What went wrong for the Cardinals in 1st month?

May 1st, 2023

LOS ANGELES -- The start of 2023 saw the Cardinals brimming with optimism. With a talented roster featuring a number of the same faces as the squad that won 93 games last season, many projected them to win a second straight National League Central title.

But, as they closed April with a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday at Dodger Stadium, the Cardinals are nine games below .500 at 10-19 and 10 games back of the first-place Pirates.

“It's just being able to get everything to click at the same time,” said Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol. “Like yesterday, we got really good pitching, didn’t score. And vice versa, there's days where we hit the ball OK and give up too many runs or make defensive mistakes late in the game. Today, bullpen wasn't as sharp.”

This is nearly unprecedented for the Cardinals, who just once before have exited April 10 games or more out of first; the previous time was 1907, when they went 3-12 and were 10 games behind the Cubs, per Elias Sports Bureau.

The rough beginning doesn’t mean the Cardinals can’t bounce back, but some key things have to change. Here are three takeaways about what’s gone wrong:

1) Both the road and home have been unkind
St. Louis finished April with a 10-game, 11-day, three-city tour of the West Coast, visiting the Mariners, Giants and Dodgers. Prior to the trip, the Cardinals were hovering under .500 at 8-11. They proceeded to go 2-8, culminating with the sweep in Los Angeles.

The Cardinals are off Monday before hosting the Angels for three games. Unfortunately for the Cards, they haven’t fared much better at home. In 13 games at Busch Stadium, they’re 5-8 (.385), while they’re 5-11 (.313) on the road. They have a slightly better run differential in St. Louis, being outscored by just two runs there as opposed to 11 as visitors.

“A day off, being able to reset, be at home is going to be important,” said Marmol. “But you’ve got to use that appropriately and come out ready to play.”

2) A star’s slump has hurt
singled against Noah Syndergaard on Sunday, but overall, the past couple of weeks have been difficult for the star third baseman. In his last 12 games, Arenado is 5-for-47 (.106) with no extra-base hits, one walk and 12 strikeouts.

“This is a guy that's super intentional with his work, highly competitive and obsessive in the way he goes about it,” Marmol said of Arenado. “Last year, we saw a version of this in May, and then in June, he went off, so it's a matter of time before we see Nolan doing what we know Nolan can do.”

In spite of those struggles in 2022, Arenado still won his fifth career Silver Slugger Award. There’s no doubt that he can hit. But when a club’s cleanup batter is having a hard time, it can be difficult to galvanize the offense as a whole, even with players like and the recently activated producing at impressive clips. Moving Arenado to the No. 3 spot on Saturday didn’t do much to shake things up, so the Cardinals must figure out other ways to get him going.

Other hitters have had offensive difficulties as well, most notably top prospect Jordan Walker before he was optioned for more consistent playing time.

3) A veteran starter’s return will be welcome
Adam Wainwright hasn’t yet pitched for St. Louis this season due to a strained groin sustained during the World Baseball Classic, and his 2023 debut has been pushed back once. He’s close to returning, though, with his third rehab start on Sunday likely being his last. For Triple-A Memphis against Durham, Wainwright allowed four runs on seven hits while striking out nine in 5 2/3 innings, stretching out to 89 pitches.

And the Cardinals will certainly be glad to get him back. They rank tied for 21st in the Majors in starter ERA at 4.94. Over the past three seasons, Wainwright has a 3.34 ERA. If he is ready to make his next start with the big league club, he’ll probably take the place of his fill-in, Sunday’s starter .

“I just feel like we're grinding stuff out,” said Woodford, who allowed three runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Dodgers and has a 5.72 ERA in six starts with St. Louis. “Stuff isn't really going our way right now, but I don’t think that's affecting our preparation and how hard we're working.”