Daily fantasy pitchers to target Monday

May 3rd, 2021

Mondays often mean a limited slate of games -- and that means picking the right pitcher to anchor your fantasy lineups is all the more important.

We'll try to help you through that decision by breaking down five of the most appealing options below, some of whom may be more obvious than others:

Tyler Glasnow, RHP (vs. Angels)
Key stat(s): 53.3% whiff rate with curveball since 2020 (best in MLB)
2021 stats: 3-1, 1.67 ERA, 39.2 K%

Breakdown: Glasnow has been an absolute force this season, racking up 56 strikeouts in just 37 2/3 innings -- including 41 in his last four starts. He's averaging 13.4 K's per nine innings this season after racking up 14.3 in 2020 -- and he's doing it all while holding opponents to a .144 average this season.

The one concern for Glasnow will be the matchup. The Angels not only rank among MLB leaders in BA (first) and slugging percentage, but more importantly, they handle the curveball -- Glasnow's No. 1 weapon -- better than most clubs. Their 26.6% whiff rate against the pitch is the fourth-lowest in the Majors this season (and far lower than Glasnow's 53.3% whiff rate with the offering since 2020), while they rank third in both batting average (.256) and slugging percentage (.444) against curveballs.

Walker Buehler, RHP (vs. Cubs)
Key stat(s): .234 opponents' BA vs. four-seamer this season
2021 stats: 1-0, 3.16 ERA, 25.4 K%

Breakdown: Buehler's four-seamer was about as untouchable as it gets last season, with opponents hitting just .102 (6-for-59) with one extra-base hit (a double) and 23 strikeouts against the pitch. It's been a different story in 2021, as opposing batters are 15-for-64 (.234) with seven extra-base hits (including three homers) against the offering, which is sitting at 95.2 mph (down from 96.8 mph last season). It could be even worse, too, considering his opponents' xBA against the four-seamer is .282 and the xSLG is a whopping .612 -- much higher than the actual .438 SLG. The strikeouts have returned for Buehler -- he has 19 in his last two starts after striking out only 12 in his first three -- but he'll need to find a way to get the Cubs off his fastball in this one.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP (vs. Rays) - SCRATCHED
Key stat(s): Opponents are 0-for-19 with 18 K's vs. his splitter
2021 stats: 1-0, 3.29 ERA, 37.1 K%

Breakdown: Ohtani is a bit of a high-risk, high-reward option -- but if his command is on, watch out. His fastball is averaging 97.0 mph and has maxed out at 101.1 mph this season, while his offspeed stuff has been as unhittable as it gets. Opponents are 0-for-19 in at-bats ending in Ohtani's splitter -- and 18 of those 19 have been strikeouts. He has a ridiculous 73.9% whiff rate with the pitch. He's also held opponents to 0-for-6 with four K's and a 50.0% whiff rate with his slider. The one caveat, of course, is that he's issued 13 walks in 13 2/3 innings and he's thrown strikes on only 53% of his pitches. That's led to Ohtani completing five innings in just one of his three outings this season, something that certainly limits his fantasy potential if he's again struggling to consistently find the zone.

Steven Matz, LHP (vs. Athletics)
Key stat(s): .216 opponents' BA
2021 stats: 4-1, 4.00 ERA, 23.9 K%

Breakdown: Matz has slowed down a bit in his last two starts, allowing nine runs over 8 2/3 innings (9.35 ERA) after giving up just one run apiece in each of his first three outings (1.47 ERA). He may not rack up quite as many strikeouts as the three options above -- he has 27 K's in 27 innings this season -- but he continues to impress with his sinker. Opponents are just 9-for-56 (.161) with a .232 slugging percentage against the pitch in 2021 after hitting .322 with a .678 SLG against his sinker in his rocky '20 campaign (9.69 ERA).

Aaron Civale, RHP (vs. Royals)
Key stat(s): .147 opponents' BA vs. top 3 pitches (.262 vs. other 3 pitches)
2021 stats: 4-0, 2.94 ERA, 20.5 K%

Breakdown: Civale is incredibly efficient, pitching at least seven innings in three of his five outings this season. At the same time, he's yet to rack up more than six strikeouts in a single start -- and he has just 26 total K's over 33 2/3 innings. That lack of strikeout upside will limit his fantasy potential, but he's excelled at forcing ground balls (53.8% ground-ball rate) and avoiding hard contact (87.7 mph average exit velocity). Civale has earned a win -- a key for fantasy purposes -- in four of his five starts this year, and he'll look to add to that total on Monday when he starts opposite Daniel Lynch, who's making his MLB debut.

Did you like this story?

Paul Casella is a reporter/editor for MLB.com based in Philadelphia.