Is Mauer’s election a good sign for future HOF candidates?
Andrew Simon
@AndrewSimonMLBJoe Mauer is a Hall of Famer, as the Twins great will be part of the Cooperstown Class of 2024, alongside fellow Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) electees Adrián Beltré and Todd Helton, as well as manager Jim Leyland (previously voted in by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee).
That Mauer made it to the Hall -- especially on the first ballot -- was perhaps a surprise to some. It also could be seen as a sign of the shift in the way BBWAA voters evaluate players. In some ways, Mauer was a bit of a traditional candidate, one with a wholesome reputation and an offensive profile highlighted by his ability to hit for average (as evidenced by his three AL batting titles).
In other ways, he was more of a new-school candidate. Voters had to look past his lack of gaudy counting stats (2,123 hits, just 143 homers), relatively short career (15 seasons) and the fact that injuries forced him to transition from elite catcher to slightly-above-average first baseman/DH for the last five of those seasons. Then there is the fact that catchers traditionally have had a tough time in the voting in general.
It can be fraught to try drawing sweeping conclusions based on the example of any one Hall candidate, as each player is unique. Still, it’s fair to wonder if there are future candidates who could reasonably look at Mauer’s first-ballot election and feel better about their chances.
First, let’s establish some criteria from which we can work. Here are some key qualities that Mauer brought to the table:
- Peak performance: 39.0 WAR (per Baseball Reference) over his seven best seasons, including five at 5.5 or higher; fifth-best all-time for a catcher, ahead of Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk
- Positional significance: 40.4 WAR over his final eight seasons as a primary catcher (2006-13) -- far and away the highest for anyone at his position over the same span
- Major award win(s): 2009 AL MVP, plus three Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers
- Black ink^: Three AL batting titles, plus two for OBP, one for slugging and one for OPS
- Strong team identity: Spent his entire career with his hometown Twins
^A term used to describe leading the AL or NL in a statistical category in a given season (represented by bold text on that player’s Baseball Reference page).
Now, here is a look at just some future Hall candidates who fit those criteria well enough to perhaps benefit from some of the same preferences that lifted Mauer, even if this is far from an exact science.
COMING SOON ON THE BALLOT
Buster Posey (2027 ballot)
Posey is one of the two most prominent catchers who will appear on the BBWAA ballot over the next five cycles. The other is Yadier Molina (2028), who shares some similarities with Mauer but in reality is a much different sort of candidate -- one reliant on defense and longevity.
Posey is a much closer match. He, too, put together an outstanding peak (10th-best seven-year total for a catcher) and had a stretch (2012-17) as clearly the game’s top catcher from a statistical perspective. He also won an MVP Award (plus a Rookie of the Year) and a batting title and spent his entire career with a single team, the Giants.
On one hand, Posey falls quite a bit short of even Mauer in terms of counting stats (12 seasons, exactly 1,500 hits). On the other hand, he has one shiny factor in his favor that Mauer didn’t: World Series championship rings (three of them, actually). Given all that, it’s hard to imagine Posey won’t be joining Mauer in Cooperstown before long.
Dustin Pedroia (2025 ballot)
While Pedroia has some parallels to Mauer, he also makes for an interesting comparison to another first-time candidate from 2024: Chase Utley. The two second basemen had overlapping peaks, were key players on World Series winners and are beloved by their respective fan bases, in part for their intense, hard-nosed styles (Pedroia in Boston, Utley in Philadelphia).
Utley actually fares better than Pedroia in terms of both peak and career WAR, but Pedroia has the edge in other areas. He won a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP Award and four Gold Gloves. And while he didn’t score a batting title, he did lead the AL in runs, hits and doubles in 2008. He also won multiple World Series.
The question next year will be whether voters lump Pedroia more with his position mate Utley (who got just 28.8% of the vote) or with Mauer -- another single-franchise icon whose brilliant career was unfortunately curtailed by injuries in his early 30s.
Félix Hernández (2025 ballot)
It’s difficult to compare position players with starting pitchers, whose Hall chances have dwindled in recent years, along with their workloads. But if you look past that, there are plenty of similarities here.
King Félix spent all 15 of his seasons with one team, just like Mauer (and was absolutely adored in Seattle, for that matter.) He won one of MLB’s most prestigious awards (the AL Cy Young, in 2010). He led the AL in wins once and ERA twice. Over a nine-year span (2007-15), only Clayton Kershaw racked up more pitching WAR. And yet postseason glory was elusive -- Hernández didn’t get to pitch in the playoffs at all.
The problem for Hernández is that those nine seasons make up nearly all of his career value, and even so, his peak WAR falls well short of a number of his contemporaries, including the one-and-done Johan Santana. The best hope for the King is likely that he can stay on the ballot long enough to benefit from changing attitudes to starting pitcher evaluation.
STILL MAKING A CASE
It’s actually not clear if Votto will get to add to his resume in 2024, as he remains an unsigned free agent at present, despite indicating a desire to continue his career. Should Votto keep going, it may not be with the Reds, which would remove his one-team status, although he’s firmly established as one of the greatest players in that franchise’s long history. In many other ways, however, Votto is a good comp for Mauer (not to mention his position mate, Helton).
In terms of seven-season peak WAR, Votto ranks ninth among primary first basemen, behind seven Hall of Famers and Albert Pujols; several other Hall of Famers, plus Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabera, sit behind him. And over a 10-year span (2009-18), Votto ranked third in WAR among all position players, behind only Mike Trout and Robinson Canó. Votto also has the MVP Award and the black ink -- albeit mostly in less traditionally appreciated categories (five times leading the NL in walks, seven times in OBP).
Aside from Ken Griffey Jr., center fielders have not had an easy time on the Hall ballot of late. Andruw Jones is heading into his eighth ballot in the 2025 cycle, while Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams each made quick exits. (Carlos Beltrán is trending upward going into his third ballot despite being held back by his ties to the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme.)
It’s far from clear that McCutchen will fare much better, especially given a seven-year peak that ranks only a bit higher than that of Williams and well behind Lofton and Edmonds. With that said, the ballot is less crowded than it was when those three fell off, and the electorate is trending toward being more open minded. Cutch also has the MVP Award, and he was a top-three position player by WAR for a five-year stretch (2011-15), while leading the NL in hits, OBP, OPS and WAR once each while becoming a Pirates legend. With that said, that peak was probably just a bit too short when stacked up against those of others on this list, as McCutchen didn’t have another 4-WAR season outside those five amazing years.
Even more than Hernández, deGrom will be a stiff test of the extent to which an elite peak can outweigh everything else, especially as a pitcher. Perhaps deGrom will put together a couple more ace-level seasons in Texas once he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery, but for now, his resume rests heavily on a short window of all-time greatness with the Mets. That included two Cy Young Awards (plus a Rookie of the Year), an ERA title and two strikeout titles, as well as MLB’s second-best pitcher WAR from 2015-21. For a short time, deGrom was about as dominant as any pitcher ever has been, but even with the way attitudes are shifting, that may not be enough.
These last two names are more speculative than those above. In the case of Altuve, he could make himself a slam-dunk candidate -- statistically speaking, at least -- with a few more strong years. (It’s worth noting that he has been about as good as ever at the plate since 2022.) The future is hardly assured for any ballplayer nearing his 34th birthday though, and for the moment at least, Pedroia, Mauer and Utley all rank among Altuve’s most similar batters per Baseball Reference. Even if Altuve were to fizzle from this point forward, he would go down as an all-time Astros great, with accolades including an MVP Award, three batting titles and two World Series rings. Over the past 10 seasons, he has 17 more WAR than any other primary second baseman.
Yes, this is premature. After all, Judge hasn’t even reached the 10-season threshold required for Hall eligibility. At the same time, he’s entering his age-32 season, and health will be a major question for a player of his size over the life of the nine-year contract he signed with the Yankees one offseason ago. Judge has Rookie of the Year and MVP trophies -- the latter for a 2022 campaign that will stick in voters’ minds due to his historic home run chase. He already has two home run titles, among his prominent black ink, and even after just seven full MLB seasons (one of them the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign), his seven-year peak WAR is already right at the Hall of Fame average and above those of Tony Gwynn and Vladimir Guerrero. The point being: Even if Judge’s best is already behind him -- and it may well not be -- he will offer a compelling case.