Who has the edge in MLB’s best division race?

Who has the edge in MLB’s best division race?

September 2nd, 2024

It’s going to be a September to remember in the American League Central.

Monday’s Guardians-Royals series opener at Kauffman Stadium is the start of a crucial week in what has become the most competitive division in the Majors. Kansas City will host six games against the two teams it’s fighting for the AL Central crown, facing Cleveland again on Tuesday and Wednesday before welcoming in the Twins for three games over the weekend.

For three teams separated by just 3 1/2 games entering Monday, it’s the start of a crucial home stretch in a surprisingly close division. 2024 appears destined to be the first full season in a decade in which control of the Central comes down to the wire. If that holds true, buckle up: It’s going to be a fun ride.

Here’s a breakdown of the 2024 AL Central race -- and which team might come out on top when all is said and done.

The history

Yes, it really has been 10 years since the AL Central was closely contested. (We’re not counting 2020, when the Twins beat out Cleveland and the White Sox by one game each in the shortened 60-game campaign.)

AL Central winner and margin, 2015-23
2015: Kansas City, 12 games
2016: Cleveland, 8 games
2017: Cleveland, 17 games
2018: Cleveland, 13 games
2019: Minnesota, 8 games
2020: Minnesota, 1 game
2021: Chicago, 13 games
2022: Cleveland, 11 games
2023: Minnesota, 9 games

You have to go back to 2014 to find a competitive Central. That year, the Royals won six of their final eight games but lost the division by a single game to the Tigers. (Kansas City got the last laugh, beating Oakland in an instant classic Wild Card Game and making it all the way to the World Series.) The Tigers won the Central by a single game in 2013 and by three games in 2012, so it wasn’t a one-off, either.

But ever since 2015, things have been different. The Guardians and Twins have won seven of the past nine division titles, and besides 2020, the division hasn’t been within eight games a single time. One of the three teams vying for the 2024 Central title could pull away in a similar fashion this month, but it doesn’t seem likely. The Guardians led the division by nine games on June 25 but saw their lead slip away, with three straight losses to the Royals bringing the division into a dead heat for a time last week.

Entering play Monday, Cleveland is back in the AL Central lead, while the Twins and Royals are 3 1/2 games out of first. The Tigers (8 1/2 games back) still have an outside shot, but let’s focus on the three top contenders for now.

Here’s how each of the AL Central challengers stacks up at the start of a crucial September.

The contenders

Guardians (78-59), 1st place
Last 10 games: 5-5 record
Last division title: 2022
Biggest strength: Relief pitching
Biggest weakness: Starting pitching

The Guardians weren’t among the projected AL playoff field in MLB.com’s staff preseason predictions, which now seems like a major oversight. Cleveland has been one of the best teams in the Majors all season, winning on Opening Day and staying above .500 ever since. has been as productive as ever, was flirting with a .400 batting average into June, and has been lights out at the back end of the bullpen. Speaking of that bullpen, its 2.80 ERA is the best in MLB by a WIDE margin thanks to unheralded names (besides Clase) like , , and .

But starting pitching has already given Cleveland some trouble. Ace underwent Tommy John surgery back in April, and and have missed time with injuries. Cleveland starting pitchers have thrown the eighth-fewest innings of any team’s starters, and their 4.62 ERA is the seventh-worst mark in MLB. Of the six teams below the Guardians in starter ERA, only the D-backs have any real chance at a postseason berth.

Twins (74-62), 3 1/2 games back
Last 10 games: 4-6
Last division title: 2023
Biggest strength: Power hitting
Biggest weakness: Health

“Health” isn’t exactly a shortcoming any contending team can address at the Trade Deadline, but it’s certainly a real issue facing the Twins. , , and are among the Minnesota players currently on the injured list, and has been limited to 57 games this season by multiple injuries. The Twins offense is hard to stop when its big bats are all in the lineup, but that hasn’t happened often in 2024.

Still -- and despite three rough series against the Padres, Cardinals and Braves -- the Twins are capable of winning the AL Central. , and rookie starters and have held it down in the rotation, while Minnesota’s .746 team OPS ranks seventh in the Majors. Ryan and Paddack won’t return in the regular season, but if Correa and Buxton come back soon, the Twins will be at (relatively) full strength to make a run in September -- and perhaps October.

Royals (75-63), 3 1/2 games back
Last 10 games: 3-7
Last division title: 2015
Biggest strength: Starting pitching
Biggest weakness: Relief pitching

Compared to the Guardians, it’s almost the opposite case for the Royals, whose starters have been excellent but whose relief corps has struggled. Injuries have been a problem, too: The Royals lost starter to the IL on Wednesday, and first baseman is out 6-8 weeks with a fractured right thumb. Kansas City dropped into a tie for second place in the division after a four-game sweep at the hands of the Astros from Thursday to Sunday, with Minnesota ahead by a smidgen in win percentage.

Still, though, it’s hard to count out a team powered by The young shortstop has become a true superstar, leading MLB in batting average at .340 with 30 homers, 27 steals and outstanding defense at short. With Witt leading the way -- and depth in the rotation in the form of , , and -- the Royals have made a remarkable turnaround from 2023’s last-place, 56-106 team.

The road ahead

Which team comes out on top in the AL Central will depend heavily on the remaining schedules for each contender. Here’s where the Guardians, Royals and Twins stand in terms of who’s left to face.

Guardians
Remaining games: 3 at KC, 3 at LAD, 3 at CWS, 4 vs. TB, 4 vs. MIN, 3 at STL, 2 vs. CIN, 3 vs. HOU
Cleveland certainly starts September with a bang, going from a huge series at Kauffman straight to Chavez Ravine for three games against the Dodgers. Series against the White Sox and Rays should be more of a respite, but the Guardians still have to handle the Twins during a four-game home set from Sept. 16-19. They’ll travel to St. Louis before returning home for five games to close out the season, including a three-game series against the Astros to wrap up the regular season. One advantage for the current division leaders? Thirteen of their final 16 games are at home.

Royals
Remaining games: 3 vs. CLE, 3 vs. MIN, 3 at NYY, 3 at PIT, 3 vs. DET, 3 vs. SF, 3 at WSH, 3 at ATL
The Royals have 12 straight games against teams with slim to zero playoff chances, beginning with a three-game set against the Pirates from Sept. 13-15 at PNC Park. Still, though, the Royals tangle with their two division competitors this week before heading to the Bronx for a series against , and the dangerous Yankees. They also close out the year with an unenviable task: three games on the road against the Braves. Kansas City will need to beat up on non-contenders in between while holding its own against tougher foes.

Twins
Remaining games: 3 at TB, 3 at KC, 3 vs. LAA, 3 vs. CIN, 4 at CLE, 3 at BOS, 3 vs. MIA, 3 vs. BAL
The Twins have a fairly tough road slate to close out the season, but at least they have chances to make up ground. Minnesota will travel to both Kansas City and Cleveland as well as to Fenway Park for a three-game set against their nearest AL Wild Card foe in the Red Sox. Most of the Twins’ home series are more manageable, but like the Guardians and Royals, their final test of the year is a doozy. The Orioles will visit Target Field from Sept. 27-29 to close out the 2024 campaign, so the Twins will likely prefer to make their move before that.

It’s hard to say that the schedule favors any one of these three clubs down the stretch, with each team dealt its share of tough games in September -- starting with the Guardians-Royals and Twins-Royals clashes this week. The mid-month four-game Twins-Guardians series at Progressive Field will be crucial, too.

So while Cleveland, by virtue of its current division lead, has a clear edge for now, the AL Central is still very much up for grabs -- something that hasn’t happened in quite a while. No matter who wins, it’s time to sit back and enjoy the fireworks over the season’s final few weeks.