For the name that he is, James Paxton hasn't generated a whole lot of free-agent chatter so far this offseason.

Maybe it's because Trevor Bauer has been commanding most of the early attention, and the top of the market has yet to move. Maybe it's because Paxton's struggles in an injury-plagued 2020 made you forget how good he can be -- his 6.64 ERA this year was more than three runs higher than his 3.54 mark over the three years before that.

Paxton can be one of the more dominant strikeout pitchers in his free-agent class. He's not too old, entering his age-32 season. And lefty starters with front-of-the-rotation potential are hard to come by. But he needs to prove to suitors that he has life in his arm.

All of that makes Paxton one of the more interesting free agents. He's one of the highest-risk and highest-reward pitchers. If you sign Paxton, you could be getting a steal … but you're betting on two big things, which go hand in hand.

His health

Paxton has always had both ace-level stretches and durability questions. He's never pitched more than 160 1/3 innings in a season, and he's never reached the 30-start benchmark.

If he is healthy, he can be overpowering. Paxton has averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in each of the past four seasons with the Mariners and Yankees, with an overall 11.1 K/9 since 2017. His strikeout rate has hovered in the 30% range every year, and he's right at that mark overall since '17. Paxton's K/9 and K% are both top-10 overall among regular starting pitchers over that time.

Paxton's K/9 by season, with rank among SP
Min. 20 starts for 2017-19, min. 5 starts for 2020
2017: 10.3 -- 13th of 122 SP
2018: 11.7 -- 6th of 124 SP
2019: 11.1 -- 12th of 113 SP
2020: 11.5 -- 23rd of 170 SP

But his health "if" is as iffy as it gets, especially considering the nature of the injuries he dealt with in 2020 -- first offseason back surgery, then a season-ending left flexor strain. Back and arm injuries are what sap a pitcher of his stuff, and that's what happened with Paxton.

His velocity

At his best, Paxton lets it rip. He maintains elite velocity deep into games, with the ability to reach the upper 90s even in the late innings.

From 2017-19, Paxton jockeyed with Blake Snell and Chris Sale for the title of hardest-throwing left-handed starter. But in 2020, his velocity dropped precipitously.

Highest avg. fastball velocity by LH SP from 2017-19
Min. 500 fastballs thrown
1) James Paxton: 95.4 mph
2) Blake Snell: 95.2 mph
3) Chris Sale: 94.5 mph
4) Julio Urías: 94.2 mph
5) Max Fried: 93.5 mph

Paxton's fastball velocity by season
2017: 95.5 mph -- 2nd among LH SP
2018: 95.4 mph -- 2nd among LH SP
2019: 95.4 mph -- 2nd among LH SP
2020: 92.1 mph -- T-18th among LH SP

Paxton's velocity dropped by over three full mph from 2019 to '20. From 2017-19, about two-thirds of his fastballs were 95 mph or faster, edging out Snell for the most of any lefty starter, and almost 13% of them were 97 mph or faster, just barely behind Sale. In 2020? Paxton didn't reach 95 mph a single time, let alone 97-plus.

That's worrisome. Without his velo, there's not much to separate Paxton from an average big league starting pitcher. And once a pitcher loses his velo, he might not ever get it back. (Paxton's velocity dip wasn't limited to his fastball, either -- all of his pitches lost a few mph in 2020 -- it just all starts with his heater.)

But the optimistic view is that an extra season removed from his back surgery, Paxton will regain his old fastball life, and with it, his frontline starter ability.

Paxton has shown a willingness to adjust on the mound -- for example, by mixing in more curveballs and changeups at various stretches over the past couple of seasons, in addition to his main secondary offering, his cutter. Still, those adjustments can probably only get him so far, considering the attacking type of pitcher he is when he's on top of his game.

If he's going to be a difference-maker as a free-agent signing, Paxton needs his fastball back. But when you look at all the teams that need starting pitching entering 2021 and weigh Paxton's ceiling against some of the other pitchers on the market, that might be a bet worth taking.