When should you consider selecting a third baseman during your fantasy drafts this season?

Early. Very early.

The cream of this crop includes some of the best players in the world. If you grab someone from these top tiers, you will have a leg up on your competition.

Once those stars are off the board within the first few rounds, there is a clear step down into the next tier of players. And from there, the step becomes more like a cliff, with players at the back end of the position’s top 10 carrying significant risks. You can still mine value in the middle and later rounds, but the range of possible outcomes is vast and sometimes scary.

Tier 1: José Ramírez

You could make an argument for J-Ram as the No. 1 overall draft pick, considering his power-speed blend and position scarcity. Regardless, he likely won’t be available outside of the top five. His Statcast metrics don’t pop out at you, but Ramírez puts up steady, high-level production because he leans into his pull-side power and hits a ton of fly balls. Only National League home run champ Kyle Schwarber (51.1%) had a higher fly-ball rate than Ramírez (50.6%) last season. But unlike Schwarber and many other marquee power hitters, Ramírez piles up the run production without a boatload of strikeouts. His 11% K rate last year tied for ninth in MLB.

The Guardians’ leader complements his potent bat with plus speed and baserunning. He has tallied at least 20 steals in each of the past four full seasons. Given the arrival of bigger bases and Cleveland’s desire to run – the club attempted the fourth-most steals last season – Ramírez could see an increase in stolen bases.

Tier 2: Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Nolan Arenado

The quartet in this tier can provide similar homer and RBI totals to go along with a serviceable batting average. But Machado separates himself as the only one who might obtain double-digit steals. He nabbed 12 bases in 2021 and went 9-for-10 last year. Plus, even though his 24.9% whiff rate was a career-high, Machado has markedly better plate discipline than Devers or Riley. The 2022 NL MVP runner-up should absolutely thrive while batting between names such as Soto, Bogaerts and Tatis Jr. this summer.

Devers slumped throughout last season's second half, thanks in part to a hamstring injury, but still put up a respectable 27 homers with career-bests in wRC+ (140) and K rate (18.6%). Fenway Park will always help him sustain a nice batting average. Entering just his age-26 season, perhaps we have yet to see Devers at his zenith.

In terms of pure power, Riley is unmatched at the hot corner. He routinely annihilated baseballs last year and trailed only Aaron Judge in extra-base hits and total bases. Forty homers are possible for Riley, whose fantasy floor will remain high for as long as he’s in the middle of Atlanta’s loaded lineup.

Like Ramírez, Arenado has focused in recent seasons on pulling more pitches and lifting a greater percentage of them into the air. That approach, coupled with his outstanding bat-to-ball skills, has helped him remain a formidable presence into his 30s. Arenado has recorded at least 30 homers in each of the past seven full seasons. His 151 wRC+ in 2022 was a personal best and ranked seventh among qualified batters.

Tier 3: Alex Bregman, Gunnar Henderson

Bregman is another player who sells out to pull the ball; that’s smart given the short porch in left field at Minute Maid Park. Those pull-heavy ways also mean Bregman could see a statistical bump thanks to the new shift rules. It’s unlikely that he will ever match his 41 homers from 2019, but Bregman provides useful production with elite strikeout and walk rates.

Depending on what you think of Henderson, that aforementioned cliff appears just before or just after him.

It was only 34 games, but Henderson’s 2022 debut contained many positives, including a 53.7% hard-hit rate, 12.1% walk rate, 17.9% chase rate and 91st-percentile sprint speed. Most projection systems, which are conservative by nature, have him putting up 20 homers and double-digit steals this year. The No. 1 prospect in MLB also has eligibility at shortstop, further enhancing his fantasy value.

Tier 4: Max Muncy, Eugenio Suárez, Matt Chapman, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm, Josh Rojas, Josh Jung, Brandon Drury, Ryan McMahon

Muncy’s .196 batting average last year is an eyesore. However, that obscures his hot streak over the season’s final two months. Muncy slashed .247/.358/.500 with 12 homers in 53 games after July 31. An elbow injury suffered on the final day of the ‘21 season might be to blame for his terrible first half. If healthy, Muncy could once again be a difference-maker at the plate. He was at least 30% better than league average as a hitter in 2018, 2019 and 2021, according to wRC+. Fantasy managers can slot him in at second base, too.

Suárez and Chapman don’t have injury excuses for their low averages. They are just bona fide sluggers who swing and miss often. But when they connect, it can be awe-inspiring. Both will likely register upwards of 30 home runs again. However, Chapman probably deserves a slight edge between the two. His sterling defense will keep him in Toronto’s lineup, and his home park is becoming a little friendlier to fly-ball hitters.

Hayes has the skills to be a top-10 player at this position. But will he ever start pulling the ball with regularity? On the bright side, his baserunning – 20 steals last season – makes him a valuable fantasy commodity, even if tops out at 10 homers.

Eligible at both corner infield spots, Bohm has not been able to build upon his 2020 debut season, when he produced a 138 wRC+ and was the runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year. Since then, he’s been a below-average hitter (89 wRC+) who has struggled versus right-handed hurlers (career .682 OPS).

Rojas stole a career-high 23 bases last season. He also logged a double-digit walk rate for the fourth straight year and has shown decent pop at the plate. However, following the signing of Evan Longoria, there may not be 500-plus plate appearances available for Rojas like there were in 2021 and ‘22.

Jung, a top-40 prospect, displayed his 60-grade power when he homered in his first MLB at-bat. He went deep five times in just 102 plate appearances last year, and his 10.2% barrel rate further hints at the life in his bat. He obviously needs to cut down his 38.2% strikeout rate, but the Rangers will give him plenty of opportunities as long as he stays healthy. Jung played in 78 Minor League games in ’21 and only 31 last year due to injuries.

Drury’s stat line with the Angels will probably fall somewhere between his All-Star-caliber first half in Cincinnati last year and his second-half swoon with San Diego. RBI opportunities should be plentiful batting behind Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. He will begin this season as the club’s everyday second baseman.

At least you know what you are going to get when you take McMahon in the later rounds of your draft: At least 20 homers, a decent enough batting average and a handful of steals. There is value in that predictability.