Here are 5 wise wagers for Tuesday's games

July 5th, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.

The holiday has come and gone, so it’s time to get back to work and find the best MLB bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

Marlins vs. Angels
The wager: Sandy Alcantara under 2.5 earned runs
Line: -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Miami should be a heavier favorite vs. the Angels with Alcantara on the mound, but the Marlins can only be trusted so much offensively. As much as Noah Syndergaard has been middle of the road this season, it feels safer to focus solely on Alcantara vs. the L.A. hitters.

After crushing right-handed pitching to start the season, the Angels have slipped immensely. Since mid-June, L.A. is 27th in wOBA and 14th in ISO against right-handers. They also have an MLB-worst 30.2% strikeout rate against right-handers during that span, which explains why Alcantara’s strikeout prop is so high. Sticking with his earned runs prop is the preferred prop because the right-hander has only given up more than two runs twice this season. While those two performances did come at home, Alcantara has a superior home ERA and strikeout to walk rate.

Yankees at Pirates
The wager: Yankees minus 1.5 runs
Line: -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
José Quintana has put together a solid season and could help Pittsburgh acquire some pieces at the Trade Deadline, but the veteran hasn’t been as sharp as he was at the start of the season. He still has a 3.43 ERA and 3.57 FIP, but those numbers ballooned because of his struggles in June, during which he posted a 4.80 ERA and 4.15 FIP. Now he has to face a Yankees lineup that has the second-highest ISO, fourth-highest hard-contact rate and 10th-best wOBA against left-handed pitching since mid-June.

Believe it or not, as tough as the Yankees have been on lefties, the Pirates have done similar damage against righties. Since mid-June, they’re top 10 in ISO, wOBA and hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching. But the thing is, the Yankees simply don’t lose Jameson Taillon starts. They’re 13-2 with the right-hander on the bump, and they’ve covered the run line in 10 of those starts. More importantly, they’ve covered in each of his six road starts -- it also helps he has a 2.70 ERA on the road.

Red Sox vs. Rays
The wager: First seven innings total under 7.5 runs
Line: -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Fenway should play host to a pitchers’ duel Tuesday. Since May 7, the Rays have lost two Jeffrey Springs starts and the Red Sox have lost two Nick Pivetta starts. Although Springs is coming off a pair of rough outings, both starters enter July after largely thriving throughout June.

Pivetta made it through seven innings in four of his six June starts. Across those four outings, he gave up a total of three runs before the start of the eighth inning. In the two starts he failed to get through seven, he gave up four over five innings and two over six. Springs never made it through seven frames in June, but only one of his five starts went over this first seven innings total.

Additionally, these two lineups have recent splits that are favorable for this under. The Rays rank last in hard-contact rate, 26th in ISO and 16th in wOBA against right-handed pitching since June 15. During that same stretch, the Red Sox have put together a strong wOBA against lefties, but that’s while posting a .375 BABIP, 27.2 hard-contact rate and 47.7% ground-ball rate.

Cardinals vs. Braves
The wager: Cardinals moneyline
Line: +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
These two lineups have been among the toughest on right-handed pitching since June. That could put the over on the 9.5 total in play, but the St. Louis moneyline play is far more appealing because of the Andre Pallante vs. Ian Anderson matchup.

Although Pallante’s 4.97 June FIP is a bit alarming, the right-hander’s 2.97 June ERA indicates he’s due for a win soon. The Cardinals have lost each of his last four outings, so some regression is in order. That could easily be brought forth by Anderson, who posted a 6.91 ERA and 4.40 FIP last month -- especially when you consider the Braves somehow went 4-2 when he took the mound in June.

Astros vs. Royals
The wager: Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases
Line: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
It took him a second to get back on track after the rough collision, but Alvarez is back to work, logging a pair of extra-base hits in each of his last two games. He’ll get his first look at Zack Greinke, who has a 5.27 ERA against left-handed hitting but has only surrendered a .307 wOBA. But, Greinke is also riding a .245 opponent BABIP against lefties despite giving up an above-average line-drive rate.

Not much needs to be said when making a case for Alvarez when he’s facing a righty. In his last 43 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he’s posted a 25.9% line-drive rate, which has helped lead to a .514 ISO and .513 wOBA against righties during that span.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.