5 closest All-Star Ballot races after latest update

5 closest All-Star Ballot races after latest update

June 25th, 2024

Read our story on the balloting format, which includes two phases of fan voting to determine the All-Star starters.

As Phase 1 of voting for the 2024 MLB All-Star Ballot presented by BuildSubmarines.com reaches its conclusion at noon ET on Thursday, the latest update on vote totals reveals plenty of positional races that could end with razor-thin margins.

Of course, the margin that matters here is not between the No. 1 and No. 2 players at each spot -- that margin is largely irrelevant, as the top two players at each position (and the top six outfielders) will advance to Phase 2 of voting with a chance to start the 2024 MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard on July 16 at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Phase 1 vote totals will not carry over to Phase 2 voting, which begins at noon ET on Sunday, June 30, and continues until noon ET on Wednesday, July 3.

The battle in question is between the No. 2 and No. 3 spots (or the No. 6 and No. 7 spot for outfielders) as players jockey to be in position to advance. With that in mind, here’s a look at the closest races as we near the end of Phase 1:

AL DH: (NYY) vs. (CLE)
717,023 votes vs. 706,262 votes

Talk about an unexpected All-Star ballot storyline. Only 10,761 votes -- but more than 400 career home runs -- separate Stanton (second spot) and Fry (third spot), by far the closest gap of any positional race for the last spot (no other race is under 50,000 votes). Stanton has had a resurgent campaign (18 home runs, .492 SLG) after a career-worst season in 2023, although he was just placed on the injured list for a hamstring strain and could be out through the All-Star break. Fry, meanwhile, has had a remarkable breakout season (.955 OPS in 55 games) and is a key factor in Cleveland’s spot atop the AL Central.

Leading AL DH: Yordan Alvarez (HOU)

NL third base: (SD) vs. (MIL)
545,259 votes vs. 486,267 votes

Roughly 60,000 votes separate two third basemen at very different junctures of their careers. Machado is already a six-time All-Star playing in his 13th big league season and is having a down year (.694 OPS) compared to his career norm (.823 OPS). The 25-year-old Ortiz, meanwhile, is blossoming in his first full MLB season (.832 OPS) after being a key piece in last offseason’s Corbin Burnes trade.

Leading NL 3B: Alec Bohm (PHI)

NL DH: (ATL) vs. (PHI)
940,851 votes vs. 880,794 votes

This is Shohei Ohtani’s position to lose (he’s nearly doubling Ozuna’s vote total), but there’s certainly a battle for the second spot. Ozuna holds a lead of just over 60,000 votes -- meaning Schwarber has some serious ground to make up this week. While Ozuna has shined all season with a .986 OPS and 21 home runs, June Schwarber has been out in full force of late. The Phillies slugger has six home runs and a .581 SLG this month but has actually lost ground with Ozuna since the first update.

Leading NL DH: Ohtani (LAD)

NL catcher: (PHI) vs. (LAD)
1,081,907 votes vs. 955,726 votes

Realmuto likely won’t be able to participate in this year’s game due to right knee surgery that is expected to keep him out until around mid-July. While Realmuto has certainly produced well for a catcher (104 OPS+ in 51 games), it’s also below his career norm. Smith, on the other hand, is doing what he’s always done: Produce like one of the top catchers in the sport, with an .821 OPS and 11 home runs. Despite that, he has more than 126,000 votes to make up on Realmuto.

Leading NL catcher: William Contreras (MIL)

AL outfield: (BAL) vs. (NYY) vs. (BAL)
649,710 votes vs. 512,766 votes vs. 512,352 votes

It’s a battle of AL East outfielders for the sixth and final spot in Phase 2, with Cowser holding a lead of roughly 137,000 votes over Verdugo and Mullins -- who are separated by just over 400 votes. After Cowser hit six home runs with a 1.004 OPS through the end of April, he’s cooled off with a .584 OPS and three home runs since then. Still, Cowser has accumulated 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs) as he tries to make the Midsummer Classic in his first full MLB season. To advance to Phase 2, he’ll have to hold off his teammate Mullins, as well as Verdugo, who has a .708 OPS in his first season with the Yankees after coming over in a trade from the Red Sox.

Importantly, if Aaron Judge maintains his position as the leading vote-getter in the AL, he will receive an automatic spot in the Junior Circuit's starting lineup for the All-Star Game, and only the next four outfield finalists will advance to Phase 2 to determine who starts at the two remaining spots. That means Cowser would be on the outside looking in behind teammate , who currently holds the No. 5 spot with 808,100 votes -- a margin of about 158,000 votes over Cowser's total.

Leading AL outfielders: Judge (NYY), Juan Soto (NYY), Kyle Tucker (HOU)