Bednar frustrated, but confident All-Star form within reach

August 31st, 2024

CLEVELAND -- Amid an August where he’s struggled, blown three saves and has now been removed from the Pirates’ closer role, keeps coming back to one word and emotion:

“Frustrating.”

“It sucks, all those adjectives,” Bednar said. “But the one thing keeping me sane is that I know I will get past this. I have all the confidence in the world in my stuff, in me and I know that I'm going to get past this. As frustrating as it is, that's the one thing that's keeping me positive."

It’s been a trying year for Bednar, who missed almost all of Spring Training because of right lat tightness and then struggled throughout April since he didn’t have a normal buildup to the competitive season. He did have an extended stretch from May 4 to June 19 where he pitched to a 1.77 ERA over 21 games, finishing 19 of them, but then hit the injured list due to a left oblique strain.

Since returning from the injured list on July 12, Bednar has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over 15 2/3 innings, resulting in three blown saves this month. That stretch ballooned his season ERA to 6.32 to go with a 3-7 record and six blown saves.

"Obviously it stinks, especially when I was rolling, but that's not an excuse at all,” Bednar said about his injuries this year.

Pure stuff-wise, Bednar hasn’t seemed to miss a step from his All-Star campaigns from 2022 and 2023. The fastball still averages 97.2 mph, and his 34.3% chase rate ranks in the 95th percentile of pitchers. It has just resulted in fewer whiffs (32.8% in 2023 to 27.1% this season) and strikeouts (28.9% in 2023 and 22.9% in 2024).

"As frustrating as it is, the light is that my stuff still is there,” Bednar said. “I just gotta execute better. I have to make some mechanical adjustments and execute more consistently."

The execution can be seen in pitch location especially. His four-seamer, for example, plays best at the top of the zone, usually to his glove side. However, it’s dipped lower in the zone more often, which is where hitters have recorded most of their hits against it, as seen in this chart from Baseball Savant:

Bednar’s fastball stayed up in the zone more consistently last year, resulting in a .188 batting average against and 30.3% whiff rate. This year, hitters have recorded a .286 batting average against it, while the whiff rate has dropped to 23.4%.

When announcing the change Friday, Pirates manager Derek Shelton said he wanted to take some pressure off of Bednar. The manager clarified Saturday that Bednar’s removal as closer doesn’t mean he will be unavailable for leverage innings. He’s just going to be avoiding the ninth.

“I think the biggest thing is just execution,” Shelton said. “David's execution hasn't been as good as it's been over the last couple years. We have to get back to that."

Without Bednar in the ninth, the Pirates will instead opt for a closer by committee approach.

In the interim, Bednar is trying to simplify to work back to reclaiming the job he excelled in the past two seasons. He’s not going to let himself get too far ahead of himself, though. Right now, he knows he needs to take things one day at a time.

“I have all the confidence in the world,” Bednar said. “I know I'm going to get back to that spot, be back to who I am and what makes me great. It's coming."