Mock draft: MLB Pipeline's final predictions
Jonathan Mayo
@JonathanMayo
Jim Callis
@JimCallisMLBThe 2024 MLB Draft is underway! To see live updates of all Day 1 selections with pick-by-pick analysis, click here. To see our experts' final predictions, read on.
As Saturday turned into Sunday, the Guardians still weren't divulging how close they were to making a decision about the No. 1 overall pick and they may not finalize their plans until shortly before the Draft begins at 7 p.m. ET in Fort Worth, Texas.
The frontrunners appear to be Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon and West Virginia middle infielder JJ Wetherholt. Florida first baseman/left-hander Jac Caglianone is still in the mix, with Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns and Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith more distant possibilities.
Below is MLB Pipeline's final 2024 mock draft, with each of us presenting our predictions. Detailed scouting reports, grades and video for all the players mentioned below are included with MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 250 list.
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Round 1
1. Guardians
Callis: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No. 4)
The Guardians' strategy appears to be maximizing the value of their entire Draft class, and Wetherholt is the top talent who would accept the largest signing bonus discount. (The assigned value for the top pick’s signing bonus this year is $10,570,600, and any dollar saved below that can be used on players elsewhere in the first 10 rounds.)
As a result of this, I'm switching to Wetherholt here after going with Bazzana in my previous four projections. In order of probability, Bazzana would be a close second and Condon (who will land the largest bonus in the Draft and could break Paul Skenes' record of $9.2 million) coming in third.
Mayo: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (No. 4)
You’re going to hear a bit about Paul Skenes’ $9.2 million bonus as it pertains to these top two picks. The first is the general buzz that Cleveland may not want to go above that with whomever it takes. That still leaves Travis Bazzana very much in the mix, but Wetherholt offers an option very close in skill, while also allowing the Guardians to be even more aggressive later in the Draft.
2. Reds
Callis: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
The Reds may prefer Condon, but if he prices himself beyond where they feel comfortable, they could turn to Caglianone or Burns.
Mayo: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
The other bonus-related scuttlebutt at the top is that Condon wants more than that $9.2 million threshold, which leaves him out of the 1-1 mix and could have the Reds looking elsewhere, though that’s still under slot for them. They’d consider Bazzana, Jac Caglianone, Braden Montgomery and Chase Burns if they need alternatives.
3. Rockies
Callis: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6)
The Rockies covet Condon and he has more leverage with the Guardians than Wetherholt or Bazzana because he has a higher floor in the Draft. If Condon isn't available, the Rockies will decide between Burns, Hagen Smith and Caglianone.
Mayo: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6)
I still feel like this is a toss-up between a college bat (Caglianone) and a college arm in Burns, but we’ll make it two college pitchers in a row for the Rockies after they took Chase Dollander in 2023.
4. A's
Callis: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Bazzana to the Athletics seems like a lock, though there was chatter Saturday evening that they could take Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz even if Bazzana was on the board. Texas A&M outfielder Montgomery is another possibility.
Mayo: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
If he doesn’t go at the top of the Draft, it does feel like he wouldn’t get past here, with the A’s likely not thinking he was going to be available. Caglianone, Montgomery and Nick Kurtz remain other bat options, with Burns a possible target if he’s still available.
5. White Sox
Callis: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (No. 9)
Bazzana would be a no-brainer for the White Sox. Otherwise, Griffin appears to be their preference, even over Caglianone and Wetherholt.
Mayo: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8)
Montgomery’s name is all over the top half of the first round, starting at No. 2. The White Sox are still considering Kurtz (college bat), Hagen Smith (college arm) and the top two high school hitters in Griffin and Bryce Rainer.
6. Royals
Callis: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
Before this weekend, it didn't appear that Caglianone could get to the Royals. If he doesn't, it's no secret that they love California prep shortstop Bryce Rainer and also would consider Smith.
Mayo: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake, Studio City, Calif. (No. 10)
This could come down to a choice between Caglianone and Rainer, with Hagen Smith a possibility as well. But Kansas City has always liked Rainer’s left-handed swing.
7. Cardinals
Callis: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 5)
If the Guardians pass on Wetherholt, he could get all the way to No. 7 and be the best-case scenario for the Cardinals. Smith and Burns both would be attractive to St. Louis, which also has interest in Rainer and maybe Kurtz.
Mayo: Jac Caglianone, 1B,/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
It didn’t seem possible that Caglianone would get to this part of the top 10, but here we are. The Cardinals could go with Hagen Smith if they opt for an arm instead.
8. Angels
Callis: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8)
Any player except for Bazzana and Condon could fall to the Angels, who likely would choose between Montgomery and Kurtz as full-slot options if the Draft plays out like this. If they prefer a discounted college bat, Florida State outfielder James Tibbs and Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore are options.
Mayo: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 5)
It had seemed the Angels were looking at bats, and they still could, with someone like Kurtz, James Tibbs or Christian Moore. But they also probably thought Smith wouldn’t be here at this point.
9. Pirates
Callis: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 7)
The Pirates could pop one of the consensus top 10 talents (the eight players projected above, plus Kurtz and Rainer), but they also could cut a deal with someone like Tibbs, Moore or Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge.
Mayo: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 7)
Tibbs is still a possible fit, as is Christian Moore on the college bat front, Trey Yesavage from the college pitcher crop and Griffin if they roll the dice on the toolsy high school hitter.
10. Nationals
Callis: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. (No. 10)
Rainer is the type of high-upside player the Nationals traditionally pursue, though we'll acknowledge that the consensus 10 best players rarely all get taken with the top 10 selections. Florida State teammates Tibbs and third baseman Cam Smith are other possibilities, and rumors of an under-slot deal for California catcher Caleb Lomavita persist.
Mayo: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (No. 9)
The Nationals don’t shy away from risk-taking and they could look back and realize they got the best player in the class with the best all-around tools years from now.
11. Tigers
Callis: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS, Austin, Texas (No. 28)
Barring one of the top 10 prospects dropping into their laps, the Tigers have been linked to Arizona high school left-hander Cam Caminiti for weeks. But on the night before the Draft, they were repeatedly tied to an under-slot move with Gillen. Lomavita also gets mentioned here on a discount deal, and Cam Smith could be a factor.
Mayo: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 12)
There were some rumors circulating late that the Tigers were looking hard at prep shortstop Theo Gillen here, but the talk of college bats like Tibbs or Cam Smith was also loud.
12. Red Sox
Callis: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 13)
The Red Sox also wouldn't mind an unexpected faller getting to No. 12. While they might be tempted by East Carolina right-hander Troy Yesavage, they'll probably grab a college bat such as Moore, Cam Smith, Benge or Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt.
Mayo: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 13)
The names I was hearing the most given this scenario were Moore and Cam Smith on the hitting side and Yesavage if they look to the mound.
13. Giants
Callis: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz. (No. 15)
There's an outside chance that Kurtz could last this long and the Giants would be his floor. If not, they'll probably take Caminiti or Yesavage.
Mayo: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz. (No. 15)
If they don’t go with the young left-hander, they could also be another team looking at Yesavage. If they want to consider a college bat, Cam Smith, Carson Benge, Vance Honeycutt or Tommy White could be in the mix.
14. Cubs
Callis: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 12)
As with the Red Sox, Yesavage would be a nice fit for another farm system that could use more pitching prospects, but the Cubs could find it hard to pass up some of the college bats. This may be Tibbs' floor and Christian Moore, Cam Smith, Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore and Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King also would be in play.
Mayo: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
I’m sticking with the college arm here like I did a week ago, over college hitters like Cam Smith, Honeycutt or Seaver King. Outside of some talk a while ago about big-time deals with the Angels at No. 8, this is the first mention of Walker Janek I’ve heard.
15. Mariners
Callis: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
The Mariners would prefer a college pitcher (Yesavage, Mississippi State switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje) but could take a college bat (Waldschmidt, King). Arkansas prep outfielder Slade Caldwell is a dark horse.
Mayo: Jurrangelo Cijntje, SWP, Mississippi State (No. 25)
The conversation may continue between Cijntje and a college hitter like King, with prep right-hander Ryan Sloan not out of the discussion.
16. Marlins
Callis: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 14)
If Tibbs and Christian Moore are gone, the Marlins likely would turn to Smith over King.
Mayo: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 14)
This continues to feel like the best landing spot for the third baseman, though the Marlins are also looking at other college hitters like Benge and Ryan Waldschmidt. Sloan could enter the equation if they switch gears to the mound.
17. Brewers
Callis: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (No. 18)
The Brewers are sorting through college bats such as Christian Moore, Cam Smith, Benge, North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt and King.
Mayo: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (No. 18)
College bats remain at the forefront of the discussion here, with Honeycutt also in the picture.
18. Rays
Callis: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS, Wauchula, Fla. (No. 29)
High school shortstops Gillen and Lindsey would make sense here, as would some of the college position players projected shortly ahead of them (Tibbs, Cam Smith, Benge), as well as Waldschmidt.
Mayo: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS, Ill. (No. 19)
Waldschmidt would be the college bat they might be most likely to look at if they wanted a college hitter, but I’m having them go upside on the mound in this last projection.
19. Mets
Callis: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 22)
The Mets are associated with several college bats, led by Benge, Honeycutt and King.
Mayo: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark. (No. 27)
In this scenario, it could be a decision between Caldwell and a college hitter like White, but I’m sticking with my prep pick from a week ago.
20. Blue Jays
Callis: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky (No. 23)
The Blue Jays are casting a wide net for college bats that includes Benge, Waldschmidt, Honeycutt, King, Sam Houston catcher Walker Janek and Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White.
Mayo: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 17)
Back to the college hitter bucket here, with King the choice over Waldschmidt, White or Janek.
21. Twins
Callis: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 17)
Also count the Twins in on college bats (Honeycutt, King, Amick) and don't rule out Louisiana high school right-hander William Schmidt. They also could try to push Schmidt to their supplemental first-round pick at No. 33.
Mayo: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No. 32)
Another college bat spot, this time with Amick getting the nod over White or Kaelen Culpepper.
22. Orioles
Callis: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 21)
Brecht and Cijntje give the Orioles two college pitching possibilities with upside. Waldschmidt, Amick, White and Kansas State shortstop Kaelen Culpepper are college position players who could interest Baltimore.
Mayo: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (No. 33)
They could look at an arm like Iowa's Brody Brecht here or other college hitters like Waldschmidt or Culpepper.
23. Dodgers
Callis: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark. (No. 27)
The Dodgers are pursuing high school shortstops but may turn to Caldwell with Gillen and Lindsey no longer available. If they'd rather have a pitcher, they could opt for Brecht, Schmidt or Oklahoma prep lefty Kash Mayfield.
Mayo: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 21)
It’s always felt like an arm here, with a high schooler like William Schmidt or Kash Mayfield possibilities, but I’ll give them the high-ceiling college arm in Brecht.
24. Braves
Callis: Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot (Idaho) HS (No. 56)
The Braves have taken under-slot arms with their last four first-round picks and could extend that streak with Whitney, who has helium. California prep right-hander Braylon Doughty, Brecht and Cijntje are other mound targets. Atlanta would jump on some of the college bats projected earlier if they slid to No. 24, and King might be the most realistic probability.
Mayo: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky (No. 23)
This could be a very good outcome for the Braves. They also could look at high school arms like Schmidt, Mayfield or Braylon Doughty.
25. Padres
Callis: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City (Okla.) HS (No. 30)
The Padres could spend a first-round choice on a high schooler for the ninth consecutive Draft by going for Mayfield, right-hander Ryan Sloan (Illinois), outfielder PJ Morlando (South Carolina), Schmidt or Doughty. Gillen or Lindsey might be obvious choices if they get this far.
Mayo: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, La. (No. 16)
The prep streak for the Padres continue, as they could opt for Schmidt, Mayfield or Doughty on the mound; Gillen or Kellon Lindsey from the high school shortstop group are also in play.
26. Yankees
Callis: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State (No. 25)
The Yankees want pitching and would be delighted to find Cijntje available. They also like high school arms Doughty, Mayfield and Bryce Meccage (New Jersey). Position players in their sights include White and New Jersey prep shortstop Luke Dickerson.
Mayo: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS, Calif. (No. 36)
It’s felt for the last little while like the Yankees were leaning arm here, with Doughty perhaps the best option with the college pitchers they liked off the board. White or Mississippi State's Dakota Jordan are of interest from the college hitter crop.
27. Phillies
Callis: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (No. 33)
The Phillies are pursuing college bats such as Lomavita, White, Amick and Culpepper. High school options include Morlando among hitters and Mayfield, Sloan, Schmidt and Doughty among pitchers.
Mayo: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State (No. 20)
They’re obviously not afraid of taking high schoolers, so they might consider Mayfield on the mound or Gillen and Lindsey in the field.
28. Astros
Callis: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (No. 32)
Amick, Nebraska prep shortstop Tyson Lewis, the college catchers and Virginia shortstop Griff O'Ferrall could be on the Astros' short list.
Mayo: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS, Tex. (No. 28)
They could look at the college catchers still available (Malcolm Moore, Janek) as well.
29. D-backs
Callis: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (No. 26)
With picks 29, 31 and 35, the Diamondbacks get mentioned with a slew of players, including college bats (the three catchers, Amick, Culpepper, Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan), high school position players (Caldwell, Morlando, Lewis) and prep arms (Mayfield, Sloan, Schmidt).
Mayo: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (No. 22)
There’s a very good chance he goes higher than this given his tools, though the swing-and-miss concerns have not gone away. If he’s off the board, Malcolm Moore or Janek could be of interest.
30. Rangers
Callis: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston (No. 24)
College catchers look like the priority for the Rangers, who also have been tied to Caldwell and the second tier of high school shortstops that includes Carter Johnson (Alabama) and Wyatt Sanford (Texas).
Mayo: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston (No. 24)
They could look at a high school shortstop like Lindsey if they wanted to go the prep route, or Malcolm Moore if they prefer the left-handed-hitting college backstop.