What could impact Twins heading into 2025 season?

January 4th, 2025

This story was excerpted from Do-Hyoung Park’s Twins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

This sentiment has been repeated over the last several offseasons and will continue to hold particularly true this winter: Regardless of what offseason moves are yet to come to supplement this Minnesota roster, the majority of the improvement and performance will likely have to come from within.

That’s because, barring a wholesale remake of the entire group, the fate of the 2025 Twins looks to very much revolve around the pitching staff that’s already in place -- with Pablo López leading a young group with plenty of depth -- and an offensive squad led by Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis.

With all those pieces already in place, it’s safe to say a large chunk of what the Twins can do to rebound from their challenging 2024 performance will be in seeing continued improvement, resilience and health from their core players -- around whom the offseason picture will likely revolve.

That is to say, regardless of whom the Twins do or don’t acquire, their '25 fortunes will continue to revolve around, say, whether Lewis can rebound from his deep slump to end '24, and whether Correa’s plantar fasciitis issues will finally be behind him, and whether Buxton can build on his first season playing 100 or more games since 2017, and whether Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Zebby Matthews and the like can continue the Twins’ pitching development pipeline.

With all that in mind, let’s look ahead to some of the factors that might impact the 2025 Twins:

One (realistic) FA target who would still be a perfect fit: LHP

Carlos Santana seemed like the neatest fit here -- that is, until he agreed to return to the division-rival Guardians, taking him out of the picture for a reunion with Minnesota. In terms of an affordable addition that could address a roster need, left-handed relief might then be the lowest-hanging fruit, with the Twins almost always preferring to avoid multiyear commitments to bullpen arms.

Coulombe could perhaps fit the bill here, and we already know the Twins like the 35-year-old lefty, considering it was with Minnesota in 2020 (as a non-roster invitee) that he reestablished himself as a big leaguer before his more successful stint in Baltimore.

One player poised to have a breakout season: RHP

Beyond two rocky outings to begin his career, here’s what Festa -- the Twins’ top pitching prospect before his debut -- did with his second-half rotation slot: 54 1/3 innings, 69 strikeouts, 22 walks, five homers allowed, 3.81 ERA.

His rookie season numbers didn’t tell the full story of the youngster with the big stuff who did everything the Twins want from a young pitcher: Miss bats, don’t give away too many free bases, keep the ball in the ballpark. They were thrilled with their first look -- and as Festa’s body develops and he gains more MLB experience, watch out.

One prospect to watch in 2025: OF Walker Jenkins (Twins No. 1, MLB No. 2)

Is it a cop-out to pick the top prospect in the organization and the guy who could perhaps be on the cusp of becoming the top overall prospect in baseball? Perhaps.

But that’s exactly why all eyes should be on him in what could be a huge '25. He ascended all the way to a Double-A cameo as a 19-year-old despite missing significant time with an Opening Day hamstring injury, and along the way, he showed every bit of the tremendous strike zone control and bat-to-ball ability (more walks than strikeouts) that have the Twins dreaming big.

One prediction for the new year: earns AL Cy Young votes

Ryan’s steady trajectory of improvement with his pitch arsenal took him to new heights in 2024, when he allowed his lowest career rates of walks, hits and homers and had put together a 0.99 WHIP that, if qualified, would have put him fourth among qualified AL starting pitchers.

A teres major strain sidelined him after only 135 innings in 23 starts, but if he can sustain his continued improvement across a full season, it would put him among the more effective starters in the game -- and he has already demonstrated high-end potential in individual performances.