This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TORONTO -- You don’t need abstract algebra to understand the Blue Jays’ struggles. They aren’t that complicated.

Toronto doesn’t hit enough home runs and allows too many.

There are layers within this, of course, but until something changes to improve this core issue, the story will stay the same. Coming out of Saturday’s 6-3 loss to the Guardians, the Blue Jays have hit the second-fewest home runs in the Major Leagues (64) and have given up the second most (102).

Toronto hit three in Saturday’s loss, which was encouraging… but Cleveland hit four.

Even if the Blue Jays were an absolutely elite contact hitting team that reached base at a high rate, this gap in power would be hard to make up for. But they’re neither of those things. So often stuck in tight games as their rock-solid rotation tries to will them to victory, they are losing the “big hit” battle.

It feels like 2021 was a different sport, not just a different team.

Team philosophy

That 2021 team was a turning point for the organization. It’s difficult to romanticize a team that missed the postseason, but with a 91-71 record after playing much of its home schedule on the road due to COVID-19 restrictions, we can cut that group a little slack.

Since then, the Blue Jays have pivoted from a power-hitting club towards pitching and defense. They’ve mostly nailed the “pitching and defense” side of this equation, but it was always going to be a fine balance of maintaining enough pop to be a complete team.

Asked in May about the Blue Jays’ lack of power, general manager Ross Atkins had this to say:

“Doing damage is definitely going to be part of the equation. We don’t have to hit 15 to 30 home runs with six of our guys at the top of the lineup, but we do have to be driving the ball harder,” Atkins said. “We do have the exit velocity, and we see guys hitting the ball hard, but they’re not going over the fence and not enough. We are working very hard to correct that.”

Again, this pulls the mind back to 2021. The home run total for the top six in that lineup: George Springer (22), Marcus Semien (45), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (48), Bo Bichette (29), Teoscar Hernández (32), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (21).

Some things had to be sacrificed in the name of pitching and defense, but this shift in identity has swung far.

Individual performances

This isn’t all by design, of course. Even with this current roster construction, the Blue Jays should be a team that ranks in that No. 10-15 range in MLB for home runs, not at the bottom.

Daulton Varsho (11 home runs) and Davis Schneider (10) are the only players in double digits, while Guerrero Jr. (8) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (6) are the only others with more than five. It’s June 23, so if this doesn’t change soon, the Blue Jays may only have a couple of players crack 20, and they could be hard-pressed to get one over 25.

This is where the Blue Jays hoped to benefit from the upside of their prospects, but MLB announced Sunday morning that Orelvis Martinez (No. 2 prospect) has been suspended 80 games after testing positive for the performance-enhancing drug Clomiphene, a major blow to the organization after he made his MLB debut on Friday.

Drafting and development

It’s all connected. Through the MLB Draft, the Blue Jays have leaned in the direction of contact and on-base ability over power. They’ve targeted more upside recently with picks such as 2023 first-rounder Arjun Nimmala (Blue Jays' No. 3 prospect), and their work on the international market has been more encouraging with young talent such as Enmanuel Bonilla (No. 8 prospect). But this organization needs to develop another wave of talent for 2026 and beyond.

Beyond Guerrero and Bichette, Cavan Biggio was one of this organization’s better draft-and-develop stories in recent years. He was designated for assignment on June 7 and traded to the Dodgers on June 12. The latest wave of prospects arriving from Triple-A Buffalo are a fine start on the next era, along with the underrated Leo Jimenez (No. 5), but this farm system still ranks in the bottom third of baseball.

This isn’t what anyone wants to think about right now, but the Blue Jays could look completely different in a year and a half, or sooner, if they don’t tighten up this margin in home runs and make a run at the third Wild Card spot in 2024.