The case for each Cy Young Award finalist

The case for each Cy Young Award finalist

November 20th, 2024

There are interesting storylines in both of this year's Cy Young Award races.

The National League features two veteran aces -- Braves left-hander Chris Sale and the Phillies' Zack Wheeler -- who have been Cy Young finalists in previous seasons but are still looking for their first trophy. Then there is Pirates phenom Paul Skenes, who is vying to join Fernando Valenzuela as the only pitchers to earn the Rookie of the Year Award and the Cy Young Award in the same season.

The three American League candidates all come from the AL Central, but that's just about the only thing they have in common. Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal had a breakout season in 2024 and dominates hitters with his powerful repertoire. Royals right-hander Seth Lugo, who relies much more on command than velocity, just had his best season at age 34. And Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase is the first relief pitcher in 16 years to be a Cy Young finalist.

Who will take home the 2024 Cy Young Award in each league? Here is a case for each finalist before the winners are announced Wednesday on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

, RHP, Guardians

It’s so difficult for a reliever to top a starter in a battle for a Cy Young Award, considering the last time it happened was 2003 (Eric Gagne), but Clase has already made it this far. Who says he can’t go all the way?

With an ERA that starts with a zero, you’re definitely going to turn some heads. That’s right, Clase owned a 0.61 ERA in 74 regular-season appearances. That’s just five earned runs in 74 1/3 innings. He led the American League with 47 saves (his career best) and walked just 10 batters. He had only three blown saves one year after leading the Majors in both saves and blown saves. His cutter averaged just below 100 mph, his slider became more untouchable, and his command was elite.

Clase was so efficient that 15 of his 74 outings took nine pitches or fewer. Only four exceeded 20 pitches. The Guardians joked all season long that they could stop paying attention to the game once it got to the ninth inning. They knew they had an 82-0 record when carrying a lead into that final frame. Why worry?

Clase may have a daunting task going against someone like Skubal, but proving that his season was dominant enough to already be the first reliever to finish in the top three for the Cy Young since Francisco Rodriguez in 2008 (third), he’s put together an impressive enough season that will be tough to beat. If he can pull it off, he will become the sixth Clevelander to win the award, joining Shane Bieber (2020), Corey Kluber (2014, ’17), Cliff Lee (2008), CC Sabathia (2007) and Gaylord Perry (1972). -- Mandy Bell

, RHP, Royals

What a testament it is to Lugo’s belief that he should and could be a starter, even after all his years as a Mets reliever, that the 34-year-old is now a Cy Young Award finalist. No matter where he finishes, Lugo’s story from 34th-round Draft pick to veteran reliever to a free-agent starter and now All-Star starter is one to recognize.

Skubal is the favorite here, to be sure, but Lugo’s case for Cy Young rests on his consistency and reliability atop the Royals’ rotation. Lugo was one of four AL starters – and the only finalist here – to make 33 starts this year. His 206 2/3 innings ranked second in baseball to Seattle’s Logan Gilbert. Twenty-two of Lugo’s 33 starts were quality starts. He ranked in the top 10 in the AL in wins (16, tied for second), ERA (3.00, sixth) and WHIP (1.09, tied for sixth).

Lugo’s 4.7 WAR, according to FanGraphs, ranked third in the AL behind Skubal (5.9) and Lugo’s teammate, Cole Ragans (4.9), who likely got some Cy Young Award votes and could appear in the fourth or fifth spots on the ballot.

Lugo’s stuff is not overpowering, and he doesn’t rack up the strikeouts. What made him so good was his craftiness: His ability to utilize and manipulate nine-plus pitches. He was also at his best under pressure: Lugo's .212 opponents’ average with runners in scoring position ranked sixth in the AL. -- Anne Rogers

, LHP, Tigers

Skubal became the 22nd player in Major League history to win a pitching Triple Crown, leading the league with 18 wins, 228 strikeouts and a 2.39 ERA. Since the Cy Young Award was established in 1956, every pitcher who has won his league’s Triple Crown also won the Cy Young that year. Even with advanced pitching metrics aplenty and a move away from pitcher wins, leading those three aforementioned traditional stats usually reflects a combination of dominant and successful pitching. Such was the case with Skubal, whose impact on the Tigers’ first winning season since 2016 and first postseason berth since 2014 cannot be overstated.

While manager A.J. Hinch turned “pitching chaos” into a rallying cry, riding a series of bullpen games, openers and bulk relievers into a late-season charge, Skubal was the constant at the top of the rotation. For some stretches, he basically was the rotation, sometimes as its only traditional starter, other times paired with rookie Keider Montero.

Skubal was up to the task. His 18 wins were the most by a Tiger since Max Scherzer in 2014. His 2.39 ERA was the lowest by a qualified Detroit starter since Mark Fidrych’s incredible rookie season of 1976. His 5.9 fWAR trailed only Justin Verlander’s 2009 and 2010 seasons as the most by a Tigers pitcher in his age-27 season or younger since 1971. His 6.3 bWAR not only led MLB pitchers, it ranked seventh among all AL players.

Skubal held opponents to two runs or less in 24 of his 31 starts and did so over at least six innings in 21 of those 24. He picked up a pair of 2-1 wins during the Tigers’ critical stretch-run surge, tossing eight innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox on Aug. 31 and seven scoreless innings against the Rays on Sept. 24. -- Jason Beck

NATIONAL LEAGUE

, LHP, Braves

Sale finished four strikeouts shy of becoming the first pitcher since Johan Santana in 2006 to win MLB’s Triple Crown in a non-shortened season. He settled for the honor of being the first pitcher to win the National League’s Triple Crown in a full season since Clayton Kershaw in 2011. The lefty tied Skubal for the Major League lead in wins (18) and led MLB in ERA (2.38) and pitching fWAR (6.4). His NL-high 225 strikeouts were just three shy of Skubal’s MLB-best total.

Sale also ranked first among qualified starters with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a 2.09 FIP. Though back discomfort prevented him from making his final regular-season start, he proved durable during his first healthy season since 2018. The NL Comeback Player of the Year posted a 1.96 ERA over his final 18 starts.

Compared to Wheeler, Sale surrendered a higher batting average (.216 to .192). But Sale's .315 BABIP was higher than Wheeler’s (.247), indicating that the latter benefited from more luck and/or better defense. ERA+ takes a player's ERA and normalizes it across the entire league, accounting for external factors such as ballparks and opponents. Sale’s MLB-best 174 ERA+ indicates he was 74% better than league average. Wheeler’s 158 ERA+ indicates he was 58% better than league average. -- Mark Bowman

, RHP, Pirates

Sale had 6.2 WAR this season, according to Baseball-Reference. Wheeler had 6.1 WAR. Skenes finished with 5.9 WAR. They’re all within a fraction of a point of each other, but Sale made 29 starts and Wheeler made 32. Skenes started the season in the Minors, and he nearly matched their WAR production in just 23 starts.

Wheeler and Sale had a head start on their seasons, so they’re going to have the edge in counting stats. Skenes has the edge in rate stats, whether it’s strikeouts per nine innings (11.5), strikeout percentage (33.1%), WHIP (0.95), strikeout rate minus walk rate (26.8%) and ERA (1.96). Skenes doesn’t just have the best numbers in those key categories among this trio, but among all pitchers in the National League with at least 130 innings pitched. Mix in a sub-Mendoza Line .198 batting average against, and Skenes can stake a claim to being the most dominant pitcher in the game this year.

He was also the most exciting. No pitcher demanded eyeballs once every six games like Skenes did because you didn’t know what he was going to do that day. Perhaps years from now a new generation of pitchers will have “splinkers” in their repertoire because of what Skenes did this season. If the Cy Young should go to the pitcher who had the biggest impact on the game, it’s Skenes. -- Alex Stumpf

, RHP, Phillies

Everybody says they care about a pitcher’s workload, but do they really?

We’ll find out. Wheeler finished the season 16-7 with 200 innings pitched, a 2.57 ERA, 224 strikeouts, a 6.1 bWAR and a 5.4 fWAR. He led qualified NL pitchers in WHIP (0.96), opponents’ batting average (.192), opponents’ on-base percentage (.253), opponents’ OPS (.581), opponents’ wOBA (.256), quality starts (26) and starts of six-plus innings (26). He trailed Sale by only 0.1 bWAR for the NL lead among pitchers. He trailed Sale by 1.0 fWAR for the NL lead.

But Wheeler also made three more starts, faced 85 more batters (787 to 702) and threw 22 1/3 more innings than Sale, who was limited to 177 2/3 innings because of a late-season injury.

Wheeler’s workload should matter, especially as much as Wheeler matched Sale in other metrics. Sale won only two more games than Wheeler. His ERA was only 0.19 points better. He had only one more strikeout.

“He’s a Cy Young, man,” Bryce Harper said of Wheeler in September. “I don’t think anybody in baseball is better than him at this point. I don’t think anybody is in the National League, either. The people down in Atlanta probably think the same thing about the guy throwing down there [Sale], but I thought [Wheeler] got robbed of it three years ago. I believe he earned it this year." -- Todd Zolecki