With four Day-1 picks, Blue Jays looking for big night

July 15th, 2022

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson's Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

While the Blue Jays won’t be picking high in this year’s MLB Draft, it will be a busy first day, as they hold four picks (23, 60, 77, 78). Following their first- and second-round picks, those 77th and 78th picks are compensation for losing Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray in free agency. 

Coverage will begin Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on MLB Network, with ESPN also broadcasting the first rounds. Monday (Rounds 3-10) and Tuesday (Rounds 11-20) will each begin at 2 p.m. ET. 

The early 20s are where we could see a run on college outfielders, which hasn’t typically been the way the Blue Jays lean in Round 1. In the most recent MLB.com mock Draft, Jonathan Mayo has them going with Chase DeLauter, an outfielder out of James Madison University. Four picks on Day 1 puts the Blue Jays in an enviable position, though.

“The most important thing is that we have more access to the higher-end talent pool throughout the Draft,” said Shane Farrell, the Blue Jays’ director of amateur scouting. "Sunday night will be a really exciting night, walking out of there with four players we really like.”

Toronto has valued premium positions in the first round recently, primarily pitchers and shortstops, so center field would fall into that, especially in a system that could benefit from more outfield depth. Dylan Beavers out of California and Drew Gilbert out of Tennessee fit that model as well.

With those four picks on Day 1, the Blue Jays will be challenged to balance big swings on upside with “safer” picks. A good recent example of this for the Blue Jays came in 2017, when they selected Logan Warmoth at No. 22, considered to be a safer college shortstop with a high floor, before chasing upside with Nate Pearson at No. 28. These upside opportunities can also come in later rounds, especially considering how bonuses and the likelihood of signing impacts the MLB Draft.

QUICK HITS:
First pick and bonus slot: No. 23 ($3,075,300)
Additional first day picks: No. 77 and No. 78, which are compensation picks for Semien and Ray.
Total bonus pool: $8,367,700
Best pick of the last 10 years (MLB Pipeline): SS  (2016, Round 2)
Last three first picks:
2021: RHP Gunnar Hoglund, No. 19 (traded to Oakland for Matt Chapman)
2020: SS Austin Martin, No. 5 (traded to Minnesota for José Berríos)
2019: RHP Alek Manoah, No. 11 (2022 All-Star)

SCOUTING DIRECTOR SAYS:

This Draft class’ strengths:

“It’s been interesting. There have actually been a lot of injuries at the college level on the pitching side, so it’s kind of decimated that demographic specifically. A lot of the high-end talent is on the high school hitting side, and a lot of the depth that you’ll see early on in the Draft is on the college position player side, as well."

What do the Blue Jays look for in a Draft pick?

“Most importantly, we’re acquiring human beings. Our scouts and our group collectively does a lot of work year-round to get to know the person, their routines, their work habits and also their support systems.”

How do the Blue Jays approach injured players in a Draft?

“Each individual case is different, and it’s more about the alternatives at each pick. If that individual seems to be the best player on the board at that moment, and a lot of the boxes are checked around routines and work habits and the ups and downs that come along with rehabbing an injury like that, I think that is where our comfort lies.”

Will extra picks bring more aggression with risky picks?

“No, no it really doesn’t. Being committed to who we are in our decision-making is really important. Just because we have extra picks doesn’t mean we should be a little reckless or less careful with each pick. This is an important Draft where we have a little more money to spend than if we were just picking straight up in each round. We’ll continue to target the best player available in each round.”

Comparing recent Draft seasons through COVID-19 to 2022:

“It was challenging. Not only for my job, but anybody doing any job, really. This is the first time since January, 2020, that our amateur scouting group has been able to be in Toronto together. Our guys have enjoyed being in the city and being able to go to games at night, so this has been good.”