A closer look at Rays' new Top 30 Prospects list
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PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. -- MLB Pipeline’s new Rays Top 30 Prospects list dropped on Monday, with all the names you’d expect at the top.
Junior Caminero is the headliner at No. 1. Shortstop Carson Williams is just behind him at No. 2, followed by Curtis Mead at No. 3 and ascending first-base prospect Xavier Isaac at No. 4. They’re all Top 100 Prospects, and top 2023 Draft pick Brayden Taylor probably isn’t far off, which is why he checks in at No. 5 in Tampa Bay’s system.
After that? It gets a little more interesting and a lot more complicated.
It’s been a while since there wasn’t what felt like a slam-dunk pitching prospect to shoot up the rankings. You’re dealing with players at vastly different points in their development, from 17-year-olds -- like Brailer Guerrero (No. 11) and Erick Lara (No. 28) -- to near-ready players in their mid-20s bound for Triple-A to start the season -- like Austin Shenton (No. 8) and Jacob Lopez (No. 14).
Some offer immense upside, others higher floors. Some have consistently performed against their peers, while others vary between dominance and diminished production.
It was a fun exercise, as usual, with a massive amount of help provided by MLB Pipeline's Sam Dykstra, the rest of the MLB Pipeline crew and many evaluators around the industry. So, now that the full list is out, let’s look beyond the top five at six more Top 30 prospects who could be on the rise, many of whom could appear in the upcoming Spring Breakout prospect showcase, with the Rays scheduled to face the Twins on March 16 at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Dominic Keegan, No. 6: A catcher who can hit? You can see the appeal for the Rays. Keegan leads what is arguably the deepest group of catchers Tampa Bay has had in the system in a long time, if not ever, with Kenny Piper and Logan Driscoll among the others in big league camp.
There aren’t many questions about Keegan’s offensive ability, as he’s hit pretty much everywhere he’s been. The question is whether he will develop into a solid enough defender behind the plate, and the Rays are going to give him every opportunity to prove that he can.
Austin Shenton, No. 8: Shenton is in an interesting spot. He’s on the brink of the Majors, with a 40-man spot and a strong half-season at Triple-A Durham under his belt. He’s also 26 years old, blocked by a bunch of infielders and no more than an average defender at best. But he’s done nothing but hit at a high level when he’s been healthy, and as we’re hearing about Jonathan Aranda now, anyone who hits like that in the Minors has a high likelihood of being a productive hitter in the Majors.
Chandler Simpson, No. 12: You could say Simpson is on the fast track, but that’s a pun we wouldn’t dare put to print. (Wait a second …) He has 80-grade speed, and that might not even do his wheels justice. Simpson stole 94 bases, tied for most in the Minor Leagues last year, and he’s taken well to center field after playing a lot of infield in college.
He’s not going to hit for power, but he has great strike-zone discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he put on some good weight this offseason. Whether that holds up remains to be seen, but Simpson was even faster than before, and he was hitting the ball about 4 mph harder than last year, when he showed up to an offseason camp. He’s going to be one of the Rays' most fascinating prospects to follow.
Tre’ Morgan, No. 15: You don’t generally think of first basemen when you think about elite defenders, the kind you refer to as a potential Gold Glover in the future, but Morgan has the ability to earn that description. That’s a solid starting point for the Rays’ third-round Draft pick from last year, but he might have more in his bat, too.
Morgan had an unusual offensive profile at LSU for someone with his physicality, rarely swinging and missing and producing a lot of weak contact. With some freedom to alter his setup and approach, he could tap into more power and turn into an intriguing all-around everyday position player.
Erick Lara and Jose Monzon, Nos. 28 and 29: Lara came over in a trade with the Marlins over the offseason, while Monzon signed with the Rays for $300,000 as part of their 2023 international-signing class. Both spent last season in the Dominican Summer League and therefore have a long road ahead of them, with a lot of physical and skill development to go, but they have clearly established themselves as Rookie-level prospects to watch heading into the season.
Senior Reporter Adam Berry covers the Rays for MLB.com and covered the Pirates from 2015-21.