What's on deck for the Cards in 2024?
This story was excerpted from John Denton's Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
MESA, Ariz. -- When Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak stressed late in 2023 that the club would be looking to add three starting pitchers for the upcoming season, fans started dreaming wildly about the scenarios that could potentially materialize.
Was there a baseball world where the Cards would ink National League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, bring Jordan Montgomery back to St. Louis and trade for Dylan Cease? What if they lured Aaron Nola out of Philadelphia, finally closed the deal on Sonny Gray and traded for Tyler Glasnow? Lars Nootbaar’s family friend Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with Marcus Stroman and a returning Jack Flaherty, anyone?
Well, about that.
The Cardinals did finally snag Gray -- a player they coveted for years and had tried unsuccessfully to deal for in the past -- but they took a decidedly different path in filling out the rotation. Never one at the top of the free-agent market and often on the outside looking in at bidding wars, the Cards acted swiftly before the pitching market got too rich for their liking, inking 36-year-old right-handers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Lynn helped the Redbirds win a World Series in 2011, and Gibson is an offseason St. Louis resident and a University of Missouri standout. Both wanted to be Cardinals, and the franchise fulfilled those desires even though both had rocky ERAs from the previous season.
The question now, of course, is this: Did the Cardinals do enough to patch a pitching staff that left its fingerprints all over the franchise’s worst season in 33 years in 2023? Gray is already injured, and Lynn and Gibson have looked shaky this spring. If Lynn and Gibson can’t stabilize the staff and stay healthy, can the Cards avoid a similar fate in 2024?
What needs to go right?
The starting staff must get -- and stay -- healthy
With a very difficult start to the season, the Cardinals' revamped pitching staff will be put to the test right away. Gray won’t be back until the second week of April as he rebuilds his arm strength after being out of game action for three weeks. Lynn (a 7.90 ERA in Grapefruit League play) and Gibson (10.80 spring ERA) endured during rocky springs.
Factor in more spring struggles from Steven Matz (9.00 ERA) and the Cardinals could be in for another sour start if they can’t get better pitching.
On the positive side, Opening Day starter Miles Mikolas (2.14 spring ERA) seems poised for a big bounce-back season and No. 2 starter Zach Thompson (2.81 spring ERA) has shown the promise of living up to his massive potential. However, they won’t be able to support the staff without healthy and productive seasons from Gray, Lynn, Gibson and Matz.
Great unknown
Will the bullpen be better?
For as much talk as there has been about the revamped starting staff, the Cardinals also worked to turn over their bullpen mix. Trading for Andrew Kittredge, Riley O’Brien and Ryan Fernandez has given the Cards much more swing-and-miss stuff out of the ‘pen. However, the loss of free-agent signee Keynan Middleton could be a devastating one if his right forearm strain lingers.
Team MVP will be?
Nolan Gorman
There hasn’t been a peep throughout Spring Training about the health of Gorman’s occasionally balky back, and that’s a very good thing. Gorman is still just 23 years old, and a healthy back could be the only thing standing between him and a massive season.
Gorman was limited to 119 games last season because of back trouble, and he still led the Redbirds with 27 homers. Hitting between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, Gorman should be able to show off his massive power potential.
Team Cy Young will be?
Sonny Gray
Despite Gray’s right hamstring injury, he impressed the club with his strong communication skills and his gameplanning. He will bring some much-needed toughness and fire to the staff.
Bold prediction
Cards will win the NL Central
Simply returning to the postseason will be a major accomplishment considering that the Cards finished last in the division in 2023.
St. Louis may not have to be great to win the NL Central, considering that most of its rivals are projected to play .500 baseball. The Cardinals will need to avoid burying themselves early with a difficult stretch with 13 of their first 16 games against teams that made last year's playoffs. Once whole, the Cards will emerge as the division’s best team -- even if it takes a trade at the Deadline to do so.