This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Braves exited the 2021 All-Star break a game below .500 and ended up winning the World Series. They exited the 2022 break 18 games above .500 and ended up losing to the Phillies in the National League Division Series.

All signs indicate this year’s Braves will win a sixth straight National League East title and possibly break the franchise record for wins (106). But as the past two years have shown, uncertainty remains over the final 2 1/2 months of a 162-game season.

The Braves might have won a second straight World Series had they not entered last year’s postseason with both Max Fried and Spencer Strider ailing. So, it’s too early to predict how the rest of the regular season might evolve, but here is a look at why Atlanta fans are anticipating another memorable October.

What we learned
The Braves have matched a franchise record with 60 wins through the first 89 games of the season. The first half becomes more impressive when you account for Fried (finished second in last year’s NL Cy Young balloting) and Kyle Wright (MLB’s only 20-game winner in 2022) combining to complete just 44 2/3 innings. Bryce Elder has helped fill the void, going from Triple-A Gwinnett’s Opening Day starter to All-Star within three months. But this team has also benefited from a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., who sits at the top of a lineup on pace to break MLB’s single-season home run record.

Most likely Trade Deadline approach
Alex Anthopoulos will not just sit still over the next couple weeks. He’ll explore many different opportunities. The biggest question is what is his team’s biggest need? The bullpen has been strengthened with the improvements made by Joe Jiménez and Kirby Yates. A backup infielder might be the only need from a position player standpoint. So, even with Fried possibly just a couple weeks from being activated, acquiring a starting pitcher might be the best potential move. Elder has been great. But, like Jared Shuster, AJ Smith-Shawver and Michael Soroka, there’s reason to wonder if he might fatigue in September. Of course, by that time, Wright could be back.

Key player
The Braves won the 2021 World Series without Acuña Jr. They don’t want to try that trick again. Nor do they want to enter the postseason like they did last year with Strider ailing and Fried dealing with a virus that caused him to lose 15 pounds in a week. So, there will be a lot of attention placed on Fried when he returns in late July and attempts to prove he is no longer bothered by the left forearm strain that sidelined him in early May.

Prospect to watch
Smith-Shawver has already made the rise to the Majors just two years after graduating high school. His three starts showed he wasn’t quite ready for the Majors, but he could still be needed again at some point this year. Even if there isn’t a need for him to fill a void in the rotation, there’s always a chance he could be utilized out of the bullpen at some point down the stretch.