5 questions facing the Brewers this offseason

October 28th, 2022

This story was excerpted from Adam McCalvy’s Brewers Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Here are five questions facing the Brewers this winter:

1. Does David Stearns’ departure change the team’s direction?

On one hand, the Brewers’ new head of baseball operations, Matt Arnold, has been Stearns’ right-hand man since 2015 and will have Stearns as a sounding board during the transition. That suggests stability. On the other hand, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio said he told Arnold on Wednesday, “Listen, Matt, you’re going to get to put your stamp on this,” adding, “We’re going to have open dialogue.”

Time will tell whether the organizational philosophy changes, but Attanasio made clear he expects the Brewers to be back in the playoffs in 2023.

“We just need to be opportunistic,” Arnold said. “And ultimately, I think that will lead us to a World Series.”

2. What does this mean for Craig Counsell?

At the moment, nothing. Counsell was not part of the Brewers’ press conference on Thursday, but Arnold said he and the longtime skipper met for drinks the night before, and Arnold indicated he didn’t anticipate any further staffing changes. Like Stearns, Counsell is entering the final year of his contract. The last time that happened was 2020, when the Brewers spared Counsell from “lame duck” status by signing him to a three-year extension about five weeks before the start of Spring Training.

“We don’t really talk about contract terms, but I think the manager’s contract is public record and yes, this is the final year of his contract,” Attanasio said. “As with David, I have a very close, ongoing relationship with Craig and his family. He is one of the best managers in the National League, one of the most prominent people in the state of Wisconsin. I’m sure we’ll talk about this as we see fit. … I expect the transition [to Arnold] will be seamless.”

3. What about player extensions?

The Brewers have 18 players eligible for arbitration this winter, meaning tough decisions ahead, but also opportunities. Starters Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Eric Lauer and shortstop Willy Adames, for example, all have two more years before they reach free agency.

Every player is different when it comes to trading potential future earnings for the security of a long-term deal, and every team is different when it comes to weighing those risks and rewards. If the Brewers intend to sign some other players long term, this could be the winter to negotiate. Arnold called this topic a “high” priority.

4. Is Christian Yelich just a leadoff guy?

The good news was that Yelich stayed healthy, led the Brewers in games (154), plate appearances (671), and on-base percentage (.355) and was productive (.267/.378/.390) in 406 plate appearances after slotting into the leadoff hole. The bad news is that it came as Yelich’s salary jumped to $26 million annually ($4 million each year is deferred) at the start of the extension he signed on the eve of the pandemic. That’s a high price for a leadoff hitter, especially for a team under payroll constraints relative to other contenders.

“I know I have to get better,” Yelich said at season’s end. “As an important part of this team, somebody who’s been counted on and relied on in the past, I have to do better. I know that. [The aim is] finding ways to do so.”

5. Where should the Brewers prioritize upgrades?

Before you shout, “the offense!” remember that the Brewers ranked 10th in the Majors in runs per game, ahead of the Padres, Mariners, Guardians and Rays, all of whom made the playoffs.

Offense is a baseball problem, not just a Brewers problem. They’ll have to make a decision about the future of center field. Catcher is open with Omar Narváez going into free agency and third base is essentially open.

But the Brewers might want to put some resources into pitching first. They were 18th of 30 teams last season in FIP and expected to be much better. With Ethan Small’s late-season struggles, Adrian Houser’s down year and Aaron Ashby’s trouble staying healthy as a starter, the rotation could use one more reliable arm.