How concerned should each contender be about its starting rotation?

How concerned should each contender be about its starting rotation?

March 1st, 2024

What does it take to reach the World Series?

A relentless lineup? A dominant bullpen? A formidable rotation?

Well, yes to all three. But let's focus just on starting pitching for a minute. Fourteen of the previous 16 pennant winners have ranked eighth or better in starter ERA. (The two outliers are the 2023 D-backs and the '22 Phillies.) So if your team is going to make a deep October run, it better have the horses to get there.

Of course, just getting there is a challenge because the art of pitching is filled with inherent risk. No matter what safeguards are taken, injuries are going to occur, and navigating those obstacles requires suitable depth.

Be it injury risk, a lack of depth or questionable talent, some rotations contain more concerns than others. That's what we're going to explore today. Using FanGraphs' 2024 projections, let's assign a level of concern to each rotation from the 12 projected playoff teams. The scale ranges from 1-10 with 1 representing the least amount of concern and 10 representing the highest level of concern. We'll also spotlight one pitcher whose success this year could heavily impact his team's final standing.

Cardinals

FanGraphs projection: NL Central champion
Concern level: 9

The Cardinals' starters turned in a 5.08 ERA last season, the franchise's highest since 1913 when earned runs became an official stat in both leagues. The club responded by overhauling the look of its rotation, signing , and . But it's fair to wonder if this group will be good enough for the Cards to win their division as FanGraphs projects. Lynn, Gibson and -- all of whom are at least 35 years old -- had an expected ERA of 4.80 or worse last year.

Gray, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up, will get the ball on Opening Day, and St. Louis will look for him to author a very similar season in '24. He served up only eight home runs and had an MLB-best 2.83 FIP over 184 innings, his most since 2015. Can he do that again in his age-34 campaign?

Who must step up? The Cards will need former first-round Draft picks and best friends and to iron out the kinks and infuse this aged staff with some youth.

Orioles

FanGraphs projection: AL Wild Card
Concern level: 7

The trade for has taken on even greater importance following a couple of big developments in O's camp. Kyle Bradish will start the season on the injured list due to a sprained elbow ligament, and John Means' ramp-up is about a month behind the rest of the team. Bradish's recovery has had some positive signs recently, but a strong group headed by Burnes and looks much more worrisome now than it did a few weeks ago.

Who must step up? . He and could round out Baltimore's rotation come Opening Day, although the recently signed Julio Teheran is another option. Second-half struggles led to Wells being demoted in July and ending the 2023 season in Baltimore's bullpen. Yet he was among the best starters in the American League entering the All-Star break. He recorded an MLB-low 0.93 WHIP, a 3.18 ERA and a .299 expected weighted on-base average through his first 104 2/3 innings.

Rays

FanGraphs projection: AL Wild Card
Concern level: 7

The Rays traditionally spin straw into gold when it comes to pitchers, but their rotation is facing immense deficits from last season. , Drew Rasmussen and will miss most or all of the 2024 campaign due to their respective elbow surgeries. Tyler Glasnow is on the Dodgers. , coming off his 2022 Tommy John operation, could help later in the year but will likely be limited. This leaves veteran right-hander as the club's probable ace. The staff also includes , and , who have thrown a combined 231 1/3 innings as big league starters.

Who must step up? Pepiot and Bradley, each a Top 100 prospect entering last year, will have a lot of eyes on them. But don't overlook non-roster invitee . He was an innings eater in Japan and has been impressive so far this spring.

Twins

FanGraphs projection: AL Central champion
Concern meter: 7

and are a solid pairing at the top of the rotation; they finished among the top 10 starters in strikeout rate last year (min. 150 innings). Both have terrific control, and you can say the same about , who owns a career 5% walk rate. However, the questions begin after that. Sonny Gray and have moved on via free agency, so and are penciled in as Minnesota's No. 4 and No. 5 starters. Injuries have limited Paddack to only 27 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, and he has an 82 ERA+ since his solid 2019 rookie year with San Diego. The 33-year-old DeSclafani, acquired in January, has also missed significant time since the start of 2022 (118 2/3 combined innings) and posted an expected ERA over 5.00 each year.

Who must step up? A lack of depth is another issue for the Twins, but can help there. The 26-year-old may not start the year in the rotation, but projection systems believe he will make his mark there. Armed with a fastball that touches 98 mph, Varland has added a sinker and refined his slider for the season ahead.

Cubs

FanGraphs projection: NL Wild Card
Concern level: 6

There is a pretty wide range of outcomes here, and the end results hinge on and . Can the former meet raised expectations following a 2023 breakout season that saw him finish fifth in the NL Cy Young voting? And will the latter, Nippon Professional Baseball's strikeout leader last year, be a Major League force right away? and don't have very high ceilings any longer, but both were effective during the second half of last season. Who lines up behind them in the rotation is an open question.

Who must step up? is one of those hurlers vying for the No. 5 spot, and he appears to have a bright future after debuting in 2023. The 24-year-old induced a lot of grounders (50% ground-ball rate) and weak contact (33% hard-hit rate) over 34 2/3 frames.

Dodgers

FanGraphs projection: NL West champion
Concern level: 6

In terms of talent and depth, it's hard for any team to match what the Dodgers have put together. Even if they experience a rash of injuries, they can call upon the likes of and to fill the gaps. That's a good thing, too, because the Dodgers are already dealing with plenty of health concerns. Shohei Ohtani won't pitch this season. Clayton Kershaw is out for most of the year following left shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler is still making his way back from his 2022 Tommy John surgery. Glasnow and have landed on the injured list often throughout their careers. And then there is . The first impression was awfully fun to watch, but he still has to prove that he can be a frontline starter at this level.

Who must step up? logged a 3.50 expected ERA and a .186 expected batting average through his first 60 1/3 MLB innings last year. The 24-year-old's stuff is undeniable, but after allowing 11 homers and 26 walks, his command needs to improve.

Yankees

FanGraphs projection: AL East champion
Concern meter: 6

Having the AL Cy Young Award winner among your ranks provides the Yanks with a strong foundation. However, is 33 and coming off a six-year low in strikeout rate (27%), so let's not take him for granted. Elsewhere, we've seen what , and can do when they are at their best. But after they were sidelined by injuries for long stretches last year, they all have something to prove this summer. Look for the Yankees to possibly promote right-hander Will Warren, their No. 8 prospect, if the injury bug bites them early this season.

Who must step up? Rodón is the biggest X-factor on the staff, but barring a move for , New York will need to show progress following his up-and-down first full season in 2023. He ended with a 93 ERA+ over 159 frames.

Braves

FanGraphs projection: NL East champion
Concern level: 4

The Braves withstood injuries to and Kyle Wright last year to ultimately win 104 games. So while there is some obvious risk in a rotation featuring 40-year-old and the oft-ailing , you can't be too concerned given recent history. Fried was stellar once he returned in August from a left forearm strain (2.79 ERA, .649 opponents' OPS across 51 2/3 innings). Plus, is a top Cy Young candidate. The starting five will be rounded out by either 2023 standout , converted reliever or top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver.

Who must step up? Although Sale has tossed only 151 innings over the past four seasons, he has been generally effective whenever he is on the mound. Last year, he recorded a 29.4% strikeout rate over 102 2/3 innings, and his four-seamer is already hitting 97 mph in Spring Training. For as long as Sale's body holds up, he and Strider will be one of baseball's most unhittable starting duos.

Diamondbacks

FanGraphs projection: NL Wild Card
Concern level: 4

A lot is riding on 's right arm given the makeup of this rotation. But at 28 years old, he's one of MLB's most reliable starters. He and 35-year-old rank among the top 10 in innings pitched over the past two seasons and have recorded a 125 ERA+ or better during that period. gives the D-backs an established trio of quality hurlers. The left-hander ranked 24th among starters in run value last year. Arizona doesn't have a bevy of proven depth to fall back on, but this could become a fearsome foursome if ...

Who must step up? ... proves that last year's postseason run was just the start of things to come. After producing a 5.72 ERA in 96 regular-season innings, the rookie had a 3.27 mark through five outings during the team's journey to the World Series. That included 9 2/3 frames with 16 K's, two walks and two runs allowed in the NLCS versus Philadelphia. A Top 100 prospect last year, Pfaadt seems primed to leap forward in 2024.

Astros

FanGraphs projection: AL West champion
Concern level: 3

You can turn that level up a few notches if 's right shoulder is still an issue in a couple of weeks. But for now, he could be ready for Opening Day. Right-hander is also dealing with some shoulder inflammation. , and didn't have their best seasons last year, but they are all still in their prime and have a track record of effectiveness. This group could get midseason reinforcements as and are working their way back from arm injuries.

Who must step up? After an outstanding April, put up a 5.74 ERA over 125 1/3 frames during his rookie season. He can place some blame for that inflated number on his .330 BABIP and a 68.8% strand rate. Conversely, his 26.8% K rate, 52.2% ground-ball rate and powerful pitch mix are a few reasons to believe in him as a breakout candidate this year.

Phillies

FanGraphs projection: NL Wild Card
Concern level: 2

The Phillies had the most starting pitching fWAR last year (17.7), and the top five arms are back for 2024. No starter had more fWAR than (5.9), and he was joined in the top 15 by the recently extended and uber-durable Aaron Nola (3.9). and were just about league-average through 297 1/3 combined frames, but really picked up the slack. The lefty registered a 125 ERA+ through 99 1/3 innings. His walk rate (4%), ground-ball rate (57.7%) and chase rate (34.8%) were near the top of the charts. Beyond that quintet, the Phillies spent the winter compiling pitching depth.

Who must step up? Phils fans should get a glimpse this season of Mick Abel, MLB Pipeline's No. 49 prospect. The 6-foot-5 righty brings a high-90s fastball, a mid-80s slider and a plus curveball. He held Double-A batters to a .188 average and struck out 126 through 108 2/3 innings last year.

Mariners

FanGraphs projection: AL Wild Card
Concern level: 1

Only 15 pitchers surpassed 190 innings last season, and three of them pitch in Seattle. , and were chief reasons why Mariners starters finished first in innings (901 1/3), fourth in ERA (3.98) and tied for first in walk rate (5.6%). Castillo, 31, is the oldest member of the group, and his 96 mph four-seamer remains one of the most valuable pitches in baseball. 's fastball was pivotal to his early success as a rookie, and he's hoping a new splitter elevates his game in his sophomore season. debuted about a month after Miller and logged a 3.48 expected ERA with a .289 xwOBA through 87 2/3 frames. This quintet -- which accounted for 103 starts in Seattle's final 109 games -- has an outstanding blend of reliability and upside.

Who must step up? started three of those other six games last year and forced a lot of weak contact in his short stint. The Mariners' No. 5 prospect, the right-hander looks like the club's next young arm to stand out in the big leagues.