Mets, RHP Canning in agreement on 1-year deal (source)

4:16 AM UTC

NEW YORK -- Juan Soto aside, the Mets still need pitching to make this offseason a success.

Well aware of that deficiency, they struck another deal to address it on Wednesday, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25 million contract with right-hander that includes up to $1 million in bonuses, according to a source. The Mets have not confirmed the deal because it’s pending a physical.

Canning joins a stable of starting pitchers that may lack proven frontline talent but is growing deeper by the week. The Mets have a clear top four in Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and David Peterson, who should all make the Opening Day rotation in some order. Beyond them are Canning, Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill and José Buttó, who could wind up starting games as well. The Mets also possess some near-ready prospect depth in Brandon Sproat (the club's No. 1 prospect), Blade Tidwell (No. 8) and Nolan McLean (No. 9), among others.

The newest member of that family, Canning is coming off a down year that saw him produce a 5.19 ERA despite pitching a career-high 171 2/3 innings and making 32 appearances (31 starts) for the Angels. He struck out just 6.8 batters per nine innings, a career low, while featuring a below-average walk rate, suffering a significant velocity dip and allowing an American League-high 99 earned runs.

After the World Series, the Angels traded Canning to the Braves for outfielder Jorge Soler, in what amounted to a salary dump for Atlanta to clear Soler from its books. A few weeks later, the Braves non-tendered Canning, making him a free agent.

Despite Canning’s shaky run of events, the Mets are betting on his history as a capable innings eater. Before last season, Canning had a career 99 ERA+, which is almost exactly league average. He owns a 4.78 ERA over 99 Major League appearances, 94 of those as a starter. Since returning from a lower-back stress fracture that cost him the 2022 campaign, Canning has also been durable, throwing 298 2/3 innings the past two seasons. He was the Angels’ second-round Draft pick in 2017.

Whether the Mets can use their pitching lab to transform him back into a useful starter remains to be seen. At best, Canning could serve as a solid mid-rotation arm for them, throwing in the mid-90s as he did as 2023. At worst, he’s a $4.25 million gamble with an accessible Minor League option. The more pitchers like Canning the Mets employ, the greater the chance they’ll hit on one or two of them.

“That’s something that we talk about a lot -- the desire to ensure that we have eight to 10 starting pitchers somewhere in our organization that we feel really confident about that can contribute over the course of the season,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week at the Winter Meetings.

Although Stearns didn’t respond to a message late Wednesday seeking updated clarity on his pitching plans, the addition of Canning shouldn’t affect other rotation pursuits for a Mets team that’s been linked to Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler, among others. Likewise, the Mets remain candidates to trade for a starter.

But Stearns was noncommittal last week, saying he doesn’t necessarily feel the need to add more proven veterans to his rotation.

“We’re going to continue to evaluate the market, where we see an opportunity to bring in players that we think are going to make us better, we’re certainly going to pursue that,” Stearns said. “But with some of the [pitching] moves we’ve been able to make and are working on making, I think we’re getting to a level where it’s no longer a necessity.”