This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Health, performance and the opponent are all active variables that could affect who the Braves place on their roster for the National League Division Series that will begin on Oct. 7 at Truist Park. 

Last week, Braves manager Brian Snitker labeled Jesse Chavez, Dylan Lee and Nick Anderson as “unreliable options” because it seemed none of them would be healthy options when the postseason began. But Chavez progressed much faster than expected and may have locked down a NLDS roster spot with his impressive return to the Majors on Wednesday. 

• Braves' postseason FAQ

Lee is out of the picture, but Anderson could become an option at some point during the postseason. 

This year’s NLDS will include an off-day between Games 1 and 2. So, the Braves might only need to carry three starters -- Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton. The Game 1 starter could come back on regular rest for potential Game 4, and the Game 2 starter would be on regular rest for a potential Game 5.

• Postseason Watch: Bracket, tiebreakers and more

But with Fried’s recent blister issue reappearing on Thursday night, it might be wise to carry a fourth starter. Fried was placed on the injured list on Friday. He’ll miss the rest of the regular season, but will be available to start Game 1 or 2 of the NLDS. 

Knowing there will be three off-days within the potential five-game span, the Braves could elect to carry extra position players. They went with 12 pitchers during last year’s NLDS, which had just one scheduled off-day (between Games 2 and 3).

As I began projecting who will be on the postseason roster, I started with the thought of going with just 11 pitchers. Remember there will be three off-days during the NLDS. But it felt like I was stretching to legitimize the existence of a 15th position player.

So, when in doubt, go with an extra arm. 

Here is my prediction:

SPs (4): Strider, Fried, Morton and Bryce Elder

Relief pitchers (8): Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, Brad Hand, Chavez, Kirby Yates, Michael Tonkin

Tonkin had a great relief appearance in Philadelphia on Sept. 12, but he has allowed multiple runs in a lot of his recent outings. He is being carried to provide length. If his struggles continue over the regular season’s final week, Elder or Kyle Wright could fill that role.

Elder would be one of the four starters on the NL Championship Series roster. The question is whether it’s worth putting him in a relief role for a week. He could simulate starts at the team’s Spring Training complex in preparation for the NLCS.

Wright will have to make a strong impression in his final two starts to get a spot on the NLDS roster. He’s still in the Spring Training portion of his preparations. He might be a better option for the NLCS or World Series. But for now, he’s a better option than Collin McHugh, whose recent struggles extended into his first Minor League rehab appearance earlier this week.

With Fried’s blister issue, you could argue it might be wise to carry Wright, Elder and Tonkin. This would erase a position player. But Luke Williams’ inclusion below does feel a little repetitive.

A couple wild cards to follow would be Jackson Stephens and Anderson. Stephens seems to be a real longshot, especially after Thursday’s rough outing, but you’re just looking for somebody to get outs when you don’t want to use your primary relievers. Anderson struggled in his first Minor League rehab appearance earlier this week. He’ll need to be great over the next week to get a spot.

If the Braves carry 12 pitchers, here are the 14 position players I’m predicting will be with them during the NLDS:

Catchers (3): Sean Murphy, Travis d’Arnaud, Chadwick Tromp

Tromp hasn’t been great offensively, but Joe Hudson hasn’t done enough with his bat lately to warrant a 40-man roster flip. So, I’ll predict Tromp will be present in the event the Braves need to run for Murphy or d’Arnaud. This might also allow for a pinch-hit opportunity for one of the two primary catchers. But neither has been lighting the world on fire at the plate. Plus, this isn’t a team that pinch-hits too often.

Infielders (6): Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Nicky Lopez, Austin Riley

Lopez is the only lock among the three backups listed here. Carrying Williams might be seen as a repetitive selection, given Forrest Wall will be on the roster to be the primary pinch-runner. But Williams’ defensive versatility could also provide some value.

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Kevin Pillar, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Wall

If there’s ever a need for another outfielder, Ozuna could fill any of the three spots.