Where could Bregman land in free agency?
Mark Feinsand
@feinsandWith the 2024 season behind us and the Hot Stove ready to burn, we're taking a closer look at some of the most prominent players in free agency.
Name: Alex Bregman
Position: Third baseman
Team: Houston Astros
Age (on Opening Day 2025): 30
2024 stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBIs, 79 runs, 118 OPS+, 4.1 fWAR
Since last winter, Bregman and the Astros appeared headed toward a contract extension, one that would keep the two-time All-Star in the only big league uniform he has ever worn.
Yet here we are in mid-November and Bregman is a free agent, opening the door for him to leave the club that drafted him with the second overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft.
Bregman’s walk season did not start well. He didn’t hit his first home run until the final day of April, and he had a pedestrian slash line of .201/.270/.264 through his first 37 games, with a .534 OPS. From May 13 through the end of the season, however, Bregman looked like his old self, hitting 25 home runs with 62 RBIs and an .845 OPS over his final 108 games.
Like Willy Adames at shortstop, Bregman is the clear-cut top option at his position on the current free-agent market. So clubs seeking help at the hot corner will surely check in with agent Scott Boras about Bregman.
Will the Astros find a way to keep Bregman in Houston? Will one -- or both -- of the New York clubs pivot to Bregman if they’re unable to sign Juan Soto? Let’s take a look at how Bregman’s offseason might play out:
POTENTIAL SUITORS
Astros
The Astros have maintained all year that keeping Bregman in Houston is their top priority, though an extension was never worked out. Now that Bregman is a free agent, he will be able to field offers from other teams. Still, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Astros step up and do what it takes to retain their longtime star.
Yankees
Bregman has been part of the Houston core that has beaten the Yankees in the ALCS three times since 2017, so New York is well aware of how dangerous the third baseman can be. Jazz Chisholm Jr. manned the hot corner for most of the Yankees’ games after the Trade Deadline, but he could shift to second base if New York signs Bregman or any other third baseman. Whether the Yankees are able to re-sign Soto could determine how aggressive they are with the rest of the free-agent market.
Mets
Much like the Yankees, the Mets’ pursuit of Soto could set the tone for the rest of their offseason. Pete Alonso’s free-agent future also will play into New York’s interest in Bregman. If the Mets let Alonso walk, they can either bring in a new first baseman or move Mark Vientos to first, opening third base for a potential acquisition such as Bregman.
Tigers
Gio Urshela and Matt Vierling started 108 games combined at third base last season for the Tigers, who ranked near the bottom of the American League at the position with 11 home runs (tied for 13th) and a .644 OPS (10th). Bregman’s reunion with manager A.J. Hinch would allow the Tigers to use Vierling in a super-utility role, while adding a much-needed bat to Detroit’s lineup.
Blue Jays
If it feels as though the Blue Jays are a potential suitor for every significant free agent, it’s because they are. Toronto showed a willingness to spend big during its pursuit of Shohei Ohtani last offseason, and the Jays have thrust themselves into the Soto sweepstakes. The Blue Jays had marginal production from third base last season after letting Matt Chapman walk as a free agent, so Bregman would be a solid upgrade. Signing him would also protect Toronto from the potential loss of Bo Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a year from now.
Mariners
Third base was a problem area for the Mariners in 2024. They ranked near the bottom of the AL at the position in OPS (.643, 11th), home runs (12, 12th) and RBIs (49, 13th). Given their stellar starting rotation, the Mariners will look to upgrade the lineup this offseason, with third base being an obvious area of need.
Nationals
Washington’s .589 OPS at third base ranked 29th in the Majors last season, ahead of only the White Sox (.533). Four different players started at least 30 games at the hot corner for the Nationals last season, though none were able to produce at the plate. With the promotion of top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews last season, the Nationals might look to add some veteran free agents to help move themselves into contention. Brady House, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Nats’ No. 3 prospect, plays third base, but Bregman’s willingness to change positions could keep him in play for Washington.
EXECUTIVE TAKE
“Bregman had a good year, with 26 home runs, a 118 wRC+ and a 4.1 fWAR, winning a Gold Glove at third base. But one of the hot topics entering free agency was whether he would be willing to make the shift to second base, which his camp has said he would consider. This allows interested teams to really take a look at their roster makeup to see how they can get the most out of their players, but it also allows teams without a third-base vacancy to consider him at second. A long-term contract in the $200 million range seems more than achievable for Bregman this offseason.”
BUYER BEWARE
Bregman had an abrupt drop-off in his walk rate this year, coming in at 6.9% after posting a walk rate of at least 11% in each of the six seasons from 2018-23. A reliable on-base guy throughout his career (.373 OBP from 2016-23), Bregman’s .315 OBP in 2024 was his lowest since his 49-game debut season in 2016. Also of note: Bregman’s 23.6% chase rate was his highest since 2017, while his 44.9% swing rate was his highest since 2016.
FOR COMP'S SAKE
Bregman is unlikely to find himself in the same territory as Manny Machado ($350 million), Rafael Devers ($313.5 million), Nolan Arenado ($260 million) or Anthony Rendon ($245 million), but Austin Riley (10 years, $212 million) and Matt Chapman (six years, $151 million) might be better barometers. Bregman might not get a decade-long deal, but he should exceed Riley’s average annual value over six or seven years.