Biggest needs for the 11 playoff teams that fell short in '23

Biggest needs for the 11 playoff teams that fell short in '23

November 5th, 2023

Only one team can win it all each year, leaving the other 29 clubs to grapple with varying degrees of disappointment during the offseason.

Some teams, of course, are closer to reaching the promised land than others, perhaps needing just a few strategic additions to transform themselves from contenders into champions.

With this in mind, here’s a look at the one or two major areas the 11 postseason teams who fell short of a title in 2023 should prioritize this offseason -- considering each team's anticipated budget and historical spending patterns in free agency -- not only to ensure that they return to the playoffs but also to improve their chances of winning the World Series in 2024.

Astros: Mid-rotation starter
Potential FA targets: RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Seth Lugo, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, RHP Kenta Maeda, LHP Wade Miley, RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Mike Clevinger

While their position-player group is close to set entering 2024, the Astros have some work to do on the other side of the ball. Houston’s summer trade for (signed through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025) bolstered their rotation beyond 2023, but the club still needs to add at least one starter after their rotation posted a collective 5.11 ERA over 11 postseason outings.

’s 2023 decline is the most obvious concern for the Astros’ starting staff moving forward, but that’s not all. ’s future role is also in question after he pitched to a 6.72 ERA over his final 18 games as a rookie, and (flexor tendon surgery) and (Tommy John surgery) are both coming off significant arm injuries. The Astros typically don’t shop at the top of the free-agent market, but even if they aren’t in the mix for any of the pitchers looking for nine-figure deals, there are some other viable options they should consider.

Blue Jays: Multiple hitters, including at least one LHH (3B, OF, DH)
Potential FA targets: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, OF Cody Bellinger, 3B Matt Chapman, DH J.D. Martinez, OF Teoscar Hernández, 3B Jeimer Candelario, OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 1B/DH Brandon Belt, OF Kevin Kiermaier, OF Joc Pederson

The Blue Jays had a middling offense throughout 2023, ranking 14th in MLB in runs scored (746) and 16th in homers (188), and they were limited to one run in a two-game AL Wild Card Series sweep at the hands of the Twins. Addressing the lineup is Toronto’s top priority, especially with Chapman, Kiermaier and Belt all set to reach free agency. All three are candidates to return, but Toronto needs to do more than simply bringing back the same group it rolled out in 2023.

Ohtani is obviously the best available free agent, but if they don't want to make that large of an expenditure, Bellinger is another option. It might also make sense to reunite with a familiar face such as Hernández or Gurriel, both of whom were traded last offseason, though Toronto would still need to add a left-handed hitter. (Hernández and Gurriel both bat from the right side.)

Braves: Mid-rotation starter
Potential FA targets: RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Seth Lugo, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, RHP Kenta Maeda, LHP Wade Miley, RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Mike Clevinger

The Braves’ roster is absolutely loaded with stars in their primes, setting up the team to be a top contender again in 2024. Given how each of the past two seasons ended for the Braves, with an NLDS loss at the hands of the Phillies, perhaps the most impactful thing Atlanta can do this offseason is make an offering to the baseball gods so that it doesn’t have to play Philadelphia for a third straight postseason. If there is one area the Braves could improve upon, though, it’s their rotation. , and (assuming his club option is exercised) are a strong trio, though Fried was limited to 14 starts due to injuries in 2023, and Morton is entering his age-40 season. , meanwhile, is set to miss all of 2024 following shoulder surgery.

Similar to the Astros, Atlanta is unlikely to be involved with this year’s nine-figure free-agent arms, considering the team has never signed a pitcher in free agency for more than $60 million (’s deal in 2009). But there are other available pitchers who can potentially start postseason games for Atlanta.

Brewers: Multiple hitters (IF, OF, DH)
Potential FA targets: 1B Rhys Hoskins, OF Adam Duvall, 3B Jeimer Candelario, OF Michael Brantley, OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 1B/DH Brandon Belt

With expected to miss all of 2024 following shoulder surgery and both and entering their final year before free agency, it’s possible the Brewers will focus this offseason on planning for the future rather than trying to milk one more year out of their current core. But if Milwaukee does want to make another run in 2024, it must fix its offense.

The Brewers had far too many regulars who were decidedly below average in 2023 -- of the nine players who had at least 300 plate appearances for the team, six posted an OPS+ below 90. No other postseason team had more than four such hitters last season. Outfield prospect (MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 overall prospect) could be a difference-maker, but he can’t be the only major addition to the team’s 2024 lineup.

Dodgers: Frontline starter, designated hitter
Potential FA targets: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, LHP Blake Snell, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP Aaron Nola, RHP Sonny Gray, LHP Jordan Montgomery, DH J.D. Martinez, 3B Matt Chapman

Although they went 100-62 in 2023 and won the NL West for the 10th time in 11 years, the Dodgers enter this offseason with some glaring holes to fill after another early playoff exit. Los Angeles is one of the favorites in the Ohtani sweepstakes, though with the two-way superstar limited exclusively to hitting next season after undergoing elbow surgery, signing him wouldn’t address the Dodgers’ biggest need for 2024. That would be their starting rotation, which was exposed in their NLDS loss to the D-backs. Even if the Dodgers land Ohtani and re-sign Clayton Kershaw, who is expected to be sidelined until at least next summer following left shoulder surgery, they’ll need to add at least one other high-end starter.

It’s also interesting to wonder what a Dodgers offseason that doesn’t involve them signing Ohtani might look like. An alternative plan could see Los Angeles target multiple frontline starting pitchers and either re-sign Martinez as their DH or ink Chapman and move to DH. Frankly, it’s all on the table for the Dodgers.

D-backs: Mid-rotation starter
Potential FA targets: LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Sonny Gray, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, RHP Seth Lugo, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu

Finding reliable starting pitching behind and was an issue all season long for the eventual NL champions. was released after four starts, and the combination of , , and recorded a 5.58 ERA over 79 starts. Pfaadt did show promise during the postseason, aiding Arizona’s shocking run to the World Series, but the club had to roll with a bullpen game in Game 4 of the Fall Classic and allowed 11 runs in a pivotal loss to the Rangers. It may be tough for the D-backs to think about making another sizable expenditure on a starting pitcher given the way their $85 million deal with Bumgarner turned out, but it's something they need to do to avoid a letdown in 2024.

Marlins: Multiple hitters (SS, C, OF, DH)
Potential FA targets: OF/DH Jorge Soler, C Mitch Garver, OF Adam Duvall, SS Tim Anderson, OF Teoscar Hernández, OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., DH J.D. Martinez

Former Marlins general manager Kim Ng did well to improve the team’s lineup at the Trade Deadline, acquiring and , but Miami’s offense wasn’t exactly a juggernaut down the stretch. The team is now at risk of losing its leading home run hitter, Soler, who opted out of his deal.

To build on their surprising 2023 postseason appearance, which came in the face of a -57 run differential, the Marlins not only need to re-sign Soler (or replace his power) but also add another potent hitter to the lineup. Their weakest spots? Catcher, where they ranked 29th in wRC+ (56), and shortstop, where they ranked last (55). After underwent Tommy John surgery, Miami could use another starting pitcher as well, but the club needs to allocate its limited payroll resources wisely.

Phillies: No. 2 starter, closer
Potential FA targets: RHP Aaron Nola, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP Sonny Gray, LHP Jordan Montgomery, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP Josh Hader

The Phillies reached the World Series a year ago and came within a win of doing so again in 2023. With all the talent they've amassed over the past five years, this team has the goods to win it all in 2024 -- assuming they either re-sign Nola or replace him with a viable alternative to serve as the club’s No. 2 starter behind .

With 2023 saves leader also headed for free agency, it’s possible we could see Philadelphia make a big splash at the back end of the bullpen as well. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently mentioned the Phils as a potential fit for Hader, one of baseball’s elite closers. The Phillies have some in-house options to replace Kimbrel in the ninth inning, but given how freely this team has spent in free agency, a Hader signing can’t be ruled out.

Orioles: Frontline starter
Potential FA targets: LHP Blake Snell, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP Aaron Nola, RHP Sonny Gray, LHP Jordan Montgomery, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP Josh Hader

The O’s were one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 regular season, winning 101 games and the AL East title just two years after going 52-110. With its foundation of young talent, Baltimore is poised to remain competitive for years to come. But in order to take a step forward in 2024, the Orioles need to improve their rotation after their starters allowed 13 runs on 20 hits over eight innings in a three-game ALDS sweep against the Rangers.

While , and could be rotation mainstays moving forward, it’s time for the O’s to go out and get a proven frontline starter to lead this staff. Baltimore is also in need of a closer, after underwent Tommy John surgery, which could make them a contender for Hader.

Rays: Starting pitcher
Potential FA targets: RHP Seth Lugo, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Mike Clevinger, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP Wade Miley, RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Kenta Maeda

The Rays’ offense has disappeared in each of the last two postseasons, with the club scoring two runs combined in a pair of two-game sweeps against the Guardians and Rangers. However, it’s hard to pinpoint free-agent options who would be an obvious upgrade over their current position players and also fit within their modest budget. Tampa Bay might be better served to spend money on the other side of the ball after losing a number of starting pitchers to long-term injuries in 2023. Bringing in a starter would also make it more tolerable to trade , who is owed $25 million in his final year before free agency.

Twins: Hitter (1B, OF, DH), mid-rotation starter
Potential FA options: RHP Sonny Gray, 1B Rhys Hoskins, OF Adam Duvall, OF Michael Brantley, DH J.D. Martinez, OF Kevin Kiermaier, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Seth Lugo, RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Kenta Maeda, LHP Wade Miley, RHP Mike Clevinger

The 2023 season can only be considered a positive for the Twins, who snapped a record 18-game postseason losing streak and won their first playoff series since 2002. However, Minnesota ran out of steam against the Astros in the ALDS and finished the postseason with a .201 average and .672 OPS. With frequently injured, adding more offense is perhaps even more imperative than addressing their rotation, which could lose multiple starters to free agency. The Twins will likely try to re-sign Gray, but if he proves to be out of their price range, they could consider some lower-cost options to join , , and in their rotation.