What Pearson, Paredes moves mean for Cubs' Deadline strategy

July 29th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Jordan Bastian’s Cubs Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- The annual question that arrives at the Trade Deadline for every ballclub is whether the team is going to be a buyer or a seller. Before the Cubs swung a few deals during their recent trip to Kansas City, manager Craig Counsell cautioned against that black-or-white description.

“It's not like a ‘This’ or ‘That,’” Counsell said last week. “I think there's a big misconception about Trade Deadlines that they're ‘This’ or ‘That.’ I think that's a mistake. I think it's an easier story to write.”

The more complicated narrative is the needle Chicago has been threading over the past few days.

First, the Cubs landed a controllable reliever in from the Blue Jays in exchange for two prospects on Saturday. Then on Sunday, the North Siders acquired All-Star third baseman from the Rays for infielder Christopher Morel, rookie reliever Hunter Bigge and pitching prospect Ty Johnson.

The Cubs went from a team expected to be a seller to suddenly being viewed as a buyer? Well, not exactly. The full scope of Chicago’s Deadline will be revealed by Tuesday at 5 p.m. CT, but these two early trades fall precisely within the plan that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer detailed a week ago.

“We probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Hoyer said. “If moves help us in '25 and beyond -- I think we’re still exceptionally well-positioned -- I think that’s where our focus will be. But just helping in '24, I think that probably won’t be our focus unless things change dramatically.”

Yes, both Paredes and Pearson can shore up areas of need down the stretch this season, helping the Cubs possibly get on a hot streak that pulls them back to the Wild Card fringe. Really, though, these are moves that fit that "'25 and beyond” tagline that Hoyer offered for his Deadline strategy.

Paredes is 25 years old -- the same age as Morel -- but has developed into a more established player whose offensive production appears more projectable. Paredes has a .797 OPS, along with a 126 OPS+ in the past three seasons combined. Morel has star potential with elite power, but the overall results have not met the under-the-hood Statcast metrics.

Paredes is also solid enough at third (1 Out Above Average in ‘24), whereas Morel has struggled overall in his trial run at the hot corner (minus-12 OAA in ‘24) this season. It was a challenge for the Cubs to find a true home for Morel on their roster. Paredes is a better fit on the diamond and is under control through ‘27. Morel is under control through ‘28, but Chicago needs more predictability in the short-term picture.

Pearson, 27, is under control through 2026 for the Cubs, who have a group of relievers who are potential trade chips ahead of Tuesday’s Deadline. So again, yes, the righty helps Chicago now, but this is more about the next two seasons of control. Pearson’s ERA is lacking right now (5.63), but he is in the 95th percentile for fastball velocity (97.6 mph), per Statcast, and with a great strikeout rate (28.0%).

These moves feel like “buyer” trades, but the emphasis is really on hitting the reset button for 2025 rather than focusing solely on this year. And there may still be some “seller” moves coming for Chicago in the next couple of days.

“I feel really good about how we’re positioned for the future and beyond,” Hoyer said last week. “I think our moves will reflect that at the Deadline.”