Inbox: Where will Jobe fit in rotation next season?
The MLB postseason is in full tilt and we’ve already seen our fair share of drama. Not surprisingly, prospects and rookies have been very much in the mix of all the action.
The Wild Card round has sent a good amount of the 10 rookies in the playoffs we highlighted recently home for the year, but from that list, we still get to watch Jackson Merrill (1), Luis Gil (4), Kyle Manzardo (5), Austin Wells (6) and Parker Meadows (10). And that doesn’t include countless others who are still hoping to impact baseball in October, starting with the top pitching prospect in the game, who is the subject of our first MLB Pipeline Inbox question this week.
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Where do you see Jackson Jobe in the starting rotation next year? Is he a No. 3 or No. 4 rotation pitcher? -- @StevieDAles97
I’ll give you a peek behind the Pipeline curtain a little bit. We sometimes get very protective when one of our big prospects is thrust on the stage like Jobe was in the seventh inning of a 1-0 Game 2 against the Astros. If you check the box score, you’ll see he was charged with giving up two hits and two runs in one-third of an inning. But if you checked our Slack channel, you would see arguments that the 22-year-old who is currently No. 5 on our Top 100 was done dirty.
His hit-by-pitch was a hit jersey. Then he gave up a bloop hit and a bunt single. Spencer Torkelson made a great stop of Jon Singleton’s bounder with the bases loaded, but catcher Jake Rogers needed to come up with the throw instead of having it bounce off his chest. Matt Vierling should have been ready to throw home on Jose Altuve’s fly ball in foul territory instead of hesitating and making a late throw to try to get Jeremy Peña out. The kid actually stayed calm and pitched out of trouble. The Tigers came back, obviously, and hopefully we’ll see more of Jobe in big spots because we think he can more than handle it.
To answer your question, Jobe belongs anywhere you want to put him in the rotation, stuff-wise. What he doesn’t have is a ton of innings under his belt, just 252 2/3 total when you combine all his pitching in the Minors, the Arizona Fall League and his brief big league debut (not including Wednesday’s playoff debut). But he’s ready, and as much fun as the Tigers’ “pitching chaos” is behind Tarik Skubal, that isn’t sustainable for a whole season. So let’s work with an assumption that A.J. Hinch will send Reese Olson out after Skubal and perhaps Casey Mize after that, assuming he’s back. Jobe has a higher upside than either of those two, but let’s ease him in, shall we? So I’ll guess he’ll be the No. 4 for starters, even though once the season gets going that assignment becomes somewhat meaningless. If you told me that by season’s end he makes for the No. 2 in a Skubal-Jobe 1-2 punch, I’d believe you. And my colleagues in that Slack channel likely wouldn’t argue.
Will Leodalis De Vries be a top 10 prospect in time for the Padres? What do you think? He was a different hitter the last half of his season in Cal League. -- @EVT_JClark
We tackled this one on the most recent edition of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, so check that out (there’s a good conversation with MLB Pipeline’s Pitching Prospect and Debut of the Year, Quinn Mathews, too!). But in a word to answer this: Yes.
The Padres have not shied away from giving aggressive assignments to their big international signees lately. It started, of course, with Ethan Salas, who made his pro debut in 2023 in Single-A and got pushed to High-A and then Double-A last year before spending this year with High-A Fort Wayne. The club did the same thing with De Vries after signing him for $4.2 million in January, having him skip the Dominican Summer League and the Arizona Complex League and start with Single-A Lake Elsinore. This time, though, they let him stay with the Storm all year, which I think was a good move, given that he spent all year at age 17. And as you pointed out, he really did start figuring things out in the second half, posting a .996 OPS from the start of July until mid-August, when a right shoulder strain landed him on the shelf.
We’re excited to see both him and Salas in the AFL starting next week and we think he definitely has the tools to be a top 10 type, while we hope the Padres perhaps let him go one rung at a time, unless he’s setting the Midwest League on fire next year.
Who is a good player comp for Aidan Miller? Excited for his future with my Phillies! -- @ChrisA0509
You should be! As we have said repeatedly, the Phillies got a gift having Miller get to them near the end of the first round of the 2023 Draft, with his hamate injury his senior year of high school keeping some teams from selecting him. All he did in his first full season was make it from Single-A to Double-A with a trip to the Futures Game in the middle of it all. He finished with an .811 OPS with 11 homers, 28 doubles and 23 steals. He’ll likely start next year at age 20 back in Double-A Reading. There’s a reason why we have him ranked No. 26 on the Top 100.
Anyone who has followed me and Jim Callis over the years knows we don’t really like comps, but I asked around a little, and the one I heard that I kind of liked was Trevor Story. Now, I’m not sure Miller sticks at shortstop, with third the most likely option, but when Story was making his way up the Rockies’ ladder, he played multiple positions, and it just happened that his first big league opportunity came at short the year after Troy Tulowitzki was traded. So I guess never say never, but they are similarly sized and Miller’s ability to hit with power from the right side is also similar.
I asked some other scouts and other responses I got were Ryan Zimmerman and “a little Gunnar (Henderson), but right-handed.”
It's fun seeing sons of former players such as Griffey Jr and Vlad, Witt Jr. Who is the next son of a former major leaguer we should be watching? -- @wvpirate
I’ll keep this to guys in pro ball, so that will leave out the fact that Jackson Holliday’s brother, Ethan (and Matt’s son) could be the No. 1 pick in next year’s Draft. A’s top prospect Jacob Wilson has touched the big leagues, but Jack’s son is still a prospect because injuries kept him from graduating. His contact skills are other-worldly, and I think he has the chance to compete for batting titles. Phillies outfielder Justin Crawford is Carl’s son, and he’s coming off a tremendous year (.313/.360/.444 with 42 steals), making it to Double-A. And Andruw Jones’ kid, Druw, got off to a very slow start to his career due to injuries after being the No. 2 pick in the 2022 Draft. But he quietly started figuring things out this year. Most importantly, he stayed on the field, playing 109 games and slashing .275/.409/.405. Those are the “sons of” in our Top 100.