Mailbag: Answering Blue Jays' playoff, offseason questions

September 21st, 2023

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

At this point of the postseason race, all of the expectations and season-long narratives tend to melt away.

Was this Blue Jays team supposed to compete for the AL East? Sure. Have they played a frustrating, roller-coaster brand of baseball at times? Absolutely. Those are things to worry about in the offseason, though, because their full focus rests on these next 11 games.

With the finish line in sight, here’s what’s on your mind:

Who are your projected starters for a WC series in order, depending on which games we win? -- Jack

This is where the chess match gets fun.

Right now, Kevin Gausman is lined up to pitch the final game of the season at home against the Rays. That’s a great spot for the Blue Jays to be in. If they need to win that game for either a postseason berth or preferable seed, their ace is there.

If the Blue Jays have already taken care of business by then, the ideal scenario would be to push Gausman to Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. I like José Berríos in Game 2, which he’s earned with a very impressive season, and from there you have some options. Chris Bassitt, Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi are three drastically different pitchers depending on the lineup Toronto faces, but give me the obvious bet of Gausman in Game 1 with Berríos right behind him.

How do you rank the bullpen arms and is there a clear divide in high/low leverage guys? -- Jaspreet D.

The Blue Jays will want to ride Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza and Jordan Hicks as hard as they can. That’s the group you want out there.

The variable for me is Chad Green. If he looks good in his next few outings, Green could easily move alongside Yimi García on that second tier of arms. In a playoff series, especially a three- or five-gamer, you pray that you aren’t leaning on your seventh and eighth relievers.

If Davis Schneider stays on this current 0-for... will he be in the starting lineup for the WC series? -- Omar R.

This depends, oddly enough, on Brandon Belt. If Belt is back, he and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. occupy the 1B/DH spot, leaving both Cavan Biggio and Whit Merrifield part of the discussion at second. If Belt isn’t back, then there’s more space for Biggio and Schneider.

That said, Schneider needs to be in the lineup. If he hits .051 down the stretch, that changes, but I’m not expecting that. Schneider is one of this club’s best power bats and one home run can win a Wild Card Series. Play to win 8-1, not 2-0.

I'm hoping that Bo Bichette is able to carry this team on his back but I think he needs help. Who will it be? -- Allan W.

Ideally, Vladdy, but he’s dealing with a sore knee and hasn’t sustained many of his hot streaks this season. I still look to George Springer, who comes alive in October and knows the postseason better than anyone on this roster. If Springer is rolling, Bichette coming to the plate after him is an exciting combination that can blitz pitchers. We haven’t seen it much, but it’s time.

What happens to Nate Pearson this offseason? Could a trade be on the horizon? -- @PehPeh75

Interesting idea. Pearson has looked fantastic 90% of the time. The other 10% is what the Blue Jays need to work on. Pearson will still have options next season, which is very valuable, so I think he stays in that one-to-two-inning role and competes for a job out of Spring Training.

That said, if I’m a rival GM talking trade with the Blue Jays this offseason, Pearson makes plenty of sense to target. The Blue Jays’ bullpen should be stacked again, but he could find a much larger opportunity elsewhere.

Who do you think is replacing Matt Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier next year (assuming KK isn't back)? -- Brad P.

Let’s include Merrifield here, too, assuming that mutual option isn’t picked up.

Merrifield: This is where some combination of Biggio, Schneider and eventually Orelvis Martinez could absorb his role. Even though Spencer Horwitz isn’t a second baseman, he could also have a spot on this roster, which frees Biggio from first base.
Kiermaier: I expect the Blue Jays to pursue a reunion. If not, you slide Daulton Varsho to center field and look for a left fielder, which is a better market in which to shop. Keep No. 7 prospect Alan Roden in mind.
Chapman: No. 5 prospect Addison Barger is playing plenty of outfield now in Triple-A, so he’ll be a factor there and in this competition. If I had to place my bet today? A veteran on a short-term deal and the trade market is a likely avenue.