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LOS ANGELES -- Above all, one thing is clear about John Gant: He's been effective in 2021, including in Tuesday night’s 3-2 Cardinals win at Dodger Stadium.
In six scoreless innings, Gant scattered four hits and three walks while striking out four in one of his strongest outings of the season -- and against one of baseball’s toughest lineups, to boot.
“Loved Johnny,” manager Mike Shildt said after the game “He had more velocity than he’s had in the past. He was up to 95 [mph] tonight, changed speeds. … I just thought he was fantastic -- good rhythm, multiple pitches for strikes, and just looked in control of what he was doing.”
With the 95-pitch performance, Gant lowered his ERA to 1.60, which would be the fourth-best mark among National League starters, though he falls short of qualifying by innings. Tuesday was the second time in 10 starts that Gant completed six frames, and Gant said it was “nice to get a little deeper in the game.”
“I felt fine,” Gant said when asked if he thought he had any more in the tank. “I didn't take a look at the pitch count or anything, but I felt fine -- I felt like I was working pretty efficient out there.”
Though the results have been excellent, certain peripheral stats suggest that what Gant has done so far won’t be sustainable. His fielding independent pitching, at 3.97, is more than two runs higher than his ERA, the biggest ERA-FIP differential among starters with minimum 40 innings pitched -- and it would be the highest in Major League history. The high FIP is mostly explained by a lower-than-average strikeout rate and a higher-than-average walk rate; the right-hander concluded his start with just five fewer free passes (34) than K’s (35) this year.
“I understand the regression concept,” said Shildt. “But I don't like to put a ceiling on a player, to say that he can't maintain or continue to do what he's doing, because clearly he's done it for now a third of the season. … I don't know that we're going to do anything different, because what he's doing has worked well and [peripheral stats] aren't absolutes, either.”
The big key is that Gant simply has not allowed homers. He’s surrendered just one in 50 2/3 innings, one more than he allowed in last year’s pandemic- and injury-shortened campaign. His 0.18 HR/9 is third-lowest among starters with at least 40 innings pitched this season. This is one likely area of regression, as his 2.6 percent HR/FB rate is much lower than his career 9.4 mark. But a relatively low 36.9 percent hard-hit rate paired with a solid 50.3 percent ground-ball rate has been a recipe for success so far.
The other big component is Gant’s high-leverage work. This year, batters have a .109/.288/.130 slash line with runners in scoring position against him. Shildt cited Gant’s experience coming out of the bullpen as helpful for maintaining poise when the pressure is on.
“He’s a tremendous competitor, and he has multiple pitches he trusts,” said Shildt. “He doesn’t make the situation bigger than it is, and he just goes and looks to execute -- he's got a game plan, works well with [catcher Yadier Molina], does his preparation prior to the game, then they work together and trust what they see. And then he has conviction of what he's doing.”
Lou Gehrig Day Wednesday marked Major League Baseball’s inaugural Lou Gehrig Day, on the 80th anniversary of the Hall of Fame first baseman’s death from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The Cardinals’ players, managers and coaches joined the rest of MLB in wearing “Lou Gehrig Day” patches on their uniforms, with red “4-ALS” wristbands also available to be worn in-game.
The Cardinals will celebrate Lou Gehrig Day again on Thursday when they do return to Busch Stadium. For all charitable purposes, the Cardinals are working with the ALS Association, St. Louis Regional Chapter. The club has donated a suite for Thursday’s game for ALSA to host two families affected by ALS, both of whom will be involved in pregame on-field ceremonies. ALSA St. Louis Regional Chapter is also raffling off five Lou Gehrig Day-branded baseballs signed by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
— ALS St. Louis Region (@ALS_STLRegion) June 2, 2021
“It's clearly a devastating, debilitating, just a really nasty disease that, the more awareness we create for, and the more research we can create, obviously, would impact the ability to either prolong [lifespan], minimize [disease effects], or eradicate it,” said Shildt. “And so I'm glad that we're using a player of Lou Gehrig's stature in our game to create awareness for it.
“Lou Gehrig was a guy that I wasn’t able to see play, but was able to study and use as a role model for high character. You read about his history and read about his legacy, he was … by all accounts, very much of a gentleman, a guy that highly respected the game with tremendous integrity and character and clearly, a tremendous player. I have tremendous respect for anybody that shows up, and not only shows up for their occupation or whatever their passion is, but does it on a consistent basis at an elite level.”