Who is the odd man out in the Twins rotation?
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Bailey Ober doesn’t necessarily need extra motivation.
Last March, the lockout had barely ended when the big right-hander strolled up to the Twins’ complex in Fort Myers, Fla., as he’d already made his way south several days earlier to be in position to hit the facility as soon as possible. This winter, he was already in Fort Myers in January, crashing at Randy Dobnak’s condo, to get early work started in the Twins’ environment.
And this spring, he’ll figure to be more motivated than ever. This time last year, he was locked into a spot in the starting rotation. But even after posting a 3.21 ERA and 2.92 FIP across 11 starts in an injury-hampered ‘22 season, Ober now figures to be the odd man out in an extremely crowded Minnesota rotation picture, pushed out of the starting five when the Twins acquired Pablo López from Miami in late January.
“Oh, yeah, I always have a lot of motivation,” Ober said. “I've always got a lot of stuff for why I'm playing this game. I've got a family behind me that supports me every step of the way, and I've been doubted every step of the way, too. I've never been a [top] prospect. It's been there.”
The acquisition of López wasn’t a reflection of how the Twins feel about Ober; it’s just smart roster construction, especially considering how attrition and lack of depth in the starting rotation cost the Twins in consecutive disappointing seasons.
Minnesota had seven pitchers make at least 11 starts in each of those campaigns, with significant frames going to veteran innings-eaters like J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. The Twins are confident that López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and Ober -- with Josh Winder, Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson behind them -- will put them in much better shape, if and when things go wrong.
But if everyone stays healthy this spring, it doesn’t sound like there will be an easy path to the Major League roster for Ober, let alone the starting rotation, as the Twins plan to build him up and keep him stretched out as a starter, which might involve another stint with Triple-A St. Paul.
“I would say we'll progress him like normal, and hopefully, he can find a way to impact us over the course of the year,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “If he ultimately ends up being in the bullpen, we'll make that decision later. He's a starter, and we'll treat him that way.”
It’s a tough situation for Ober and his 3.82 career ERA in 148 1/3 innings, and one largely out of his hands. It’s likely not realistic for him to supplant any of the five veterans ahead of him in the rotation, no matter how his spring goes, and his sophomore campaign last year was also limited by a factor out of his control when he was sidelined for much of the season with two separate stints on the IL with a lingering groin strain.
What’s his view of where he stands with respect to the rotation picture right now?
“Just that I need to go out there and do my part and kind of show everyone what I can do,” Ober said. “Go out and have the right mentality of trying to get better every single day, improve myself. Same thing with everyone else in this clubhouse, they probably have the same goal. That's basically where I'm at right now and what I was told.”
Ober said Wednesday, when all but one of the Twins’ pitchers and catchers reported to camp (Tyler Mahle will arrive late due to the birth of his child), that he feels he’s put together a strong body of work in the Majors, and that he’s excited for the quality of competition.
He knows that much can change in the next month and a half -- and even more can change in the following 162 games, and he’ll have to be ready, even as he continues to face the uncertainty. It’s a good problem for the Twins to have.
“He's working his butt off,” Gray said. “I saw him here last week, over in Minor League camp. I feel like he's in a great spot. He feels like he's in a great spot. I would just say that nothing's set in stone. Just put your head down and work.”