiring after his age-36 campaign.

Cabrera, Pujols and A-Rod each followed a similar trajectory, stacking up outstanding seasons in their late 20s and early 30s before beginning to decline. From the ages of 26-32, the average season among those three players was 39 homers with a 163 OPS+, and they combined to win seven MVPs in that time. From 33-35? An average of 24 homers per year with a 125 OPS+.

It appeared to be going the same way for Thomas, who played just 20 games in his age-33 season and produced 28 homers with a 119 OPS+ the following year, a far cry from his average of 34 home runs with a 164 OPS+ from 26-32. But Thomas rebounded in his age-35 campaign, recording 42 homers, 105 RBIs and a 146 OPS+ over 153 games.

Jackson's production from 26-32 was a level below those four, as he averaged 30 homers per year with a 151 OPS+ in that span, but he also didn’t experience a steep decline as he approached his mid-30s. In fact, his OPS+ from the ages of 33-35 held steady at 151.

McGwire is a unique case in this group, as he actually had his best seasons after turning 30. The imposing slugger went deep 245 times (61 HR per year) with a 189 OPS+ from 32-35, including a then-record 70 dingers in 1998. McGwire notched a stellar 154 OPS+ from 26-31, though he averaged just 27 home runs per season in that time, missing significant time due to injuries from 1993-95.

The mixed-bag scenario: Allen (257 HR, 157 OPS+ from ages 26-35), Griffey (347 HR, 142 OPS+), Mathews (287 HR, 137 OPS+)

Although his lifetime 156 OPS+ puts him on par with many of the greats mentioned above, Allen has continued to fall short of the Hall of Fame due to his deficit in the counting-stats department, producing 1,848 hits and 351 homers. Allen averaged 32 homers and 97 RBIs per year with a 164 OPS+ from the ages of 26-30, a stretch that concluded with an AL MVP season in 1972. However, he played just 458 games and recorded 80 homers over the rest of his career, dealing with frequent injuries in that time. He retired after his age-35 campaign in 1977. The late slugger will have another opportunity to make the Hall as part of the 2025 Classic Era Ballot.

Griffey was a first-ballot Hall of Famer who finished with 630 homers, but he’s still considered one of baseball’s greatest “what-ifs,” with injuries undermining what could have been an even more prolific career. Griffey had 40 or more home runs in every season from age 26-30, but he produced 98 homers combined over 445 games from 31-35.

Similarly, Mathews’ best years came before his 30th birthday, and his offensive production sharply declined from 32-35 (115 OPS+). The Hall of Fame third baseman reached the 30-homer plateau in nine straight years from the ages of 21-29, but did so just once after that.

The disappointing scenario: Strawberry (161 HR, 131 OPS+ from ages 26-35), Fielder (129 HR, 131 OPS+), Cepeda (187 HR, 129 OPS+), Colavito (245 HR, 127 OPS+)

It’s tough to compare Soto to Strawberry, whose career was derailed by substance-abuse issues. Strawberry appeared in just 335 games after his 30th birthday. Ditto for Soto and Fielder, who retired after his age-32 season due to a neck injury.

Cepeda played until he was 37 years old and was voted into the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1999, but his candidacy largely hinged on what he did in his 20s. The Puerto Rico native’s production took a downward turn following his NL MVP Award-winning season at age 29, as the knee problems that he dealt with off and on throughout his career began to take their toll. He averaged just 18 home runs per year with a 118 OPS+ from 30-35.

Colavito had some huge seasons early in his career, averaging 35 homers annually with a 138 OPS+ from the ages of 24-31, a stretch that included a trio of 40-homer campaigns. However, the end of the line came quickly for the outfielder, who played just two more years (101 OPS+) after his final All-Star season at age 32.

Overall: While no two players are the same, it bodes well for Soto’s future outlook that we can count 11 of the 18 comps as successes. Even the players that would be categorized as question marks still had their moments -- especially before turning 30 -- with three winning an MVP Award during the timeframe in question. It should also be noted that injuries (or other off-the-field circumstances) were a prevailing theme among the players in the latter two groups. If Soto stays healthy, it's not hard to imagine his next contract going down as a free-agent success story, no matter how large it ends up being.