How Barrios-Civale trade impacts TB moving forward

5:36 PM UTC

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ARLINGTON -- The Rays kicked off Trade Deadline season on Wednesday with a move that declared them as neither buyers nor sellers, but instead as something far more unlikely: a team with too much starting pitching.

Not quite a year after their need to reinforce their injury-depleted rotation led them to acquire Aaron Civale from Cleveland, the Rays sent Civale to the Brewers for shortstop prospect Gregory Barrios.

Tampa Bay didn’t have to search far and wide to fill Civale’s spot. Shane Baz will start against the Rangers tonight in his first Major League appearance since July 10, 2022.

“[Civale] was in demand, and there was a player we had a chance to get that we really liked,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander said by phone on Wednesday. “And we felt like we had someone in Shane that could come in and fill that spot. That was the thought process.”

With that straightforward explanation in mind, let’s break down three parts of this deal: Civale, Barrios and what it means for the Rays -- and their rotation -- moving forward.

Going out

Giving up top prospect Kyle Manzardo to land Civale last July was an aggressive move meant to bolster the Rays’ chances of winning the American League East, but it didn’t pan out. Civale wound up with a 5.17 ERA and completed six innings in only four of his 27 starts for Tampa Bay.

“Bottom line [is] run prevention results aren’t what he or we expected. These things, they can be fickle,” Neander said. “If you take the entirety of his last 24 months, I think that’s a pretty good indication of the type of pitcher he is -- and that’s a really, really valuable starting pitcher. That’s what we would have expected moving forward and believe that’s what Milwaukee is going to get.”

As a controllable starter with a solid track record, Civale was in demand. Everybody needs pitching. The Brewers weren’t the only interested team, but they really needed pitching. Unlike last year, the Rays had some to spare without hurting their chances this season.

“At the time, we really needed another arm,” Neander said. “Where we are now, we’re in a position where we could be on the other side and be open to considering moving one.”

Coming in

The 20-year-old Barrios joined the Rays’ system as their 19th-ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. He’s regarded as an excellent defensive shortstop and a strong baserunner with quality contact skills at the plate. He was hitting .325/.367/.429 with 18 steals in 61 games for High-A Wisconsin, and he’ll now report to High-A Bowling Green.

“It’s an elite shortstop with elite makeup and elite contact skill,” Neander said. “If you do find a little more impact in the bat, I think you’re talking about someone that projects as a regular. Even just with the contact skill being what it is, the defense being what it is and really being bought-in on the makeup, it’s a really good foundation, in our opinion.”

Moving forward

First, and most immediately, trading Civale creates an opportunity for Baz. The former top prospect took the fast track to the Majors in 2021, making seven starts in Double-A and 10 in Triple-A before debuting in September. But Tommy John surgery sidelined the right-hander last year, and a fluky oblique injury (sustained while picking up a weight) set him back this spring.

Baz still may have to shake off some rust in terms of command and execution, but he has the talent to be a second-half difference-maker. He showed his elite stuff in his last five starts for Durham, posting a 1.57 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 23 innings. Now the Rays need to see how that translates back in the big leagues.

Jeffrey Springs may not be too far behind, as the lefty has been pitching well on his rehab assignment. But there is no guarantee the Rays will move another starter upon Springs’ return, as they did with Civale for Baz -- at least not just for the sake of clearing a spot.

If Springs rejoins a rotation with Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley and Baz, it’s possible the Rays could find creative ways to use all six, keep them fresh and alleviate potential workload concerns in the process. Pepiot has already pitched more innings than last year, Littell is getting there, and Baz and Springs are each coming back from major surgery.

Does that rule out the possibility of another trade this month? Of course not. The Rays are always going to be opportunistic if the right return presents itself, especially if the postseason odds are stacked against them.

But they’ve won five straight series and 10 of their last 14 games, pulling a game above .500 (44-43) heading into tonight’s series opener against the Rangers. For all that’s gone wrong, they’re only 3 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. And the Trade Deadline isn’t until July 30. There’s still time to figure out what comes next.