How do the Rays stack up against AL East rivals?
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ST. PETERSBURG -- In a way, last year was the final American League East race of its kind.
As part of a more balanced MLB schedule, the Rays will no longer play 19 games over six series against each of their division rivals. This year, those AL East slugfests will be slightly scaled back to 13 meetings across four total series. That means a total of 52 divisional games per team, down from 76 in past seasons.
But the competition in the AL East is no different than before. If anything, it’s only going to get tougher.
Tampa Bay has been relatively quiet so far this winter, but it still has the talent to contend for another trip to the postseason. FanGraphs’ projected WAR totals provide a snapshot of each roster, and by that metric, the Rays rank fifth -- behind only the Yankees, Mets, Padres and Braves. It’s not hard to imagine some of those projections playing out if the Rays stay healthy and get star-level production from Wander Franco, Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe, Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow.
Let’s look at how Tampa Bay’s AL East competition has changed this offseason.
Yankees
Last season: 99-63, first place
Perhaps you heard: The Yankees re-signed AL MVP Aaron Judge and named him their captain. They also spent big on starter Carlos Rodón, giving them a potent rotation with Gerrit Cole and Rodón in front of Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Domingo Germán. Additionally, New York brought back first baseman Anthony Rizzo and signed reliever Tommy Kahnle.
But the Yankees also lost several key players to free agency, including Jameson Taillon, Andrew Benintendi, Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. They’re counting on prospects to eventually step up at shortstop and in left field, although the latter could be an area they upgrade before Opening Day as one of the clubs reportedly in on the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds.
The Rays went 8-11 last season against the Yankees, the only division rival who won their season series vs. Tampa Bay, but they lost five of those games by just one run. Considering how deep both rotations look, expect more close games this year.
Blue Jays
Last season: 92-70, second place
The Jays added longtime Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and bolstered their rotation with the addition of Chris Bassitt. They made a couple of fascinating trades, picking up outfielder Daulton Varsho for catcher Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to fill the void in the outfield created when they sent Teoscar Hernández to Seattle for setup man Erik Swanson and a pitching prospect.
They also lost Ross Stripling, David Phelps, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Raimel Tapia, but the Blue Jays still could add a complementary outfield bat and more pitching depth.
Where does that leave Toronto? Maybe a little less imposing offensively, but much more balanced. The Blue Jays have essentially rebranded their outfield, turning it into a potentially excellent run-prevention unit in support of a well-rounded pitching staff. It’ll ultimately come down to how their star hitters perform and how their top starters hold up, but they certainly have the talent to contend for the division.
Orioles
Last season: 83-79, fourth place
It hasn’t exactly been a “liftoff” offseason, but the Orioles’ rebuilding days are over. Despite a lack of major additions so far, they should take another step forward with a full year of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez.
You could see their year-to-year improvement through their record against the Rays alone: 1-18 in 2021, then 9-10 last year. Baltimore will be competitive again in 2023.
Baltimore essentially replaced Jordan Lyles, Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos by signing starter Kyle Gibson, picking up infielder Adam Frazier and acquiring catcher James McCann. They also brought back reliever Mychal Givens and picked right-hander Andrew Politi in the Rule 5 Draft, adding arms to a bullpen mix that impressed the Rays from the jump last season. They’ve said they want to add another starter, and they’ll make moves around the edges in search of incremental upgrades.
Red Sox
Last season: 78-84, last place
Their biggest decision was extending Rafael Devers for 11 years and $331 million, per a source, but there’s been a lot of roster turnover in Boston.
The Red Sox lost Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Tommy Pham, Eric Hosmer and Matt Strahm. But they stabilized their bullpen by signing Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodríguez and patched one hole in their rotation with former Ray Corey Kluber. The club will essentially replace Martinez with Justin Turner, and the Red Sox made a surprisingly big bet on Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida. Boston could still pursue a middle infielder and another catcher.
The Red Sox seem caught in the middle, with enough talent to compete but probably not enough to win the division unless a lot of things break their way. Still, with Devers secured, that path exists if they get better health from their rotation (especially Chris Sale), a star-level season from Trevor Story, the bullpen stability they paid for and big league development from Triston Casas and Brayan Bello.