Where does Twins' starting pitching stand?

August 1st, 2024

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The Twins would certainly have liked to add a starting pitcher at Tuesday’s Trade Deadline, but that ultimately didn’t come to pass -- and all they can control now is moving forward with the group that they have and trust that the depth with which they prepared for this season will prove to be enough.

What ramifications will the Twins’ relative lack of action at the Trade Deadline have on the rest of their season? Let’s take a look.

1. Ober and Ryan will have to step up
Last October, the Twins leaned most heavily on Pablo López and Sonny Gray in the postseason, holding Bailey Ober in reserve until Game 1 of the American League Division Series and initially skipping Joe Ryan altogether until rest considerations ultimately forced them to use Ryan -- on a very short leash -- in ALDS Game 4.

There will be no such working around Ober or Ryan this season, now that the Twins haven’t added a starting pitcher with potential playoff upside. If Minnesota is to reach the playoffs and make a run, those two will be key to the effort, likely as true starters.

Have the Twins seen enough difference in the course of a year to trust them in such situations?

“I think both Bailey and Joe have taken real steps forward this year,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “I think they've been really solid in the way they've gone about their development of some of their secondary pitches, the ability to attack with two strikes, get a little bit more swing-and-miss when they need to.”

So far, so good. Both Ryan and Ober have been having a career season, with all of Ryan’s offerings up several ticks, seemingly putting him in better position to sustain his stuff into the second half, which has traditionally been his issue. Ober’s changeup has continued to blossom as he has delivered higher-end, elite-caliber starts alongside his trademark consistency.

2. Youth will feature front and center
In order to play in the postseason, the Twins will first have to get there -- and in that regard, they’ll have to rely heavily on at least two young starting pitchers.

They’ve been very lucky that Simeon Woods Richardson (3.74 ERA in 18 starts) has stepped into the void to stabilize one of those roles. And due to Chris Paddack’s injury (and underperformance), the other rotation spot has been filled out of necessity by David Festa (Minnesota's No. 4 prospect), who has had an up-and-down start to his big league career.

Minnesota has little choice but to continue to roll with Festa -- or if he struggles, Louie Varland or quickly rising pitching prospect Zebby Matthews (No. 6) -- and hope that the rotation has what it takes to either catch the Guardians in the AL Central or stay in a Wild Card spot.

It’s certainly not an ideal situation, considering the Twins are one injury away from having to count on three rookies in their rotation -- and if they make it to October, they won’t have as many veterans to lean on in the highest-pressure moments.

“These guys are going to be part of our future,” Falvey said. “They're part of our present and future, with Sim and Festa and Louie Varland and guys like Zebby Matthews and others that are down in Triple-A that could find a way. So these guys all need to be ready to contribute to the group, hopefully in a postseason setting.”

3. Who’s in the bullpen?
It figures that Varland will eventually land back in the bullpen towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, considering his struggles as a starter -- but the Twins will now have to delay that transition due to their lack of starting depth. Who else could join him?

The picture is muddled by the uncertainty around Brock Stewart, who landed back on the IL with his recurring right shoulder issue, and similar uncertainty with Justin Topa, who has yet to pitch for the Twins but whose addition to the roster appears imminent.

Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Jorge Alcala are locks, and Cole Sands and Steven Okert would likely make a playoff bullpen, too. Beyond that? Minnesota then enters the Stewart/Topa/Kody Funderburk/Caleb Thielbar/Varland/Paddack zone (if the Twins return Paddack as a reliever, as they did late last year) -- and they’ll have to make some decisions.