4 keys for the Dodgers to regain control of NLDS
LOS ANGELES -- After dominating the Padres in the regular season, it was easy to fall into the trap of thinking the Dodgers, who won a franchise-record 111 games in 2022, were going to roll their division rivals in the National League Division Series.
But after splitting the two games at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers are suddenly in a tough series against the Padres and will have to win at least one game at Petco Park to bring the series back to Los Angeles.
Here are four keys for the Dodgers to ultimately get past the Padres.
1. You go, we go
Through two games, Mookie Betts has been held quiet, going 1-for-8 with a walk. He has recorded only two hard-hit balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph.
The Dodgers won Game 1 despite Betts’ silence and lost Game 2 with Betts getting on the board with a double. That’s a reverse trend, as the Dodgers have been nearly unbeatable in the postseason when the former MVP records at least one hit.
Since the start of the 2020 postseason, the Dodgers are 19-4 when Betts gets in the hit column. On the flip side, they’re 1-8 when he doesn’t record a hit, the lone win, of course, coming in Game 1 against the Padres.
When the Dodgers were at their best this season, it was usually Betts leading the way atop the most dangerous lineup in the Majors. Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman have done their part at the plate in this series, combining for three homers in the first two games. In order for the Dodgers to start clicking offensively, they’re going to need Betts to set the tone.
“It’s a little more magnified, as it should be in the postseason,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “But it’s two games, and I expect Mookie to be fine.”
2. Starters need to step up
The Dodgers were counting on aces Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw to get them off to a hot start in Games 1 and 2, but both left-handers struggled to navigate the Padres’ lineup, each giving up three runs over five innings.
Now the Dodgers will turn to Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson to save their season. Gonsolin will get the start in Game 3, just his second appearance since Aug. 23. In his return from the injured list, Gonsolin tossed two innings and simulated another frame in the bullpen.
After getting some more work during a simulated game, the Dodgers hope Gonsolin can give them three or four innings. That might not seem like much, but the Dodgers need to get all they can from him, with no off day prior to a potential Game 5 on Sunday. Gonsolin has struggled with command in the past, however, and there’s not much room for error in Game 3. The Dodgers’ bullpen will be stirring early if Gonsolin doesn’t look sharp.
Depending how Game 3 goes, the Dodgers will rely on Anderson to deliver the game of his life in Game 4. With essentially a bullpen game scheduled for Game 3 and a potential Game 5 looming on Sunday, it would help if Anderson provided significant length.
3. Lengthening the lineup
The top four hitters in the lineup get all the attention -- and deservingly so -- but what made the Dodgers the most prolific offense in baseball was their ability to put together quality at-bats all the way down the order.
So far in this series, the Dodgers haven’t gotten much production from the bottom of the lineup. Cody Bellinger hasn’t looked comfortable at the plate and is 1-for-6 with four strikeouts. Trayce Thompson has struggled in his introduction to postseason pitching, going 0-for-6 with two strikeouts and a pair of walks.
In Game 3, the Dodgers will switch it up, benching Bellinger against the left-hander Blake Snell. Thompson will slide over to center field and Chris Taylor gets the start in left. Austin Barnes, who has had success against Snell, will catch and Will Smith will be the designated hitter, sending Justin Turner back to the bench.
4. Battle of the bullpens
Last but certainly not least, the Dodgers will need to win the battle of the bullpens. What looked like a clear Dodgers advantage heading into the series has not played out that way in the first two games. The Dodgers’ pen has been good, but surprisingly, the Padres’ relievers have been even better.
Though the Dodgers hope the starters can give them more over the next three games, Los Angeles is fully prepared to lean on its bullpen in case that doesn’t happen. The bullpen has answered the call through two games, allowing two runs (one earned) over nine innings. With Gonsolin not being fully stretched out, the bullpen could be the key in Game 3.
“I think that we’re in a really good spot because there’s a few guys that they haven’t seen yet,” Roberts said. “I trust them all. So I think when you’re talking about an extended series, the thing that happens is familiarity, which ultimately I think benefits the hitters.”
On the other side, the Dodgers’ offense is hoping to benefit from that familiarity against a Padres’ bullpen that has been lights out through two games. San Diego’s bullpen has held the Los Angeles offense scoreless over 9 1/3 innings. All eight of the Dodgers’ runs in this series have come in the first three frames.
“We’re 1-1,” Roberts said. “I think going into now if you look at it as a three-game series, I like where our offense is at. I really do.”