How to beat each bye team in the Division Series

How to beat each bye team in the Division Series

October 4th, 2024

While we’ve seen abundant evidence recently that any team can potentially win it all if it can just qualify for the postseason -- of the four clubs in the World Series the past two years, three were Wild Card teams -- there are advantages to being a division winner.

The biggest perk is the bye that the top two division champions in each league receive into the Division Series, not having to take the risk of being bounced in a short Wild Card Series. We were reminded of those risks again on Wednesday and Thursday, when the American League West champion Astros were swept by the Tigers and the National League Central champion Brewers were defeated by the Mets in three games.

This year, the clubs with first-round byes in the playoffs are the Guardians, Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies. The Division Series matchups are set: the Tigers will play the Guardians, the Royals -- after their 2-1 win to sweep their AL Wild Card Series against the Orioles -- will face the Yankees, the Mets will take on the Phillies, and the Padres will face the Dodgers after sweeping the Braves.

Each of the teams with a first-round bye earned their positions by way of excellent regular season performances, but they, just like any club, have their weaknesses. Here’s a breakdown of how each can be beaten in the Division Series by an underdog looking to shock the baseball world.

ALDS: Guardians (vs. Tigers)
How to beat them: Jump on the starters -- don’t let Cleveland go to the bullpen with a lead

The Guardians’ bullpen is the best in baseball. Cleveland’s 2.57 ERA by relievers is by far the lowest this season, and with , and each sporting an ERA below 2.00, and with his 0.61 ERA looming at the back end of the ’pen, games can get short very quickly if you’re trailing.

The key for the Tigers in the ALDS will be to score early and often against Cleveland’s starting pitchers. That is not as tall of an order as it would be against the Guardians’ relief corps -- their starting rotation ranked 24th in MLB this season with a 4.40 ERA.

With ace and former Cy Young Award winner out after undergoing Tommy John surgery and both and optioned to Triple-A after each posting an ERA over 5.00, the rotation is the biggest weakness to exploit. If you’re the Tigers, you pounce early.

ALDS: Yankees (vs. Royals)
How to beat them: Make someone other than Judge or Soto beat you

and have been a historically great slugging combination this season, hitting 99 home runs and becoming the third pair of Yankees teammates to each have at least 40 homers in the same season -- Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig did that three times and Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris did so in 1961.

But there’s a problem for the Yankees -- the rest of the lineup doesn’t pack much of a punch. Outside the Judge-Soto duo, no qualified Yankees hitter has an OPS above .800.

The task for the Royals’ pitching staff certainly won’t be easy, but it is straightforward: Don’t let Judge or Soto beat you. Make the other hitters in the lineup deliver the big hit. Kansas City has the personnel to make it happen, particularly among its starting pitchers -- and headline a rotation that finished second in MLB with a 3.55 ERA.

NLDS: Dodgers (vs. Padres)
How to beat them: Take advantage of a thin starting rotation

The Dodgers have been in the postseason for 12 consecutive years, but they have only one World Series title to show for it, winning it the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The club has, for much of that period, been a powerhouse both on the mound and at the plate. But while they have one of the most potent lineups in the game this year led by NL MVP frontrunner , the pitching staff is a different story, particularly among the starters.

The starting rotation depth was an issue throughout the regular season, and as the Dodgers enter the playoffs, they’ll be without key offseason acquisition -- as well as right-hander and decorated veteran (at least for the Division Series).

Meanwhile, will be making his postseason debut and , who has been excellent for most of the year, has struggled of late (6.43 ERA over his final three regular season starts). hasn't yet found his form from before he underwent Tommy John surgery, posting a 5.38 ERA over 16 starts during the regular season.

It will be a tough road for the Dodgers to get to and win the World Series given the state of their rotation, and the Padres can focus on L.A.’s glaring weakness by putting early pressure on the starting pitchers. San Diego has had success this year against Yamamoto, in particular, scoring eight runs over six innings in two games against the right-hander.

NLDS: Phillies (vs. Mets)
How to beat them: Make them chase the breaking stuff

The Phillies have a tremendous one-two punch at the top of their starting rotation with and , two hurlers who were major reasons for Philadelphia’s World Series appearance in 2022. Right behind them are and , who put together great seasons on the mound as well.

At the plate, the Phils scored the fifth-most runs in MLB, and with stars like , and headlining a dangerous lineup, the Mets will have their hands full. But it’s at the plate where there is a potential vulnerability for Philadelphia, one that New York could exploit in its quest for an upset.

Phillies hitters feasted on the fastball during the regular season, collectively finishing third in the Majors with a .364 xwOBA against them. But when it came to non-fastballs, the Phillies had the fourth-highest chase rate (35%) and a 16th-ranked .278 xwOBA.

Phillies batters saw a higher percentage of breaking balls (32.9%) from opposing pitchers than any other team during the regular season, and the result was a 16th-ranked .276 xwOBA. And given that Philadelphia hitters just had a month in which their chase rate was 34.1% (tied for the third-highest chase rate over any month by any team this season), it appears to be an opportune time to go heavy on breaking stuff out of the strike zone.