How 10 teams can defy their playoff odds in '24

How 10 teams can defy their playoff odds in '24

February 20th, 2024

Last year's World Series matchup between the Rangers and D-backs is a reminder that anything can happen once the players actually take the field.

The preseason projections didn't give either team a particularly good chance of reaching the postseason in 2023, much less going all the way to the Fall Classic.

The 10 clubs below are in a similar spot entering 2024. The odds are against them making the playoffs, per FanGraphs’ projected standings (which are based on a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems). But as Texas and Arizona showed last year, that doesn’t mean these teams have no chance to get there.

Here’s what needs to happen for these 10 clubs to defy the odds. (Playoff odds are as of Monday.)

Cubs: 36.6%

Why the odds are against them: The Cubs won 83 games last season, then subtracted one of their best players, , in free agency (though Bellinger is still unsigned). Chicago is one of seven National League teams FanGraphs projects to finish at either 81-81 or 80-82. All have playoff odds ranging from 29.1% to 36.6%.

How they can defy the odds: Chicago could boost its playoff odds by re-signing Bellinger, but if the left-handed slugger ends up elsewhere, the club is going to need some of its returning players to pick up the slack. In particular, , and (MLB Pipeline’s No. 16 overall prospect) could be key. Suzuki showed signs of a breakout down the stretch in 2023, posting a 1.073 OPS after the calendar flipped to August. Morel, meanwhile, had 26 homers in just 429 plate appearances on the year. Crow-Armstrong has the potential to be an elite defender in center field, but it remains to be seen how much he’ll hit as a rookie. On the pitching side, a strong rookie year from free-agent addition could also help lift Chicago into contention.

Brewers: 35.4%

Why the odds are against them: The Brewers rode elite pitching to 92 wins and the NL Central title in 2023, overcoming a lineup that ranked 17th in the Majors in runs scored and tied for 24th in home runs. However, after the team traded its ace, , to Baltimore, its rotation might not be good enough to carry the club in 2024. More of the onus has been placed on Milwaukee’s offense, which ranks 20th in projected WAR for the upcoming season.

How they can defy the odds: It’s all about the youth. , , , and are all slated to play sizable roles for Milwaukee alongside (MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect) in 2024. If Chourio can make an immediate impact and some of their other inexperienced players also step up, the Brewers should remain competitive in a division that isn’t exactly a buzzsaw.

Guardians: 35.0%

Why the odds are against them: For the most part, the Guardians are running it back with the same team that went 76-86 a year ago, including an offense that ranked 27th in runs scored.

How they can defy the odds: The Guardians could potentially have one of baseball’s best rotations if and bounce back from injury-plagued seasons and youngsters , and build on strong rookie campaigns. That might be enough to overcome their offensive deficiencies and win what is once again shaping up to be MLB’s weakest division. The Twins took the American League Central crown with an 87-75 record last year, the lowest win total of any division champ, then lost (the second-place finisher in the AL Cy Young voting) in free agency without finding a comparable replacement.

Padres: 35.0%

Why the odds are against them: Coming off a disappointing 82-80 season in 2023, the Friars saw a long list of talented players (including and ) walk out the door via free agency and also traded and to the Yankees in a December blockbuster. Meanwhile, the reigning NL West champion Dodgers added , , , and several others. The D-backs also made a number of notable additions (, , ) after their World Series appearance. As a result, FanGraphs rates the Padres as the third-best team in the NL West, which is exactly where they finished in 2023.

How they can defy the odds: Simply put, the Padres need to get more from their returning stars. It’s not unreasonable to expect , , , or to perform better than they did in 2023. Another key figure for the Padres? , acquired from New York in the Soto deal. The 28-year-old mostly has been a reliever in his career, but he had success starting down the stretch for the Bronx Bombers last season. King is effectively replacing Snell -- the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner -- in San Diego’s rotation. His performance could go a long way toward determining where the Padres finish in the NL playoff picture.

Giants: 32.2%

Why the odds are against them: Like the Padres, the Giants have the misfortune of sharing a division with the Dodgers and D-backs, two teams that drastically improved after making the postseason in 2023. The Giants were also active during the offseason, but they still have question marks up and down their roster. San Francisco’s lineup lacks firepower despite the additions of and , and its rotation is inexperienced behind ace . With and sidelined while recovering from surgery (hip surgery for Cobb and Tommy John surgery for Ray), the team is relying on the quartet of , , and , who have made a combined 23 starts at the big league level.

How they can defy the odds: Unlike last year, when most of their free-agent moves flopped, the Giants need the signings of Lee, Soler and Hicks to pay immediate dividends in 2024. That might be a big ask, considering two of the three are making huge transitions -- Lee from Korea and Hicks from relieving to starting. Given the challenges Lee and Hicks could face, San Francisco is also counting on its top two prospects, Harrison (MLB Pipeline's No. 23 overall prospect) and shortstop (No. 39), to have successful rookie seasons.

Reds: 31.5%

Why the odds are against them: Projection systems are notoriously conservative, especially with inexperienced players who have little or no track record in the Majors. The Reds have a lot of talented but unproven players, so it’s not exactly a surprise that the projections aren’t overly optimistic about their postseason chances.

How they can defy the odds: There’s a world in which the Reds are this year’s version of the 2023 Orioles, who rode an impressive collection of young talent to a surprising 101-win campaign. Baltimore’s improvement started the year prior, with the club going from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 wins in 2022. The Reds could be on a similar trajectory, having increased their win total by 20 from 2022 (62) to 2023 (82). With veteran additions such as , and joining a young core led by , , and , Cincinnati has a chance to make another sizable leap in 2024.

Tigers: 30.4%

Why the odds are against them: The Tigers made progress last season, increasing their win total (78) by 12 from 2022 (66), but they ranked 28th in the Majors in runs scored and had a -79 run differential. FanGraphs projects Detroit to be around a .500 team in 2024.

How they can defy the odds: With burgeoning ace now fully healthy and , , and coming aboard in free agency, the Tigers have the makings of a solid pitching staff in 2024. However, they need to find a way to generate more offense. Assuming we aren’t about to witness a renaissance, Detroit’s playoff hopes may rest on its quartet of young bats -- former highly touted prospects and and current prospects (MLB Pipeline’s No. 22 overall prospect) and (Tigers’ No. 10 prospect in 2023). If those four produce, we could see the Tigers surprise in the AL Central.

Mets: 30.2%

Why the odds are against them: The Mets share a division with the Braves and Phillies, who have the best and third-best playoff odds in the NL, respectively, leaving New York with a narrow path to the postseason in the eyes of FanGraphs. The Mets had a busy offseason but refrained from making splashy additions, focusing instead on bolstering their depth after the highest payroll in MLB history yielded just 75 wins in 2023.

How they can defy the odds: Beyond their top stars, six players could have an outsized impact on where the Mets finish: the veteran holdovers aiming to bounce back from subpar 2023 seasons ( and ), the former top prospects trying to establish themselves as cornerstones ( and ) and the starters the team added on short-term deals in free agency ( and ).

Marlins: 29.1%

Why the odds are against them: The 2023 Marlins set a record for the worst run differential (-57) by a playoff team in MLB history, outperforming their pythagorean record (based on their run differential) by nine wins. Miami lost Soler -- its leading home run hitter with 36 -- to the Giants in free agency and is set to play the upcoming season without 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner , who is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

How they can defy the odds: While Soler is gone, Miami’s lineup could nonetheless see improvement this season if stays healthy and 2023 summer trade acquisitions and carry over the success they had for the team in a limited sample size last year. Chisholm, Burger and Bell only had 824 plate appearances combined for last year’s Marlins club. If things break right for the Marlins, the trio could have more than double that in 2024. Similarly, Miami should have for more than 19 starts, assuming good health for the 6-foot-8 phenom. Pérez finished his rookie season with a 3.15 ERA and 108 strikeouts over 91 1/3 innings.

Red Sox: 28.1%

Why the odds are against them: The Red Sox finished 2023 in fifth place in the ultra-competitive AL East and are projected to do so again. The other four teams in Boston’s division are all among the seven best in the AL, in terms of playoff odds.

How they can defy the odds: Like the last two years, Boston’s rotation is key to its playoff hopes. It starts with free-agent addition , who posted a 4.89 ERA over the past two years but has shown the ability to be a frontline starter during his career. If Giolito can recapture his past form and , and build on the positive signs they showed last year, the Red Sox might have a chance to sneak into the postseason.