NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Everyone expected Shane Bieber to be on the trading block. But when Emmanuel Clase’s name was tossed into the rumor mill, it may have caught some off guard.

Bieber makes sense. As a reliable starter with a strong reputation, he fits the profile of so many of the recent trades the Guardians have made. If injuries hadn’t gotten in the way, he likely would have already been moved to capitalize on him when his trade value was higher. Even though that value has dipped, and he has just one year of team control remaining, everyone expected to hear Bieber’s name all winter long.

And then there’s Clase. The flame-throwing righty recorded the most saves in the Majors each of the past two seasons (although he also led in blown saves in 2023). He’s grown in his closing role, learning to take the ball three or four days in a row, as needed. He had more strikeouts than innings pitched in ‘22, and despite dealing with more inconsistencies in ‘23, he was named an All-Star for the second straight season.

The Guardians need stellar pitching to contend. The rotation has a bright future with guys like Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen. If Triston McKenzie is healthy next year, that will make them all the better. But the bullpen will need to be just as reliable as the starters in order to make up for any offensive woes, assuming the team still has a win-now approach. Trading Clase creates some more uncertainty in the ‘pen.

So, should Cleveland move him? It will depend on the return that it could get. But there’s more to the story. Let’s look at both sides of the argument.

Why the Guardians should trade Clase
Maybe 2023 wasn’t as impressive as ‘22 for the closer, but it was still a strong season. Clase’s numbers over the past two years would be welcomed by any contending team in ‘24. He had a 1.36 ERA with 77 strikeouts and 10 walks in 72 2/3 innings with 42 saves in ‘22. He bested his saves mark in ‘23 with 44 while pitching to a 3.22 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 16 walks in 72 2/3 innings. The numbers alone are convincing.

Pair Clase’s résumé with his contract, and suddenly the 25-year-old reliever is even more enticing. At the start of the ‘22 season, Cleveland locked him up to a five-year, $20 million deal with team options in ‘27 and ‘28. For his level of production at that cheap of a rate, it’d be hard to find a team who wouldn’t at least give the Guardians a call.

This means that Clase’s trade value is much higher than Bieber’s, which could lead to a better return -- including a Major League-ready bat (preferably in the outfield) -- that can bring some much-needed life to the offense. The Guardians don’t seem to have the financial flexibility to look at the free agent market. Improvements will either need to come from within or by a trade. Scanning the rest of the roster, there aren’t many other big-name options for Cleveland to deal to bring back a hefty return.

Why the Guardians shouldn’t trade Clase
First, Cleveland needs to get a lot in return if it’s going to part with Clase. If the deal isn’t perfect, this isn’t an arm to give up for less than it’s worth.

If Clase is traded, then the Guardians will likely move new acquisition Scott Barlow into the closing role. Barlow struggled more last year, but he has shown he is capable of being a reliable closing/setup option. Still, he doesn’t have the same reputation as Clase.

Barlow is slated to be the setup man for now, but if he ends up moving into the closer role, the Guardians will have to figure out who can bridge the gap to get to the ninth. Is Trevor Stephan able to rebound from a shaky 2023 season? Is James Karinchak able to bounce back after struggling more over the past two years? The Guardians no longer have Enyel De Los Santos, and guys like Xzavion Curry may be needed as starting depth. So Cleveland will need some more help in the ‘pen if it loses another arm.

The verdict
Only the Guardians’ front office can determine what’s best. All of it will come down to what other teams are willing to give up to get Clase. If the return can outweigh the risk of losing him, maybe Cleveland bites. But it has to be something that significantly improves this offense.