Burnes deal represents how the bar has been raised in NL West

December 28th, 2024

I was asleep when news broke that the Diamondbacks had shockingly agreed to terms with ace starter . I’d venture to guess most of you were, too.

So if you’re into New Year’s resolutions, here’s a suggestion: Let’s resolve to stay up later in 2025, because the best division in baseball deserves our attention.

The National League West is proof that, for all the external chatter about how “bad for baseball” it must be that the reigning World Series champion Dodgers keep stocking up on top talent (including Friday’s news that they’ve retained All-Star outfielder Teoscar Hernández), there is tremendous entertainment value when other clubs embrace the challenge of a raised bar.

The Padres have been doing that for a while now. Their 2019 pact with Manny Machado ushered in a new era of aggression and contention in San Diego. The Friars have some offseason challenges that accompany the rising costs of their roster. But with several offensive stars (Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Rookie of the Year runner-up Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts), front-line starters (Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish), a strong bullpen and a legit shot at landing young Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, they figure to be major postseason factors yet again.

Yes the Dodgers got it done in 2024, but not before a bitter feud with the Friars, who had them on the ropes in an NLDS that a lot of people in baseball considered to be the “World Series before the World Series.” It was a five-game series that provided a strong argument for making the DS a seven-game set.

In Arizona, aggression has been on the menu for the Snakes ever since they swept L.A. in the 2023 NLDS and came within three wins of a World Series title. Unfortunately, in '24, the difficulties of the dreaded “hangover year” for arms pushed for the length of the previous October ultimately outweighed the talent assembled on a franchise-record payroll. But let the record show that the mathematical tiebreaker was the only thing keeping the D-backs (who had the same record as the Mets and Braves ... and actually a better record than the AL West champion Astros) out of their second consecutive postseason.

There were 12 playoff clubs in 2024; the Snakes had a better run differential (plus-98) than eight of them.

So now, the Diamondbacks, having already brought aboard power-hitting first baseman Josh Naylor to assist 2023 Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll and '24 MVP finalist Ketel Marte atop the lineup, have landed the best arm available in this free-agent market.

Burnes’ 142 ERA+ dating back to 2020 is second only to new Yankee Max Fried’s 151 mark among pitchers with at least 500 innings in that span. The reported six-year, $210 million pact with Burnes is a franchise-record one for a D-backs team that undoubtedly has regrets about its late-spring signing of Jordan Montgomery this year. But it’s also a relative discount compared to what the Scottsdale resident Burnes could have earned elsewhere, and it gives Arizona one heck of a rotation outlook by adding him to the group featuring Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Merrill Kelly. (It also seemingly increases the likelihood of Montgomery being dealt for help elsewhere on the roster.)

This division will prove even more dynamic if the 2021 West champion Giants get back in on the action. For now, the first offseason of the Buster Posey POBO (president of baseball operations) era grades as an incomplete, especially now that the Giants didn’t land Burnes to fill the void left behind by Blake Snell. But an extension with Matt Chapman and a seven-year pact with Willy Adames not only ensures a dynamic left-hand side of the infield for the Giants, but also indicates a commitment to fielding a more stable lineup than they’ve employed in the recent past. Oh, and of course they, too, are in on that Sasaki action.

There is a clear No. 1 in the NL West and MLB power rankings. The Dodgers were ravaged by rotation injuries in 2024 but did as advertised, anyway. They are even scarier now with Snell aboard and with Shohei Ohtani returning to two-way status.

But there’s no retreat and no surrender elsewhere in the West, and it’s always heartening to see earnest efforts as opposed to five-year plans. I’m reminded of a conversation with a Diamondbacks front-office member prior to 2024, when I asked if there was any internal projection that showed them overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West standings.

“Our owner asked the same thing,” the executive said with a smile.

At the start of the offseason, Arizona owner Ken Kendrick had been told the obvious: There was really no move the D-backs could make that would compel the computers to project them ahead of the Dodgers. But Kendrick authorized significant investment in the 2024 product anyway, because the D-backs’ '23 NL championship team had provided proof that all that matters is getting to October, not how you get there.

It’s nice to see that a frustrating, mathematically maddening end to 2024 didn’t dissuade the D-backs from upping the ante again for '25. That’s ultimately what is required when trying to keep pace with the Dodgers. They might again be too deep and too resourceful to be caught in the West standings.

But that might not stop the NL West from being the best division in baseball ... and worthy of our late nights.