What to watch for in each NLDS Game 3

What to watch for in each NLDS Game 3

October 8th, 2024

The best thing about a Game 3 is when you know, no matter what, there will be a Game 4. That’s the case for both of the National League Division Series, which are tied at 1-1 as they switch venues to play in front of a couple of extremely excited fanbases.

Every day throughout this postseason, I’ll be previewing the next day’s action, game-by-game, with the major storyline for each team.

Here are the top storylines for each of Tuesday’s NLDS games.

NLDS Game 3: Phillies at Mets
5:08 p.m. ET, FS1
vs.

Phillies: Can they solve their road woes?

The Phillies were one of the best teams in baseball this year; their 95 victories marked their highest win total since their 102-win season in 2011. But that’s primarily because of their record at Citizens Bank Park: 54-27, the best home record in baseball. On the road, they were only 41-40, essentially a .500 team. That’s an ominous number for a team heading into what will surely be a cauldron of noise in Queens, playing their first road game this postseason. This isn’t just a 2024 thing, by the way: The Phillies have actually lost five of their last six road playoff games dating back to Game 6 of the 2022 World Series. If they don’t figure out a way to win on the road, and fast … this series could be over by Thursday.

Mets: How wild is Citi Field going to be?

One underappreciated aspect to the three eighth-inning-or-later comebacks the Mets have pulled off over the last eight days? Every single one of those games has been on the road: One in Atlanta, one in Milwaukee and one in Philadelphia. The Mets finally get to play a game in Queens for the first time since Sept. 22 -- a game in which they beat Zack Wheeler and the Phillies, by the way -- and, it’s fair to say, Mets fans are going to be pretty excited to see them. You could argue three of the, oh, 10 most legitimately breathtaking moments in Mets history have happened in the last week, and this is the fans’ first opportunity to welcome them home. This is to say: Citi Field is going to be electric. That’s a stadium, and a fan base, that can have an almost hockey-arena feel at its best, with fans close together, communal and in many ways right on top of the field. And they’re going to be facing their hated division rivals from Philly. It might get loud.

NLDS Game 3: Dodgers at Padres
9:08 p.m. ET, FS1
vs.

Dodgers: Does Walker Buehler have anything left?

Walker Buehler is, simply put, one of the best postseason pitchers in Dodgers history. In 15 postseason starts, he has a 2.94 ERA, with 101 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings. He was brilliant in the 2018 World Series, he was brilliant in the 2020 World Series, and while he didn’t win the 2020 NLCS MVP (Corey Seager did), he probably should have (he gave up one run in two starts against the Braves that series). But that guy looks like a very different guy than this guy. This guy, one Tommy John surgery and four years later, has gotten shelled all year, putting up a 1-6 record with a 5.38 ERA. This Buehler is walking more guys than he ever has before, striking out fewer and giving up more than a hit an inning and nearly two homers a game. An intriguing sublot is that he is about to enter free agency, so a good start here would be extremely beneficial to him, as well as the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ rotation issues have been well documented, and one of their few hopes this postseason was that Buehler would recover enough to look like his old self. There has been little evidence that such a transformation is coming. But the Dodgers have no choice to beg for one regardless.

Padres: Did San Diego win the Juan Soto trade? Tuesday might provide an answer.

I’m not saying that the Padres don’t miss Juan Soto, but goodness, did anyone realize just how good of a starter they were getting in Michael King? His Wild Card Series Game 1 start against the Braves wasn’t his postseason debut -- he threw two innings in relief in the 2020 ALDS for the Yankees -- but it was his introduction to the world as the sort of shutdown ace every team desperately wants in the playoffs: seven innings pitched, 12 strikeouts, no walks, five hits, no runs.

It’s a continuation of what King has been doing for weeks now: His 2.15 ERA after the All-Star break was the fourth-best in baseball. (And the best of any pitcher still in the playoffs.) The Padres’ starting pitching edge over the Dodgers is their widest positional advantage of any in this series. And the pitching matchup in this game, with the struggling Buehler against the rolling King, looks like a downright mismatch.