Toronto faces 3 questions for adding pitching
The Aug. 31 Trade Deadline is about to sneak up on the baseball world, and for the first time since their playoff runs in 2015 and '16, the Blue Jays have the option to be legitimate buyers.
The market itself has already creaked to life, and Toronto general manager Ross Atkins expects there to be plenty of action. The Blue Jays' preferred target is “run prevention" -- a broad group that could include any level of pitcher or a defensive upgrade.
Looking at those subgroups, Toronto's bullpen is already the story of the season, from young starters adopting high-leverage roles to breakout stars like Canadian right-hander Jordan Romano. There’s certainly room for this team to get better defensively, too, but the lineup has been clicking, and the Blue Jays will need that offense down the stretch.
This brings us back to the starting rotation, a group that’s been inconsistent at times and battled injuries in other moments.
“If I had to say just one [area], it would be starting pitching,” Atkins said. “If there’s ways to continue to build upon that depth, we will look to do that.
The Blue Jays will need to consider these three questions as they evaluate the starting-pitching market:
What about 2021?
Next season, the Blue Jays could be without Matt Shoemaker, a pending free agent, and Chase Anderson, whose $9.5 million club option comes with a $500,000 buyout. It will also be the final year of Tanner Roark’s two-year deal, which makes controllable starters even more attractive.
“We’re going to be thinking about how we make this [team] better,” Atkins said recently. “How do we add to it? And how do we complement it? But that doesn’t mean that we won’t consider some level of subtraction. If it is something, we’re thinking about making this foundation stronger for 2020, 2021 and 2022.”
Recently, that’s come in the form of what the Blue Jays call “near-term” talent, such as Anthony Kay or Thomas Hatch -- both of whom were acquired as they neared MLB readiness. In a stretch run, though, Toronto would clearly want a more established arm if that pitcher will be contributing right away.
Those same young arms could easily step into starting roles in 2021, but this past offseason showed us that the Blue Jays don’t believe in the concept of “too much pitching.” Keep in mind that this front office has had some success using money and contracts as tools in deals, and it should have payroll available going forward.
How big is the net upgrade?
If the Blue Jays target a pitcher with control beyond 2020, then a marginal upgrade is much easier to justify over a longer term. If it’s just a one-month rental with hopes of pitching into the postseason, though, clubs will be hesitant to pay much for five to six starts unless it is a clear and undeniable upgrade.
So much of this equation depends on No. 1 prospect Nate Pearson, who underwent an MRI for right elbow tightness on Thursday. A healthy return in September from Pearson would be a massive addition -- if he pitches like he’s capable of. But a tough start to his MLB career paired with an elbow injury makes that dangerous to bet on until there's more clarity.
There are simple questions the Blue Jays will have to ask themselves: “How much better is this prospective pitcher than our in-house option? And is that worth it?”
How are we defining a 'starter' in 2020?
In a perfect world, clubs want to find a front-line starter who gives them six-plus innings every time out. This is an imperfect year, though, and as the Blue Jays know all too well, those deep starts aren’t happening as often. Let’s circle back to Kay and Hatch, as well as Ryan Borucki, as a case study.
With 28 roster spots at their disposal, the Blue Jays have room for creativity when considering the definition of each day's starter. If Toronto doesn't find a traditional workhorse that it likes, there are two alternatives: The club could look for a starter who it believes would be more effective one time through the order, or even a multi-inning reliever with upside.
Using Kay or Hatch in combination with a potential trade acquisition and Borucki following, or any number of other combinations, could easily be labelled a “bullpen day.” With rosters expanded up from 26, though, two pitchers combining to give a team five or six innings can work just as well as a traditional starter when it’s lined up right.