3 keys for Cards to bring NLCS back home

October 14th, 2019

WASHINGTON -- The Cardinals dug themselves an early hole by losing the first two games of the National League Championship Series in St. Louis this weekend. But they'd like to remind you that the NL pennant isn’t decided by two games.

"That's why you play seven," said second baseman . "We've only lost two. It is what it is. We've got three [in Washington D.C.]. We’ll go take care of business there, and if we bring this back to St. Louis -- watch out.”

To do so, the Cardinals need to win at least two of three in Washington this week, beginning Monday.

Of the 24 teams that have dropped their first two games at home in a 2-3-2 format, only six have managed to return home for Game 6 -- most recently, the Braves in the 1998 NLCS. But if the Cardinals can do that, their odds get a lot better. Three of those six teams went on to win the series.

Here are the Cardinals' three biggest keys for a return trip to St. Louis this week:

1. Just get on base
Through two games, the Cardinals' offensive struggles are easy enough to diagnose. St. Louis hitters have come to the plate 62 times against Nationals pitching. They've reached base in only nine of those plate appearances. That's not exactly a formula for success.

But there's one positive to take away from the Cardinals' offense in the past two games. When they reach base, they wreak havoc. They've already swiped three bases, and the Nationals have yet to throw out a basestealer in eight attempts this postseason.

"We've got to make a [few] more adjustments, shorten up a little bit and get back to our small-ball game," said Wong. "We know we’re a good small-ball team, figuring out how to get in position for the guys to drive us in. We’ve got to figure out how to get on base."

Easier said than done, of course. But this is the same Cardinals team that saw 11 men reach base in the top of the first inning of NL Division Series Game 5 in Atlanta. The Cardinals have advanced to the NLCS despite relying on the long ball less than any other playoff club. That success was predicated on their ability to reach base, then create runs. Without the first part of that equation, there's been no chance for the second.

2. Score early, get into the Nats' bullpen
At the risk of oversimplifying things: the Cardinals need to score. (Duh.) Through two games, they've managed only one run, and that run came on an eighth-inning misplay Saturday when the Nationals already had a three-run lead.

"It’s pretty obvious," said first baseman . "If you score one run, you're not going to win many games."

That said, it's even more important that the Cardinals score early. Aníbal Sánchez and Max Scherzer have been afforded the luxury of pitching with the lead, and Nats skipper Dave Martinez really hasn't been forced into any tricky decisions. He hasn't had to mull whether to pull one of his workhorse starters early in favor of a pinch-hitter. He hasn't had to call on a middling middle-relief option because the Nats trailed and needed offense.

Washington's bullpen ERA was the worst in the NL this season, and if the Cardinals are facing anyone other than Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle in that 'pen, they like their chances. With three games in three days -- meaning minimal rest for that duo -- there’s plenty of opportunity for St. Louis to capitalize on the Nationals’ biggest flaw.

3. Set the tone with an ace
There's no one the Cardinals would rather give the ball to in Game 3 than . The right-hander posted a 2.77 ERA in the Division Series, and his performances were probably even better than those numbers suggest. He struck out 16 Braves while allowing 12 hits over 13 innings. That comes on the heels of a lights-out second half in which he posted a 0.91 ERA in 15 starts.

"If there's one guy on our staff that we know gives us a good chance to get back in the series, it's him," said .

A deep outing from Flaherty is precisely what the Cardinals need, considering their slow start to the series. The 2-3-2 format can make things tricky on bullpens during the middle three games, but if Flaherty can deliver some length, it would set St. Louis up well for Games 4 and 5.

Then, if the Cardinals win two in D.C., things set up nicely for a St. Louis return with and Flaherty lined up for Games 6 and 7, respectively. First, they need to find a way to bring this series back home.