Braves-Padres position-by-position breakdown

October 1st, 2024

If the season series between the Padres and Braves is any indication of what we’re about to see, it should be a very close National League Wild Card series.

San Diego won four of the seven matchups with Atlanta in 2024, outscoring the Braves by a 26-22 margin. All seven games took place before the All-Star break; the Padres have been the best team in baseball during the second half, going 43-19 following their 50-50 start.

How will the Braves’ Monday doubleheader against the Mets impact them as they travel west for the best-of-three series against the Padres? Here’s how these clubs match up position by position.

Catcher

Kyle Higashioka took advantage of his opportunity when Luis Campusano suffered an injury in June, seizing control of catching duties for the second half of the season. The 34-year-old hit 17 home runs with 45 RBIs in 84 games, setting career highs in both categories. Higashioka is an above-average pitch framer and works well with the staff, but his defense is considered slightly below average overall. In nine career postseason games -- all with the Yankees between 2020-2022 -- Higashioka is 5-for-26 with one home run.

Travis d’Arnaud and Sean Murphy -- the latter of whom missed the first two months after suffering an oblique injury on Opening Day -- have shared catching duties throughout the season. d’Arnaud hit 15 home runs with a .738 OPS in 98 games, while Murphy -- the superior defender of the two -- struggled offensively, posting a career-low .633 OPS with 10 home runs in 71 games. d’Arnaud has played in 55 postseason games compared to only 10 for Murphy, though both players own a .706 OPS in those games.

Slight advantage: Braves

First base

Donovan Solano could see the bulk of time at first base as he did for much of September, part of the Padres’ plan following Ha-Seong Kim’s season-ending injury. Solano posted a .760 OPS with eight home runs in 96 games, providing a versatile veteran bat to insert at the bottom of the lineup. This will be Solano’s third postseason in the past four seasons, though he’s 1-for-18 in 10 career playoff games.

Matt Olson was one of the game's best players in 2023, finishing fourth in NL MVP voting after hitting 54 home runs with 139 RBIs -- leading the Majors in both categories -- and a .993 OPS. This season wasn’t nearly as productive, but the 30-year-old still hit 29 home runs with 98 RBIs and a .790 OPS, ranking in the top 20% of the league in bat speed, average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage.

Advantage: Braves

Second base

Jake Cronenworth shifted from first base to second during the second half, returning to the position he primarily played prior to 2023. The 30-year-old belted 17 home runs with 83 RBIs and a .714 OPS in 155 games, one of four Padres to play in at least 150 games this season. This marks Cronenworth’s third postseason with the Padres since 2020; he’s 18-for-64 (.281) with two home runs and nine RBIs in 18 games.

Ozzie Albies missed two months after suffering a right wrist fracture on July 21, returning for the final 10 days of the regular season. Albies, who hit 10 home runs with 53 RBIs and a .707 OPS in 99 games, will be making his sixth postseason appearance, posting a .656 OPS with three homers in 41 career games.

Slight advantage: Braves

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts had a disappointing second season in San Diego, hitting 11 home runs with 44 RBIs and a .688 OPS in 111 games, though he showed some signs of progress in September (four homers and a .736 OPS in 23 games). Bogaerts -- who turns 32 on Tuesday -- has a pair of World Series rings from his years in Boston, though he owns a career .231/.309/.381 slash line with five home runs in 44 postseason games.

Orlando Arcia will make his seventh straight postseason appearance, having played in 27 games with the Brewers (2018-20) and Braves (2021-23). The 30-year-old had 17 home runs, 46 RBIs and a .625 OPS in 157 games this season, and while he owns a .669 OPS during his nine-year career, he has stepped it up in the postseason (.768).

Advantage: Padres

Third base

Manny Machado had another solid season in 2024, hitting 29 home runs with 105 RBIs and a .797 OPS in 152 games. The six-time All-Star came on in a big way after the break, smacking 16 homers with 53 RBIs and an .876 OPS in his last 62 games. Machado, whose bat speed, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity all rank near the top of the Majors, will be making his sixth trip to the postseason, having hit four homers with a .910 OPS in 12 games during San Diego’s run to the NLCS in 2022.

Austin Riley’s season-ending right hand fracture left Gio Urshela to handle third-base duties, a big blow to the Braves’ lineup. Urshela is a veteran with October experience -- this will be his fifth career postseason appearance -- but he’s not the offensive threat that Riley would have been, even in a down season.

Advantage: Padres

Left field

Was there a better signing this season than Jurickson Profar’s one-year, $1 million contract? The 31-year-old hit 24 homers with 85 RBIs and an .839 OPS in 158 games, starting all but 10 of them in left field. He ranked in the top 12% in chase percentage, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage and walk percentage, drawing 76 walks against 101 strikeouts in 668 plate appearances. Profar will be making his fifth trip to the postseason, having posted a .689 OPS with one home run in 20 career games.

Ramón Laureano was released by the Guardians in late May, then signed with the Braves only days later after Atlanta lost Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season to a knee injury. In 67 games with Atlanta, Laureano hit 10 home runs with an .832 OPS, starting games at all three outfield positions. This will be Laureano’s fourth career postseason appearance and his first since 2020 with Oakland.

Advantage: Padres

Center field

Jackson Merrill’s rookie campaign was spectacular, as the infielder-turned-outfielder hit 24 home runs with 90 RBIs and an .826 OPS in 156 games. Still only 21 years old, Merrill played a superb center field, ranking in the 96th percentile with 11 outs above average and the 90th percentile in arm strength. Having already made an All-Star team, the young slugger will now try to make his mark in October.

Michael Harris II has seen his numbers dip in each of the past two seasons, but the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year was red-hot down the stretch, hitting seven home runs with an OPS well over 1.000 over his final 18 games. Harris’ first two postseasons did not produce great results, as he’s 1-for-27 (.037) in eight NLDS games, all against the Phillies.

Advantage: Padres

Right field

Fernando Tatis Jr. missed more than two months with a stress reaction in his right thighbone, but when he was on the field, the 25-year-old was electric. Tatis hit 21 home runs with an .832 OPS, ranking near the top of the Majors in average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage while owning one of the best outfield arms in the game. Tatis’ lone postseason experience came in 2020, when he posted a 1.126 OPS with two homers in six games.

Jorge Soler has certainly experienced his share of postseason success, winning World Series MVP honors with the Braves in 2021. Atlanta is hoping for another strong October from the 32-year-old after reacquiring him from the Giants this summer prior to the Trade Deadline. In 28 career postseason games, Soler -- who hit nine homers with an .843 OPS in 49 games after the trade -- has a 1.021 OPS with six homers, winning World Series rings with both the 2016 Cubs and ’21 Braves.

Advantage: Padres

Designated hitter

Luis Arraez finished another impressive season, becoming the first player in history to win batting titles with three different teams -- and doing it in three consecutive seasons, no less. Arraez could see time at first base, though he saw most of his action down the stretch as the Padres’ DH. The three-time All-Star had 200 hits for a second straight year, but his limited postseason experience -- he’s been there three times without winning a series -- hasn’t been fruitful, as he’s 6-for-25 (.240) with a .696 OPS in seven games.

Marcell Ozuna was the Braves’ best hitter this season, batting .302 with 39 home runs, 104 RBIs and a .924 OPS in 162 games. Ozuna, who made his third All-Star team this year, will be making his fifth postseason appearance since 2019, having belted five homers with a .736 OPS in 28 games for the Cardinals and Braves. In seven postseason games over the past two years, Ozuna is 2-for-21 with no home runs or RBIs as Atlanta was eliminated by Philadelphia in the NLDS both times.

Slight advantage: Braves

Starting pitching

Michael King will get the call for Game 1, having posted a tremendous five-month stretch (2.42 ERA) following a rough April. Elbow issues limited Game 2 starter Joe Musgrove to two starts between May 1 and Aug. 12, but the righty had a 2.15 ERA over his final nine starts, allowing six of his 12 earned runs in that span in one outing. Dylan Cease would get the nod in Game 3 if the series goes the distance, showing the strength and depth of the rotation.

Atlanta’s rotation led the NL with a 3.58 ERA, but Chris Sale was scratched Monday with back spasms and is unlikely to pitch against the Padres, leaving the Braves with some serious decisions to make regarding the rotation. Charlie Morton started Sunday, Spencer Schwellenbach pitched the first game Monday and Reynaldo López -- who started on Saturday -- pitched in relief in the second game of Monday’s doubleheader. Max Fried could start Game 1 on short rest or Atlanta could opt for a bullpen game, pushing Fried and López to Games 2 and 3.

Advantage: Padres

Bullpen

The Trade Deadline acquisitions of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott gave the Padres one of the most formidable bullpens in the game, adding the pair to set up for All-Star closer Robert Suarez. Adam allowed three earned runs in 26 2/3 innings (1.01 ERA) after joining San Diego, while Scott posted a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances overall this season. Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon and Bryan Hoeing could also be called upon to get important outs, while Yu Darvish could even be available if needed.

Atlanta’s bullpen had the second-lowest ERA (3.32) in the NL, though the Braves also had fewer relief innings than any club in the league and the third-fewest in the Majors. Closer Raisel Iglesias had a 1.95 ERA and 34 saves in 66 appearances, but he pitched in both games of Monday’s doubleheader, giving him four outings since Friday. Joe Jiménez and Pierce Johnson have been effective from the right side, while Dylan Lee is the primary lefty in the pen, but the Braves’ depth could be tested due to the workload over the past few days.

Advantage: Padres

Prediction: Padres in two