3 keys to Cards claiming NLDS in St. Louis
ST. LOUIS -- The Cardinals endured record temperatures and enough tomahawk chops to split the first two games of the National League Division Series on the Braves’ turf, and now they return home hoping to avoid another trip south. They can accomplish that by taking the next two installments of this NLDS at Busch Stadium, beginning with Sunday’s Game 3.
It’s set to be an electric atmosphere at Busch Stadium for St. Louis’ first postseason game since 2015, when Adam Wainwright opposes Mike Soroka in a contrast-filled matchup. It will be the postseason debut for the 22-year-old Soroka; it’ll be the 38-year-old Wainwright’s 25th playoff appearance, and 13th start.
Soroka posted the NL’s best road ERA (1.55) this season, but the Cardinals went 50-31 at Busch, tied for the NL’s third best home record. The Braves, for what it’s worth, posted the same record at SunTrust Park this season.
“We played good ball here all year, and the crowd will be rocking,” Wainwright said. “We know they’ll show up in droves and be tailgating all morning long. I just know it. They’ll be waving some sort of towel or something, making it cool-looking. … It’s good to be back home and playing in front of an atmosphere that is very comfortable for us, is home for us, and we respond well here.”
Here are three things the Cardinals need to do to make sure this series doesn’t go back to Atlanta:
Get vintage Waino
The Cardinals didn’t expect the durability or the performance they got from Wainwright in 2019 after signing him to an incentive-laden one-year deal last offseason, but they certainly had no problem taking it. In going 14-10 with a 4.19 ERA in 31 starts, Wainwright put together his best full season since '14 -- which, coincidentally, was the last time he made a postseason start.
The Cards would benefit supremely from a classic performance from the longtime face of their staff, the type of October outing on which Wainwright built much of his legacy. Wainwright's 25th postseason appearance on Sunday will be the most in franchise history for a pitcher; he already tops the franchise’s postseason leaderboard in strikeouts (96), walks per nine innings (1.52) and ranks second in innings pitched (89) and tied for fifth in wins (4).
The Cardinals will have Miles Mikolas available out of the bullpen and Dakota Hudson tabbed for Monday’s Game 4, but it all begins with Waino.
“I think its appropriate Adam starts our home playoff game in a deadlock series,” manager Mike Shildt said. “In this case, being back at home and the pageantry of it, the first postseason game in several years. … It will be exciting.”
Chase Soroka from the game
Soroka was elite all year at preventing runs; on the road, he was simply one of baseball’s best. The Braves’ bullpen, on the other hand, wasn't, and Chris Martin’s oblique injury throws a wrench in what was already a shaky late-innings situation for Atlanta. The Braves’ best bet on Sunday is asking Soroka for six innings and then handing the ball to emerging fireman Max Fried. The Cardinals’ best chances lay in breaking that bridge, and that means jumping on Soroka early and often.
How? For one, Shildt strongly suggested he’d start Matt Carpenter to give his lineup another left-handed option. That should give St. Louis four (along with Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman and Kolten Wong) to combat Soroka’s strength: pounding sinkers to right-handed hitters. Soroka throws 49.5 percent sinkers to righties, who hit just .229 and slug .282 against the pitch. Soroka plays it primarily off his slider, against which opposing hitters had a .154 average and a .224 slugging percentage.
St. Louis slugged just .346 against breaking balls this year as a team.
“I don’t think there are going to be a lot of surprises about what we’re going to get from Soroka,” Shildt said. “It’s a matter of whether we can do what we expect to do.”
Another key is not playing into Soroka’s hands. He hardly walks anyone, but he posted a higher first-inning ERA (4.66) than in any other frame this season. Getting to him early probably means being aggressive in the strike zone, but not being overanxious in ways that allow Soroka get rolling.
“They’ve got some guys that’ve done some damage,” said Soroka, who held the Cardinals to two runs (one earned) over 13 innings this season. “Having faced them twice this year, we’ll be able to go back and look at previous pitches, previous at-bats we want to improve on and make a plan.”
Continue to neutralize Atlanta's lefties
This was a key going into the series, and the Cardinals have done a decent job of it thus far. Outside of Freddie Freeman’s ninth-inning homer in Game 1, the Braves haven’t seen much action from their quartet of left-handed bats. Nick Markakis and Matt Joyce have combined to go just 3-for-14. Brian McCann has doubled and singled in five at-bats, but Atlanta may opt to start right-handed Tyler Flowers on Sunday.
Still, it’s not hard seeing this series come down to one big at-bat between Freeman and, say, Andrew Miller, whom the Cardinals acquired last offseason for such situations. Freeman is 0-for-2 in his career off Miller. Markakis is 3-for-16. Joyce 1-for-5.
But don’t discount the way Tyler Webb and Genesis Cabrera may factor in as well. Webb retired Freeman, Josh Donaldson and Markakis in order in Game 2; lefties hit just .157 against Webb this season.
Joe Trezza is a senior content producer for MLB.com.