Drafting the best potential October matchups
Monday is Labor Day, and that’s always a sign that baseball’s stretch run is in full swing.
Just four weeks from today, the 2023 regular season will be complete. The 12-team playoff field -- which already is beginning to take shape -- will be settled. The postseason gets underway Tuesday, Oct. 3, with four Wild Card Series contests.
Any October matchup has the potential to produce thrilling drama and indelible moments, but some certainly stand out more, at least on paper. So we tasked seven MLB.com writers with drafting the juiciest possible AL or NL pairings, picking from among the list of clubs with reasonable hopes of reaching the postseason. (In other words, no World Series matchups just yet.) To make things a bit more interesting, we added this rule: Each team could only be selected once.
1. Braves vs. Dodgers
Season series: ATL won, 4-3
Who doesn’t want to see this happen (other than fans of the other NL postseason teams)? We were just treated to an electrifying four-game series between these behemoths, who have the two most explosive lineups in the league. The Braves took three of the four games at Dodger Stadium, but there was history made and two MVP frontrunners whose race only intensified. It all left us wanting more.
With star power galore, it would be a shame if these two clubs didn’t meet in October.
Ronald Acuña Jr., who became the first player in AL/NL history to reach the 30-homer/60-steal milestone in a single season on Thursday, is the definition of “superstar”. He homered in each of the first three games of the series, including a 454-foot blast to center field Saturday that came off his bat with an exit velocity of 121.2 mph.
The man who seems to be neck-and-neck with Acuña in the NL MVP race, Mookie Betts, homered twice in Game 1 of the series, including a shot that Acuña Jr. nearly robbed. If this pair isn’t enough, we haven’t even mentioned Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Max Fried and many other prominent names. What an NL Championship Series matchup this would be.
-- Manny Randhawa
2. Astros vs. Mariners
Season series: SEA leads 8-2 (3 games remaining)
This matchup has a made-for-primetime narrative.
From 2019-22, the Astros had the Mariners under their cowboy boot, winning more than 70% of their regular-season meetings. The young upstart got an opportunity to fell goliath in last season’s ALDS, and although the Mariners proved to be an extremely tough out, they were just a speed bump in the Astros’ road to their fourth pennant and second World Series title in six years.
But in 2023, the Mariners may be primed to finally conquer their rival. They gave the Astros “a wakeup call” with a three-game sweep in Houston last month. They have dominated the season series thanks to the hot-hitting Julio Rodríguez and a starting rotation that owns a 1.80 ERA over 60 innings against Houston. Seattle enters Monday atop the AL West, one game in front of the reigning champs.
But its redemption is far from assured. The Astros, while perhaps not as indomitable as in years past, remain stocked with huge stars and big-game experience. These two squads appear evenly matched for the first time in a long time. And the fact that they’ve had a few tiffs recently adds a dash of spice to an October rematch between familiar foes.
-- Brian Murphy
3. Orioles vs. Rays
Season series: BAL leads 6-3 (4 games remaining)
It is increasingly likely that the top two teams in the AL -- in terms of record and not playoff seeds -- will come out of the AL East. The upstart Orioles have been one of the most exciting teams in the Majors, sparked by an influx of great young talent in players like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. Even with the unfortunate UCL injury news for Félix Bautista -- arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball this year -- a lot is going right for a Baltimore team looking to lead the AL in wins for the first time since 1997.
The Rays started the year 13-0 and were clearly the best team in the early going. After a mediocre stretch in the middle of the season, Tampa Bay has surged with an 18-10 record since Aug. 1, doing so without Shane McClanahan (season-ending Tommy John surgery). Trailing Baltimore by just 2.5 games, the division is still very much up for grabs. If the two meet up in the playoffs, it’d be a heck of a battle between the top teams in the league.
-- Brent Maguire
4. Brewers vs. Cubs
Season series: Tied 5-5 (3 remaining)
It’s hard to get more even than the Brewers and Cubs have been in 2023 -- when playing each other, at least. Milwaukee still holds a 3.5-game lead in the NL Central, but the two clubs have split the 10 games they’ve played thus far; four of those contests (all Cubs victories) have been decided by a single run. The Brewers have a slim 43-38 edge in run differential in those games with three left to play with the North Siders; the two teams will wrap up the regular season from Sept. 29-Oct. 1 in Milwaukee.
And who wouldn’t want to see another set between these two teams in the postseason? There’s plenty of star power on both sides, from Brewers aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff to Cubs newcomers Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger. The contrast is obvious: The Brewers are tied for MLB’s eighth-best ERA; the Cubs have MLB’s 11th-best offense by OPS. Although Chicago trails in the standings (for now), its plus-87 run differential is the third-best in the NL behind only the Dodgers and Braves. The Brewers and Cubs have produced plenty of classics already this season. Sign me up to see some more in the playoffs.
-- Theo DeRosa
5. Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Season series: TEX leads 2-1 (4 remaining)
The players may be different, but you can be sure both of these fan bases remember the hotly contested postseason battles between these teams in 2015-16. The Blue Jays won the first of these matchups, three game to two, after José Bautista memorably slugged a tiebreaking three-run homer -- punctuated by an emphatic bat flip -- in Game 5. The bad blood between the two sides lingered into the following season, leading to an infamous melee involving Bautista and then-Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor. Toronto swept Texas when the teams met again in the 2016 ALDS, though two of the three games were close.
The Rangers haven’t been to the playoffs since, but they’ve returned to contention this season with a roster built through successful free-agent signings such as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien and supplemented by trade acquisitions such as Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery.
Texas has faded lately, but the club still ranks first in the AL in runs scored. Toronto matches up well, though, with one of baseball’s stingiest pitching staffs. The Blue Jays’ offense has been somewhat disappointing, but it’s not for a lack of talent. Assuming Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman return from the IL and rejoin Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer in Toronto’s lineup, the club will have the potential for a postseason eruption.
-- Thomas Harrigan
6. Phillies vs. Giants
Season series: Giants won 4-2
Three words: Gabe Kapler Series. Maybe it doesn’t roll off the tongue as nicely as the “Subway Series” between the Yankees and Mets in the 2000 Fall Classic, but the fact of the matter is that Kapler, the current Giants manager who had the same role in Philadelphia from 2018-19, has not been received well by the notoriously rowdy Philly fans in his recent returns to Citizens Bank Park. Imagine that Phillies crowd riled up even more in a playoff setting, and you have yourself a wild environment.
But putting all Kapler history aside, these teams also match up extremely well on the field. While the Giants won the season series, they won the run differential by a slim 32-30 margin in those games, and the last two showdowns were particularly exciting – a 4-3 Phillies win powered by a Trea Turner walk-off single, followed by a thrilling 8-6 Giants win in extra innings. Factor in the talented arms both teams can bring – Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Alex Cobb – and this could be an instant classic.
-- Cole Jacobson
7. D-backs vs. Reds
Season series: CIN won 4-3
Of all the potential matchups between playoff hopefuls, this is the low-floor, high-ceiling option. Both teams have been exceptionally streaky, spending most of the summer playing themselves into and out of contention. That said, both also boast some of baseball’s most exciting young players, which, as redeeming qualities go, is pretty solid.
The D-backs would bring likely-NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, who came into September having already banked a 20 HR-40 SB season. They’ve also seamlessly integrated 23-year-old catcher Gabriel Moreno and center fielder Alek Thomas, recently graduated from his position as the top-ranked prospect in Arizona’s system. The Reds, for their part, have the electric Elly De La Cruz, flamethrower Hunter Greene and rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott, who has held down their rotation since his debut in June. And, while he may or may not be an option by October, Matt McLain, currently sidelined with an oblique injury, has been as steady as they come in his own rookie campaign.
Regardless of the many kinks these teams are still ironing out, a showcase of young talent on the biggest stage would be a welcome addition to an NL slate otherwise packed with polished veterans.
-- Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru