This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell’s Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Close your eyes and pretend it’s seven months ago at the Winter Meetings in mid-December.

Remember what you were feeling when the Guardians signed free agent Ben Lively, thinking they were wasting their time with another long-relief signing who probably couldn’t hold up in the rotation if they needed him.

Think back to when there was a plea for offensive help of any form, whether it be via trade or free agent signing and the front office left Nashville with no deals done. The Guardians had just finished the 2023 season 10 games under .500 with the worst power numbers in the Majors.

The expectations were low. How couldn’t they be? This is essentially the same roster that finished 76-86 last year with even younger players getting thrown into the mix. Plus, they had first-time manager Stephen Vogt taking over.

Now imagine being told at that time that the Guardians would enter the All-Star break as the best team in the American League. I’m not sure anyone would’ve believed it.

Their offense has taken a huge leap forward. The bullpen has been lights out. The rotation is still working through some kinks, but they’ve made it work, with a big thanks to Lively.

Is this sustainable? They’ve given plenty of reasons to believe it should be. But let’s look at the keys to the second half of the season to make sure of it.

Second-half goal: Win the AL Central
They gave themselves a cushion with a red-hot start to the season. Now, the Guardians just need to continue the momentum in order to run away with the division. There will certainly be hurdles in order to do that, especially when it comes to their rotation. The Guardians are desperately relying on Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee to thrive in the second half and they’ll also need Lively to continue to be the source of consistency he’s provided in the first half to make this happen.

They need Matthew Boyd to be strong in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, and maybe an extra pickup at the Trade Deadline can help. But this is a team ready to relive the fun postseason experience they enjoyed in 2022 after a disappointing year in ’23.

Trade Deadline strategy: Buy
Maybe Cleveland needs to take away from its plentiful bullpen depth in order to secure a deal, but aside from that, the team doesn’t have many Major League trade chips it’d be willing to consider anyway. If the Guardians can put together a solid prospect package for a team with a decent starting pitcher who can help their Major League rotation or a Major League-ready impact bat (probably in right field or maybe shortstop), they know they need to do it. This club has already surprised the baseball world by entering the All-Star break with the best record in the American League (58-37). It doesn't want to spoil this possibility of contention.

Key player: José Ramírez
The honest answer is that there are six or seven players who could be listed here. The Guardians have been able to have so much success this year because they have been able to lean on different players at different times. They need Williams and Bibee to excel in the second half to help the rotation. They need Steven Kwan and Josh Naylor to keep contributing to the offense. They need the bullpen to be lights out. But without Ramírez, everything would become 10 times harder. So, the six-time All-Star’s power, RBI production and consistency at the plate will be critical for Cleveland yet again in the second half.

Prospect to watch: Angel Martínez
If he can make a head-turning impression in just 13 games, imagine what he might be able to do if he’s up for the full second half of the season. So far, Martínez has been able to handle himself in the outfield when he’s been called to play there to keep his bat in the lineup. He’s able to move around the infield. He’s already hit three doubles, two homers and knocked in four runs in his 47 at-bats. The Guardians have raved about the jolt of energy he’s brought to this clubhouse in this limited time and he’s shown that much more may be in the tank if he’s able to stick around in the Majors.