This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter, written this week by Julia Kreuz. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- The Blue Jays are counting on their familiar core to hold the contention window open.

After an offseason of complementary additions and a spring of offensive adjustments, Toronto will roll out a roster that looks a lot like what we’ve seen in years past -- save for the arrivals of Justin Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez.

This club is banking on the resurgence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Alejandro Kirk to provide support for a pitching staff that was nothing short of brilliant last season. These hitters have the talent, the tools and the motivation to do it, but the American League East isn’t getting any easier. And if the Blue Jays have learned anything over the past two years, it’s that the “just get in” philosophy doesn’t always cut it in October.

Here’s an overview of the team ahead of Opening Day 2024.

What needs to go right: Hitting and health

The Blue Jays’ quiet offseason will look a lot more palatable if they get bounce-back campaigns from their top hitters. Spring Training brought progress in that regard, with Guerrero and Kirk showing up for camp in better shape and hitting the ball in the air more often, while Springer is learning to navigate a new phase of his career while staying productive as the leadoff hitter. Which brings us to injuries. The Blue Jays stayed uncannily healthy last season, but this spring already brought a handful of bad news on that front. Ailments to Kevin Gausman, Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson and Alek Manoah will test the pitching depth early, and the club will need to keep a close eye on workloads so as not to overtax the rotation or the bullpen early on.

Great unknown: Yariel Rodriguez

The Cuban right-hander -- who signed a five-year, $32 million deal this offseason -- is a “wild card,” as manager John Schneider put it in the final days of camp. Rodriguez can start, but he shined as a reliever in Japan two years ago. After an entire season without pitching, the 26-year-old is stretching out to multiple innings, and he could help the Blue Jays in different ways -- especially at a time when pitching injuries are piling on.

But there’s a strong possibility that the 26-year-old Rodriguez will start the season at Triple-A Buffalo in order to continue his buildup after a year-long layoff. The length of his deal shows that the Blue Jays believe Rodriguez can be a long-term contributor, so this is as much about the present as it is about the future.

The Blue Jays’ MVP will be … Bo Bichette

This is the safe bet (for more daring predictions, see below), but Bichette’s consistency can’t be ignored. He ran away with the title of team MVP last season. Then, he showed up to camp with added maturity, renewed motivation and the same knack for hitting that we’ve seen over the years.

Another element to keep an eye on? Basestealing. Bichette swiped just five bags in 2023, but he’s stolen as many as 25 in the Majors and 32 in the Minors. If he can tap into that skill again, it should be yet another headache for opposing pitchers.

The Blue Jays’ Cy Young will be … José Berríos

This isn’t to say that Gausman will take a step back, but Berríos looks poised to continue moving forward. Toronto’s Opening Day starter is coming off a stellar 2023 and a dominant spring. Just as important, the 30-year-old has been a staple of health throughout his career, and he’s in great shape once again this year. With Gausman on the mend from a shoulder issue that delayed his preseason, Berríos’ ability to take the mound every five days becomes even more heightened.

He’s also added a cutter this year, another tool to keep hitters off balance as he works to build on a 3.65 ERA and 184 strikeouts over 189 2/3 innings last season.

Bold prediction: Vladdy will hit 40 or more homers

Two years ago, this wouldn’t be anywhere close to a bold prediction. But a lot can change in two years. Most of the projections have Guerrero hitting between 30 and 33 homers in 2024, and that’s justified by his regression since finishing as the runner-up for AL MVP in ‘21. This feels different from what we’ve seen from him recently, though.

Entering “the prime” of his career, as president and CEO Mark Shapiro put it during Spring Training, Vladdy is in great shape, and he’s pulling the ball a lot more consistently than he did last year. A lot of the offseason talk around this team has involved the coaching staff’s ability to digest and relay information and data to hitters in a way that can help them thrive at the plate. That emphasis is about to take effect, and Guerrero is the ultimate test subject.