Our expert picks for each Wild Card Series

Our expert picks for each Wild Card Series

October 1st, 2024

The 2024 MLB Postseason has arrived, and the stage is set for a thrilling month of October as baseball's best teams vie for World Series glory.

All four Wild Card Series begin today, starting with the Tigers and Astros (2:32 p.m. ET on ABC) at Minute Maid Park. Later on, the Orioles will host the Royals (4:08 p.m. ET on ESPN2) and the Mets will visit the Brewers (5:32 p.m. ET on ESPN). The action-packed day will conclude with a showdown between the Braves and the Padres (8:38 p.m. ET on ESPN) at Petco Park.

In advance of these intriguing matchups, we asked a number of MLB.com experts to weigh in and make their predictions on how the first round of the 2024 playoffs will turn out. Check out their picks for each series below.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tigers (6) at Astros (3)

The pick: Astros

In search of their eighth straight AL Championship Series appearance and third World Series title since 2017, the Astros are the clear favorites over the upstart Tigers, who made an improbable late-season run to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

The Tigers were 10 games out of a playoff spot entering play on Aug. 11, but they closed the season on a 31-13 run to grab the third AL Wild Card berth. Detroit has the momentum on its side, and it also has ace pitcher , who won the AL pitching Triple Crown with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts.

However, our voters think the Astros’ home-field advantage and October experience will be too much for the Tigers to overcome, even with the questions surrounding Houston slugger ’s sprained right knee. The Astros had a tough road of their own to reach the postseason, coming back from a 10-game deficit in the AL West through June 18 to win the division.

  • "The Astros know how to turn it on in October, and even with the uncertainty surrounding Alvarez, I just don't see them losing two out of three at home." -- David Venn, reporter
  • "The Astros' home-field advantage and sheer volume of playoff experience give them the edge." -- Michael Reynolds, producer
  • "The Tigers are a terrific story. The Astros are battle tested, and the better team." -- Anthony DiComo, reporter

The dissenting view

"The Astros will either be without Alvarez, or have him potentially hampered by a knee sprain. It's a lot to put on and 's shoulders. That, plus some major "team of destiny" vibes gives the Tigers and former Houston manager A.J. Hinch a slight edge in what should be a tight series." -- Casey Drottar, producer

Royals (5) at Orioles (4)

The pick: Orioles

With superstar shortstop and All-Star starting pitchers and leading the way, the Royals became just the third team in MLB history to reach the postseason the next year after losing 100 games, joining the 2017 Twins and 2020 Marlins.

But our experts give the slight edge to the Orioles, who are looking to avoid another quick postseason exit after being swept by the eventual World Series champion Rangers in the AL Division Series a year ago.

Baltimore lacks rotation depth behind and , but that might not matter in a short series, all of which will be played at Camden Yards. The Orioles also have a deeper lineup surrounding their own superstar shortstop, , especially with and back from the IL.

  • "The Royals just don't have enough hitters to win this series as the O's will be able to pitch around Witt at almost every turn." -- Matt Meyers, vice president, content
  • "The starting rotation might not be as stable, but after an early exit last season, this O’s team has unheralded contributors among a young core that has carried the team into back-to-back postseasons." -- Kenny Van Doren, producer
  • "The O’s are finally emerging from their long slump at the right time, with key bats returning. Their rotation is thin but has enough firepower to win a short series." -- Andrew Werle, editor

The dissenting view

"Forget that the Royals limped to the finish [11-14 in September]; it's a new season and Kansas City has something to prove." -- Mark Feinsand, reporter

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Mets (6) at Brewers (3)

The pick: Brewers

After losing manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs in free agency and trading ace pitcher to the Orioles in February, the Brewers weren’t a popular pick to win the NL Central entering 2024. However, Milwaukee was in first place for most of the season and cruised to its second straight NL Central crown by a 10-game margin -- the largest of any division winner -- relying on its speed, defense and elite bullpen to win 93 games.

The Brewers are without former NL MVP , who underwent season-ending back surgery in August, but our experts like their chances to take down the Mets in the NL Wild Card Series.

The Mets battled back from a 22-33 start to make the playoffs, going 67-40 over their final 107 games, but they may be worn down after facing a grueling schedule to end the regular season. Since their last homestand ended on Sept. 22, the Mets have had to travel from New York to Atlanta to Milwaukee, back to Atlanta and then to Milwaukee again, and they'll enter Game 1 of the Wild Card Series having played five games over the past four days.

  • "This dynamic, athletic Brewers team will be rested and ready to take down the jetlagged Mets." -- Anthony Castrovince, reporter
  • "The Brewers are an exceptionally balanced club, and their pitching staff will be able to keep the Mets bats at a low roar." -- Josh Jackson, producer
  • " is going to do something amazing." -- Matthew Leach, director, MiLB content and strategy

The dissenting view

"Welcome to the show. He will have a great series." -- Jesse Sanchez, editor

Braves (5) at Padres (4)

The pick: Padres

The Braves overcame numerous injuries to get to the playoffs, losing , and for the season along the way, but our experts think they’ll have trouble hanging with a balanced Padres team that posted MLB’s best record (43-20) after the All-Star break.

San Diego also dealt with injuries to some key players this season, but with , , and all back, the team heads into the postseason in great shape.

The Braves' excellent pitching staff gives them a chance, though NL Cy Young Award frontrunner 's status is in question after he was scratched from Monday's scheduled start due to back spasms.

  • “San Diego might be the best team in the National League.” -- Mark Feinsand, reporter
  • “The Padres have all the parts a team needs to make an October run: a dangerous lineup, solid starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen and a big chip on their shoulder.” -- Michael Reynolds, producer
  • “The Padres juuuuust might be the scariest team in the postseason this year.” -- Jason Catania, editor

The dissenting view

“Atlanta's pitching is too good for San Diego in this matchup.” -- Josh Jackson, producer