Phils tab Sánchez over Nola for G2 start: 'Smartest thing to do'

October 4th, 2024

PHILADELPHIA -- did enough last year to earn the final spot in the Phillies' rotation this season.

He took that opportunity and turned it into a life-changing contract extension signed in late June, his first National League Pitcher of the Month Award a couple weeks later and his first career All-Star selection in July.

Now, he'll be the Phillies' Game 2 starter against the Mets in the National League Division Series on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. will start Game 3 on Tuesday at Citi Field.

"Just looking at playing the Mets, going into Citi Field, I think it's going to be a pretty hostile environment," manager Rob Thomson said on Friday afternoon. "And looking at Sánchez's home/road splits, I just thought it was really the smartest thing to do."

At the end of the day, that's what the decision came down to.

Sánchez pitched like a bona fide ace at home this season, going 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 17 starts. Over the past 40 seasons, only three Phillies pitchers posted a 2.21 home ERA or better in a single season (minimum 15 starts): Cliff Lee (1.94 in 2011), Roy Halladay (2.21 in '10) and Curt Schilling (2.21 in 1992).

But pitching on the road was a different story. Sánchez went 4-6 with a 5.02 ERA in 14 outings away from the Bank.

“I have to work on that and get better at that, because I’ve noticed,” Sánchez said a few weeks ago. “I’ve checked the numbers and they’re not so good on the road. I think that’s something I have to work on to get better.”

Though those splits were ultimately the deciding factor for how Thomson lined up his rotation, it speaks volumes about Sánchez's evolution that he would even be considered for Game 2.

Sánchez's only appearance in either of the Phillies' last two postseason runs came in Game 4 of last year's NLCS, when the club was debating between him and Taijuan Walker. And while Sánchez got the nod, it wasn't without an extremely short leash. (He threw only 38 pitches over 2 1/3 innings in a loss vs. the D-backs.)

"It's really amazing the steps that he's taken, the growth that he's had -- not only physically, but mentally and emotionally," Thomson said. "This guy started the year at 92, 93 mph and really commanding the baseball, and now, he's 95, 96, touching 97 and maintaining his command. ... He's just grown leaps and bounds."

It should be noted that Nola also has some favorable numbers at home.

The veteran righty has a 2.45 ERA in six career postseason starts at Citizens Bank Park, compared to a 6.32 ERA in three road playoff starts. Nola's career ERA is also a full run lower at home (3.21) than it is on the road (4.21). As recently as last season, Nola had a 5.43 ERA in 18 road starts and a 3.29 ERA in 14 home starts.

The main difference is Nola has proven he can pitch well on the road -- especially in New York.

In fact, Nola's best start this season came at Citi Field, where he tossed a complete-game shutout on May 14. Dating to 2018, he has a 2.49 ERA in 12 starts at Citi Field.

And while Sunday will mark just the second postseason start of Sánchez's career, Nola will be making his 10th playoff start on Tuesday in New York. And, if all goes to plan in the first two games, Nola could be vying for his third career series-clinching victory -- something no Phillies pitcher has done (Nola, Cole Hamels and Steve Carlton all have two apiece).

"Aaron Nola, you probably won't see any different type of excitement out of him pitching Game 1, 2, 3 or a Spring Training game," Thomson said. "He's calm, poised -- he doesn't show much emotion. But I'm sure he's just excited to pitch in the playoffs."

Nola has pitched well at the outset of each of the past two postseasons, posting a 0.71 ERA over four starts in the NL Wild Card Series and NLDS. The Phillies are 4-0 in those games.

But Nola's ERA jumped to 6.94 across five starts in the 2022-23 NLCS and '22 World Series. Philadelphia won just two of those five games.

With the luxury of lining up their rotation exactly how they want for the first time, the Phillies are hoping for a better outcome in '24.

“That’s certainly the advantage of not having to go play the Wild Card [Series] is that your guys are fresh, and we have them lined up the way we want to use them,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said. “Obviously, there's something to going and winning a Wild Card Series and getting to take that momentum into this Division Series, but for us, it was good to be able to set things how we want and make sure our guys got the rest they needed.”